STARTING PITCHING

Projected Rotation

1.    Jose Contreras, RH
2.    Mark Buehrle, LH
3.    Javier Vazquez, RH
4.    Jon Garland, RH
5.    John Danks, LH

Jose Contreras looks incredibly old these days, and who really knows how old he actually is anyway? But with that diminishing strikeout rate (6.2 K/9 down from 8 in 2004), it’s safe to say he’s on the decline.  His splits are downright mean, with his ERA rising over 2 full runs after the All-Star break.  Mark Buehrle’s a horse, throwing over 650 innings the last three seasons combined, but he’s also suffering from a diminishing strikeout rate (4.3 per 9 IP), and his homerun rate skyrocketed last season. Javier Vazquez looks to establish himself as the best pitcher in Chicago this upcoming season. He’s still a very good pitcher with great K/BB ratios, and he’s cut down on his homerun rate over the last couple of years. His peripherals suggest that he was almost a full run better than his ERA suggests last season. Jon Garland continues to thrive on mediocrity with smoke and mirrors.  Someone will overpay for his bloated win totals from the last two seasons.  Don’t be that guy.  Coming over from Texas in the Brandon McCarthy trade, John Danks has emerged as quite a dark horse, beating out  Gavin Floyd for the fifth spot in the rotation.  He was arguably Texas’ best pitching prospect, and if he can hit his spots and keep the ball down, he could surprise this season.

PROJECTED BULLPEN

Closer:  Bobby Jenks
Setup 1: Mike MacDougal, RH
Setup 2: David Aardsma, RH

Bobby Jenks has some labrum issues at the moment, as evidenced by his drop in velocity in the spring.  The good news is that he probably won’t miss much time this year, and he’s an actual pitcher amongst many throwers in the league these days.  The bad news is that his manager is Ozzie Guillen, and he’s stated that Jenks’ job isn’t as secure as some would believe.  Mike MacDougal’s a solid arm with a very low walk rate, and there’s an excellent possibility that he will vulture some saves at some point this season.  If you own Jenks you have to get MacDougal.

SLEEPER

You’d think that Joe Crede would be listed in the bust section after his power spike last season, but health is the only thing keeping him from being an impact player at the hot corner.  He’s still a sleeper because you can’t fully get away from that balky back, but if you can get this guy late, he’s in the right park and lineup to do some damage.


BUST

Jon Garland just isn’t as good as his record over the last two years would lead you to believe.  He’s not anything close to a strikeout pitcher (there are relievers who strikeout more in a season), he gives up too many homeruns, and his ERA won’t drop below 4.00 again. Someone else will buy the wins, you go ahead and let them.





TOP PROSPECT

Ryan Sweeney is said to be the future in centerfield for the Sox, and the signing of brittle Darin Erstad should be taken for nothing more than a temporary stop gap until 22 year old Sweeney’s ready to claim the position.  He’s never really hit for power, and he doesn’t run at all, so his value to fantasy owners really depends on whether  he develops in those areas with age.

FIRST OFF THE BENCH

Pablo Ozuna has proven to be a valuable utility player that can sub at many positions with good speed upside.  There are enough guys on the Sox with injury questions to warrant taking Ozuna late in AL only leagues in an effort to roster some cheap steals.