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While Washington stopper Chad Cordero doesn't get the face time that Yankee closer Mariano Rivera gets, Codero's seven wins last season made him valuable.
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PART II - PITCHER
COMPARISONS
***Number in () is the
players Average Draft Position, or ADP, for the week ending on March 24th,
2007. Thanks to MockDraftCentral.com for the information.
CHAD CORDERO (#95) vs.
MARIANO RIVERA (#63)
Cordero (7-4, 3.19 ERA,
69 Ks, 1.10 WHIP, 29 SV in 73.1 IP)
Rivera (5-5, 1.80 ERA, 55
Ks, 0.96 WHIP, 34 SV in 75 IP)
Blasphemy you say comparing
the man widely regarded as the best closer ever to a youngster who hasn't yet
learned that you are supposed to bend the bill of your hat? Here me out. While
Rivera did have more saves and better ratios last year, Cordero had 2 more
wins, struck out 14 more batters and actually limited hitters to a lower BAA
(.215 to .223). If Cordero cuts the 13 HRs he allowed back down to the 8 or 9
that he allowed the previous two seasons, that ERA of his will start to inch a
lot closer to Mariano's mark. Even so, considering they throw such a limited
amount of innings, the difference in their ERAs would negligibly effect your
teams overall ERA. How did they finish last year? In the second half of the
season Rivera had 15 saves with 20 Ks and a 1.03 WHIP in 29 innings, while
Cordero finished up with 16 saves, 26 Ks and a 1.03 WHIP in 31.1 IP. Rivera
deserves to be drafted first, but I'm not sure he is 32 spots better at this
point of their respective careers.
BRETT MYERS (#104) vs.
JEREMY BONDERMAN (#72)
Myers(12-7, 3.91 ERA, 189 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in
198 IP)
Bonderman (14-8, 4.08 ERA, 202 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 214 IP)
Take a look at those numbers
side-by-side if you haven't previously. They posted exactly the same WHIP.
Their ERA's were only slightly different. While their K totals were slightly
apart, they were almost exactly the same per 9 IP (Myers 8.59, Bonderman 8.50).
Their win totals were close as well, as were their ages (Myers 26, Bonderman
24). So, is there really any difference? Since their 2006 seasons were was so
similar, let's compare their 2005 seasons:
Myers(13-8, 3.72 ERA, 208 Ks, 1.21 WHIP)
Bonderman (14-13, 4.57 ERA,
145 Ks, 1.35 WHIP)
You might favor one guy over
the other, and most apparently would choose Bonderman, but really, the numbers
that past two years slightly favor Myers. Certainly, there is no quantifiable
reason that Bonderman should be drafted 32 picks before someone calls out Myers
name, of that much I'm sure.
CURT SCHILLING (#125) vs.
JOHN LACKEY (#71)
Schilling (15-7, 3.97
ERA, 183 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 204 IP)
Lackey (13-11, 3.56 ERA, 190 Ks, 1.26 WHIP in 217.2 IP)
Again, we are looking at a
case of nearly identical stats yet greatly divergent opinions as to the value
of that pitcher for 2007. Though Lackey is going 54 spots before Schilling in
drafts this year, he had fewer wins, more loses, a higher WHIP and a lower K/9 IP
(7.86 to 8.07). Sure Lackey is younger and a better bet to improve in 2007, but
even so, does that justify drafting him so much earlier than Schilling? A key
factor here to look at since their K rates are so similar is the K/BB ratio.
When we make this comparison, well, there is no comparison. In 2006, Lackey's
K/BB ratio was 2.64, a solid number, but Schilling's ratio was simply
tremendous 6.54. Lackey has won at least 13 games for three straight seasons
with at least 190 Ks the past two seasons, and though Schilling was injured in
2005, his last two full seasons have produced 36 wins, 386 Ks and a WHIP of
1.14. However, Lackey has been healthier the past couple of seasons and he is
only 28-years-old, so I won't debate the efficacy of a potential breakout campaign
for him. On the other side of the ledger it is highly unlikely that the
40-year-old Schilling will break out, but if you are playing just for 2007,
does that matter?
FREDDY GARCIA (#235) vs.
TOM GLAVINE (#189)
Garcia (17-9, 4.53 ERA,
135 Ks, 1.28 WHIP in 216.1 IP)
Glavine (15-7, 3.82 ERA, 131 Ks, 1.33 WHIP in 198.0 IP)
Here is an example of
another player from NY who is overvalued partly because of his location.
Obviously Glavine has a more distinguished career as well, but is he really
worth drafting 46 picks before Garcia? Over the past five seasons, Garcia has
thrown more innings (1079.1 to 1029.2), garnered more Ks (790 to 554), allowed
fewer baserunners per 9 IP (11.74 to 12.27) andproduced more wins (72 to 66). Actually, the only major category where
Glavine is ahead is ERA (3.65 to 4.22). Now tell me this, if Garcia follows
this 5-year trend and produces more Ks while striking out more batters and
posting a better WHIP while winning a game or two more, why would you pick
Glavine before him? Don't forget that Glavine is also 41-years-old while Garcia
is a spry, by comparison, 30-years-old. Garcia moves to the NL to pitch for the
Phils, and while his new home park is a good hitters park, his old home in
Chicago was no pitchers park either. The move to the NL figures to lower
Garcia's ERA and WHIP making him the smarter pick amongst this twosome for 2007
provided his biceps tendonitis passes quickly (as it is reported to be doing).
JAVIER VAZQUEZ (#171) vs.
ERIK BEDARD (#136)
Vazquez (11-12, 4.84 ERA,
184 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 202.2 IP)
Bedard (15-11, 3.76 ERA, 171 Ks, 1.35 WHIP in 196.1 IP)
Over the past seven years,
who is the only pitcher to have won 10 games with 150 Ks in each season? That's
right, it's Javier Vazquez. The problem with Vazquez the past couple of years
however is that while most of his numbers say he should be a top flight fantasy
performer, he has failed to produce the results that his arm, and stuff, say he
should. That said, he owns a career 3.25 K/BB ratio, a 7.81 K 9/IP ratio and a
solid 1.27 WHIP. Let's compare those career numbers to what Bedard did last
season, the first season in which he has been a fantasy worthy pitcher because
everyone knows Bedard was great last year, right? Well, would it surprise you
to learn that his "breakout" campaign doesn't even measure up to Vazquez's
career numbers? Here are Bedard's 2006 numbers: 2.48 K/BB ratio, 7.84 K/9IP and
a 1.35 WHIP. Bedard is the hot pick because of the 15 wins he garnered and the
fact that people love youngsters, but the safer pick is certainly Vazquez, and
there is little reason to think that Vazquez doesn't have as much upside in
2007 as well.
