2006 Team Finish: 82-80 – Second Place in the NL Central


Key Additions: RHP Woody Williams, OF Carlos Lee, RHP Jason Jennings, RHP Miguel Asencio, 2B Mark Loretta

Key Losses: LHP Andy Pettitte, 1B Jeff Bagwell (retirement), RHP Taylor Buchholz, RHP Jason Hirsch, OF Willie Taveras, INF/OF Aubrey Huff, 2B Joe McEwing, RHP Russ Springer, SP Roger Clemens (??)


The Astros took off early in 2006, going 16-8 in the month of April, but they didn’t have another winning month until August. Of course anytime you’ve got Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, particularly in the NL Central, you figure you’re in a position to make a run. So the team traded for Aubrey Huff with the hopes of getting an offensive boost. Huff floundered initially however, and it wasn’t until the team ran off nine straight victories in September, that it looked like they might be able to catch the Cards.  In the offseason, future Hall of Fame first basemen Jeff Bagwell finally hung up the spikes, after suffering through shoulder injuries for years.  The team signed Carlos Lee to play left and supply the power that the team had seemingly been missing since Bagwell’s premature decline. Lance Berkman will fill Bagwell’s spot at first permanently this season, and the versatile Chris Burke, whom many feel will eventually replace Craig Biggio at second, is now moving to centerfield to replace Willie Taveras who was sent to Colorado along with top pitching prospect Jason Hirsch for Jason Jennings.

The Astros are clearly hoping for the return of Roger Clemens so they can make a legitimate push to return to the Fall Classic.  After ace Roy Oswalt return to New York.  , their rotation is looking very sketchy following Andy Pettitte’sJason Jennings will replace Pettitte in the second spot, aging journeyman Woody Williams will start the season in the number three spot, followed by youngsters Wandy Rodriguez and Matt Elbers. It will take solid production from Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman to keep this team in a lot of games, though third baseman Morgan Ensberg should bounce back after an injury-plagued 2006 season to add some more pop.  Another name to watch for is OF Hunter Pence who is one of the better hitting prospects in the game.  Pence tore up spring training, making a legitimate claim that he is ready for the RF job now. If Luke Scott falters, or the team finds itself in need of another impact bat after the break, there’s no reason to think Pence won’t get the call.

IN THE FIELD

Catcher: All of Brad Ausmus’s value is rooted in his ability to handle pitchers and throw out base-runners.  He walked in just 7.5% of his PA, his HR/F ratios have declined in each of the last three seasons and his OPS dipped below .600 last season.  According to Baseball Prospectus’ VORP method, Ausmus’ 2006 season was the 16th worst season produced since 1960.  There’s no way he’s going to get any better either.  He’s a groundball hitter who hits into a tremendous amount of double plays every year.  The word around baseball is that he makes his pitching staff substantially better. That does nothing for your fantasy roster, and this team is going to need a lot more than Brad Ausmus (Roger Clemens?) to get this staff back to the Series.

First Base: You can’t do much better than Lance Berkman.  In two of the last three seasons, he’s posted an OPS over 1.000, and his BB/K rates have been among the best in baseball.  His HR/F ratio has increased each of the last three seasons, up to 24% last season. He sees a whole lot of pitches, and has logged over 600 PA in five of his last six seasons, scoring 100 runs in four of them.  He was phenomenal on both sides of the break last year, and ended particularly strong, hitting .346 with 17 XBH in September.

Second Base: Despite managing to keep his power numbers up, Craig Biggio is clearly on the last legs of his career.  His OPS dipped down to .727 last season and he’s become no more than a product of Minute Maid Park. Look at these splits: .298-.346-.522 at home with 40 XBH, while hitting just .178-.253-.288 with 14 XBH on the road.  He hit just .201 in the second half, including a drop below the Mendoza line in both August and September.  He doesn’t run at all anymore, so he’s really only good for cheap power at MI in the endgame. But he is a future Hall-of-Famer, and guys at that level get stay around as long as they’d like to, or at least until they get to 3000 hits.

Third Base: It looks as if Morgan Ensberg traded in his XBH for a whole lot of walks, as he set career highs in walks, and hit just 23 HR.  His .235 AVG was largely the result of an unlucky .254 BaBIP.  His OPS is still high enough to merit belonging in the top ten in a shallow NL third baseman pool.  Much of the power he actually did show last season was produced at home, where he posted a .929 OPS against just a .782 mark away from Houston.  His power outage was likely due to nagging injuries that wore on him as the season progressed.  He put up nine homeruns in April, eight in May, and then had three straight months where he hit just one.  He should be able to bring up his average, and if the health issues are fully behind him, he makes a phenomenal sleeper pick for power as well.

Shortstop:  Adam Everett is to shortstop what Brad Ausmus is to catching.  He doesn’t run very often anymore, his walk rates are terrible, he doesn’t hit for power, and he just finished his second straight season with an OPS under .700. How can Houston have two hitters like this in their lineup?  He plays solid defense at short, so he is valuable if you own Houston pitchers. Well, the pitchers get a boost in value anyway.

OUT ON THE GRASS

Left Field:  Carlos Lee had a very good season in 2006, posting an .895 OPS between Milwaukee and Texas.  Not surprisingly, his rate statistics were amazing in Texas, which led to the big contract that he received from Houston.  Unfortunately, Carlos Lee is slowing down and nearing the end of his prime, so won’t be stealing bases for very much longer.  A .280 AVG with 29 homeruns sounds about right to me.  Not enough to offset Everett and Ausmus’ presence in the lineup, but he will provide some protection for Berkman.

Center Field:  27 year old player for those believers out there!  In his first full season in the big leagues, Chris Burke hit well enough to earn a starting spot for 2007, but not well enough to be considered a legitimate fantasy outfielder. The majority of his homeruns came on the road, and the few walks that he did manage last season were padded by 14 HBP’s; so he actually walked just a little over 3% of the time. Position flexibility is his strength, but he’s nothing special even if you can slot him at second.

Right Field:  Luke Scott posted amazing numbers across the board in a part-time role in 2006. Most of his production came at home, where he posted a 1.267 OPS.  He’s not going to slug .812 at home again, and at age 29, time is running out for Scott who needs a couple of good years to stay in baseball.  He’ll should contribute enough to keep his starting job this year, and hitting around 25 homeruns isn’t out of the question.