Chad Gaudin, Padres

Baseball is nearing the mid point of its season and you should have a pretty good idea of where you stand in your league.  In a lot of leagues that means THIS is crunch time.  If your team has a shot at winning there is no doubt you have been either looking to trade or pick up players who can gain you in a specific statistical category.  We’ve discussed trading and the various caveats of it in this column fairly extensively.  This is the time of year that you almost have to trade specifically to gain points.  That means taking a hit in value to gain in points if need be.  If you’re way ahead in saves and trailing in home runs time to deal two closers for one power hitter if that’s what the other team is asking. 

However, bear in mind there are some categories that you should just not chase.  Moreover, if you’re hurting in wins, you aren’t going to gain anymore wins by trading a top hitter for a top pitcher at this point.  Wins are fickle.  Let me repeat myself here.  WINS ARE FICKLE!  They are about 1/3 dependent on the starting pitcher.  The other 2/3 depends on the bullpen not blowing the lead and that the starting pitchers team scored enough runs to put him in position to win.  If you can only gain ground in wins you can (and probably should) stream starting pitchers when they have a good match up.  This will at least increase your chances at wins but don’t expect them. 

If you’re chasing wins, these are two pitchers on teams I wouldn’t figure on getting them from:

Dallas Braden, SP Athletics

I don’t usually like to discuss general mixed league players as this is a Treasure Hunting article.  My readers (both of you… thanks mom and dad!) are calling for deep league players who are flying under the radar.  However, since Braden, like Gavin Floyd may have been a few weeks earlier, is still out there in some shallower leagues he’s worth mentioning here.  Why?  Well I’m sure owners of Braden are wondering whether he’s a ‘sell high’ candidate.  Well he doesn’t have the pedigree but let’s be honest at this point: he’s been surprisingly effective. His numbers essentially speak for themselves: 3.26 ERA 1.29 WHIP, an efficient 5.80 strike out per 9 innings rate which has produced 64 punch outs this season.  He’s posting a league average .303 BABIP and 74% strand rate.  However, his fielding independent pitching rate of 3.52 suggests that he will not hold on to a 3.26 ERA forever. The key thing to note is Braden’s numbers are sustainable.  You should expect a bit of a regression but not a huge one.  In other words, he makes for a decent sell high candidate but he won’t kill your team if you’re forced to keep him on your roster either. 

Chad Gaudin, SP Padres

AAAAAAAH!  Not two pitcher recommendations again!  Every time I recommend two pitchers it seems they go out and stink it up in their next outing.  BEWARE!  No really, you should pick up Gaudin.  His K rate is elite (9.42) and he’s got a pretty good home park advantage (pitches in PETCO).  His main issue in the past though has never been his ‘stuff’ or his ability to strikeout opposing hitters.  It has been control (I know, go figure.  A fire-throwing pitcher who’s a little wild.) where he boasts a career 4.21 BB/9.  Lately he seems to have figured it all out.  He’s walked 6 guys in his past 5 games.  That’s pretty good and good for a BB/9 of 2.07.  He’s struck out 32 players in his past 26 innings.  If these numbers aren’t screaming to you ‘pick me up for a good short term starting pitcher’ I don’t know what will.  Ignore his 4.79 ERA as his fielding independent pitching is a solid 3.75, in other words he’s pitching better than his current ERA would suggest.  He’s likely gone in deeper leagues but for the time being he makes a great add in all leagues.

Last week we looked at three players which included outfielders Garrett Anderson and Scott Podsednik as well as Red Sox starter Brad Penny.  Anderson has been 7/21 for a .333 batting average with a home run.  Again with Anderson remember that he’s suffering from a bit of unlucky home run per fly ball rate.  When this improves, (yes I’m convinced it will) he should provide some pop for deeper leagues.  Podsednik has been stellar with 9 hits in 23 at bats (for a .391 batting average) with two steals and a home run.  Continue to ride the hot hand as Podsednik should be owned in almost all leagues.  My man Brad Penny finally gave me some credibility.  He’s struck out 16 in his past 22 and 2/3 innings while allowing only five earned runs.  Again, he’s not going to be a revelation but in deeper or mono leagues he should continue to be useful. 

For those in deeper leagues, sorry to say but I’m not buying Brad Bergeson and John Lannan. They have been too lucky with batting average on balls in play (Bergeson .274 and Lannan .268 with a 77% strand rate).  I’m not suggesting total collapse but bear in mind these pitchers may see some of those hits land sometime soon.  Read |sell| between the |high| lines. 

Casey McGehee is another highly sought after player right now.  Sure he’s got 5 home runs in 110 at bats with a .336 average.  He’s also doing this with a BABIP of .376!  Definitely a short term add given his relatively bland minor league numbers.

Juan Pierre’s usefulness will see an end on Friday as Manny Ramirez will return from pregnancy leave. Wait, sorry that was a steroid suspension.  Pierre is worth hanging on to in deeper leagues but all shallow leaguers might as well pick up Podsednik if they are in need of some short term steals.  Pierre was fantastic while he lasted with a .320 average and nineteen steals.

Well that’s all for me this week.  Happy hunting!