2006 Team Finish: 90-72 – Third Place in the AL Central


Key Additions: RHP David Aardsma, LHP, RHP Gavin Floyd, LHP Gio Gonzalez, LHP John Danks, RHP Nick Masset, RHP Jacob Rasner, LHP Andrew Sisco, C Toby Hall, OF Darin Erstad

Key Losses: RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Brandon McCarthy, LHP Neal Cotts, RHP Dustin Hermanson

To say that the Chicago White Sox were a disappointment last year would be a serious understatement.  The defending World Series Champs suffered from a serious regression from top to bottom in their starting rotation.  2005’s best staff was reduced to mediocrity. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and Joe Crede all hit better than 30 home runs and 90 RBI, and Scott Podsednik stole his usual 40 bases. Looking at those numbers, combined with the fact the Sox were the third highest scoring team in the AL at season’s end, it’s hard to understand how this team fell apart in the second half.  But that’s exactly what happened.  The team went 57-31 in the first half, but only managed to win another 33 games in the second half.


IN THE FIELD

Catcher:  AJ Pierzynski has turned into Paul Lo Duca.  Over the last three seasons combined, his OPS has fallen off about 80 points in the second half.  What’s even worse is his absolutely atrocious plate discipline.  He only saw 3.36 P/PA, while swinging at the first pitch 44% of the time over the last two seasons.  Not only that, but he hacks at 60% of everything thrown at him, and his already weak OBP was padded by the 8 times that he was hit by pitches.  Still, he should hit a HR every 33 PA or so, so he should be a good bet for 15 HR. Don’t let his past or his park push you to overbid though.  His days in the top ten are long gone.

First Base:  Paul Konerko is one of the more consistent power hitters in the American League.  His HR/F ratio has topped 16% in each of the past three seasons, and he’s been a lock to drive better than 100 runs every year.  I wouldn’t expect him to hit .313 again, but .290 is certainly doable, and that’s an average that looks real nice next to 40 homeruns.  His splits are incredibly encouraging, as he posts very nice numbers wherever he hits, whenever he hits, and against whomever he faces.

Second Base:  Tadahito Iguchi’s not a hitting machine.  He’ll probably never top .300, and he won’t post OPS totals over .800.  But he will deliver consistent production from the two hole all year, and their aren’t too many other guys who give you that assurance.  He’ll hit 15 homeruns, steal 15 bases (at an appreciable rate), and walk enough to post a respectable OBP.  He tends to struggle when he’s away from Chicago, but he ended the season on a positive note, posting a .908 OPS after September 1st.

Third Base:  Joe Crede has become a fine two-way player for the Sox.  His big spike in homeruns last season had less to do with an increasing HR/F ratio (it actually declined very slightly), and more to do with staying healthy and seeing nearly 600 PA.  It hurts to look at his walk rate, but he makes good contact, and doesn’t strike out very often. For a guy who may hit 30 homeruns a year, you don’t care if he walks or not.  His average should stay up around .280.  A lot of guys are discounting him this year, making him a solid value pick after the top third basemen are off the board.

Shortstop:  Double homicide aside, Juan Uribe’s walk rate suffered a huge drop-off last season, as it seems he was too focused on trying to power the ball without patience.  This has been a trend his entire career.  His P/PA over the last four seasons: 3.91, 3.83, 3.54, and 3.41.  His percentage of swinging at the first pitch skyrocketed up to 40%, and he posted five more strikes over 50 less PA than his dreadful 2005 campaign.  With his OPS dropping almost 150 points in the last three seasons, you should avoid him at all costs.

OUT IN THE GRASS

Left Field: Aside from his legs and appreciable walk rate, Scott Podsednik has no real value.  The bad news for Podsednik owners is that he’s now over 30 years old, and guys who run amuck on catchers in their twenties don’t last long into their thirties.  The trend has already begun, as his SB success rate has decreased from 84.3% in 2004 to just 67.8% last season.  Anything under 70% is just detrimental to the team, so if this continues, he may begin to see the green light less and less.  He’s hit only three homeruns in close to 1200 PA, but if he can put the ball on the ground more often, he should at least be good for a .280 AVG.

Center Field: Darin Erstad is trying to make a comeback with a new franchise, but he doesn’t hit well enough to lead off anymore, and after the big ankle problems last season, I don’t believe he’ll be stealing many bases either.  He doesn’t walk very often, has little power (even for a CF) and it’s very likely that he’s replaced in center by July.  Much of his value for Chicago is rooted in his defense, but who knows how the ankle will hold up out there.  With an OPS that will be under .650, he’s not worth your time.

Right Field: Big dudes like Jermaine Dye don’t always hold up well into their thirties, but he’s still going to be a big-time run producer in 2007.  His OPS has improved over 200 points since 2004, he walks at a pretty good rate, and he has plate discipline that borderlines on awesome. He’s stayed healthy for the most part over the last three seasons, logging in over 550 PA each year.  It’s unlikely that he’ll hit 44 homeruns again, but you’ll take numbers in the mid-thirties any day.

Designated Hitter:  It’s awfully hard to predict aging sluggers like Jim Thome.  His 2004 and 2006 seasons are eerily similar, but his 2005 season is one of those I’m sure he’d like to forget about.  If he stays healthy, he could hit 40 homeruns again...or maybe he’ll injure something, play half the season and post about 13.  Either way, his walk rates are incredible, and he hits seemingly better than anyone else at home.  He’s typically been going late in drafts this spring, so the value upside for the cost might be too good to pass up.