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Is There Value to be Found at the Draft Table?
Is There Value to be Found at the Draft Table?
By Ray Flowers | Published  03/30/2007 | Fantasy Baseball - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Questions that all of us encounter each time we choose a team

 
Amongst pitchers with over 175 IP the past two years, Scot Shields 2.81 ERA is the third best mark in all of baseball. Teammate Hector Carrasco's 2.77 ERA is the second best mark, while Roger Clemens leads baseball with a 2.02 mark. But will Roger pitch this season and if he does will it be in pinstripes or his home town of Houston?

Is There Value to be Found at the Draft Table?

PART II - PITCHERS
(PART 1 - HITTERS)

Contributed By: Ray Flowers

Every year on draft day, and for the matter in the days leading up to the draft, we all must make a series of decisions that impact the outcome of your team as we evaluate players. When do you take your first reliever? Should you wait one more round to see if your "sleeper" falls? Should you draft your second catcher before you take your 4th OF? These are some of the questions that all of us encounter each time we choose a team.

This process is at the heart of the enjoyment of the fantasy game. I don't know about you, but maneuvering at an actual draft is my favorite time of year. Heck, I even enjoy doing mock drafts, but that isn't the main focus here so before I start gushing over all the fun I can have drafting, I will get back to doling out some advice that hopefully can make a difference for you this season.

In what follows I will present two you a two-part look at pitchers. PART I will be a series of fun factoids that might be pretty surprising to you. In the least, they should make for good reading. In PART II, I will breakdown a series of matchups based upon ADP information in my attempt to show you a few players who I believe are being undervalued on draft day compared to their positional counterparts. Where can you find a bargain even if it's only a minor advantage? Remember, no advantage is really too minor, so any time you can chose a player later in the draft than he should rightfully go, you will be in good shape, because on drafts day you should be focused on a players value. In other words, how much of a return will you get for your pick? Hopefully I can help with that.

PART I – FACTOIDS

Amongst pitchers with over 175 IP the past two years, Scot Shields 2.81 ERA is the third best mark in all of baseball. Teammate Hector Carrasco's 2.77 ERA is the second best mark, while Roger Clemens leads baseball with a 2.02 mark.

Over his 4-year career, Kiko Calero has thrown 197.1 innings, about what a top starter would produce in a single season. In that "hypothetical" season, Calero owns a 3.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 217 Ks, verifying just how effective he has been

Randy Johnson will be 43 on opening day, and in the last 50 years, only one pitcher has won more than 13 games (knuckleballer Phil Niekro) and only one pitcher has totaled more than 150 Ks (Nolan Ryan) in a season in which they were 43-years-old.

Chris Capuano is one of only four LHP who has won 10 games with 170 Ks the last 2 years. The others are Johan Santana, Andy Pettitte and Randy Johnson.

Anibal Sanchez was one of just five pitchers who won at least 10 games with an ERA below 3.00 last season.

In 2004 Zack Greinke was the first AL pitcher 20-years or younger to throw 140 or more innings with an ERA under 4.00 since 1974





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