STARTING PITCHING

Projected Rotation

1.    Roy Oswalt, RH
2.    Jason Jennings, RH
3.    Woody Williams, RH
4.    Wandy Rodriguez, LH
5.    Matt Elbers, RH

Roy Oswalt is one of the best three starting pitchers in baseball.  He consistently logs in over 200 Innings, and last year he struck out 7.2 K/9 IP, while walking less than two batters per nine innings, and giving up less than one HR/9.  Over the last two seasons combined, he has a 350/86 K/BB ratio.  Unbelievable.  He’s slightly better in Minute Maid Park, where he posted a 93/16 K/BB ratio. 

Jason Jennings was plenty happy to get out of Colorado until he found out he was headed to Houston, another homer friendly environment. His HR/9 have dropped steadily over the last three seasons, while his K/9 have slightly increased. His BB/9 have decreased slightly, but he’s still not much more than an innings eater until he proves otherwise.  He wasn’t as good as his ERA suggests last season, and in a tougher division, things aren’t likely to get any easier. Woody Williams is a journey man that can’t be viewed as anything more than a place holder for Roger Clemens, Fernando Nieve or Brandon Backe. Wandy Rodriguez and Matt Elbers don’t have enough experience to inspire any level of confidence. If one of the two of them can step up and pitch effectively with consistency, the Astros might have enough offense to make a run at the end of the summer.


PROJECTED BULLPEN

Closer: Brad Lidge, RH
Set-up 1: Dan Wheeler, RH
Set-up 2: Chad Qualls, RH

Brad Lidge’s K/BB numbers over the last three seasons have been among the best in all of baseball (364/89).  He doesn’t give up too many homeruns, but he has blown ten saves over the past two seasons.  There’s no way he was as bad as his ERA would’ve suggested last season, and if he ends up getting dealt, it could be the best thing for him. Though, even if he doesn’t, 12.75 K/9 over five seasons is a skill set that you have to take the risk on.

Brad Lidge isn’t the only power arm at the end of Houston’s pen. Dan Wheeler also strikes out more than a batter per inning, he doesn’t give up many homeruns, and he has a low walk rate. If and when Lidge melts down again, Wheeler is the guy that steps in, and as such, he’s a mandatory handcuff to Lidge when drafting.

SLEEPER

Morgan Ensberg is going to hit 30 homeruns again in 2007.  He’s simply too good of a hitter to be slipping as far as he is in drafts this spring.  It came out after the season that he was battling through injuries all year, but that he’s now healthy.  At the prices he’s going for, he could easily be the sleeper that puts you over the top this season.

BUST

Chris Burke simply isn’t that good.  There’s a buzz around him as Biggio’s eventual successor, and now that he’s got OF eligibility, people are bumping him up their draft boards even further. The problem is that the production will simply not match what he’ll likely go for.  He’s a back up infielder or a third MI at best, and mixed leaguers have no business starting him in the OF for any reason other than injury.

TOP PROSPECT

Hunter Pence is a professional hitter who will make an impact as soon as he gets the call, in the same way that Nick Markakis did for the Orioles in 2006.  His three year average in the minors is .302-.376-.932, he has good power and speed (28 homeruns, 17 stolen bases last year in AA), and he killed the ball in Astros camp all spring.  Keeper league owners take note, this guy is legit.

FIRST OFF THE BENCH

Mark Loretta will likely see the most time off the bench, filling in at second for Biggio, at third for Ensberg, and he could even see time at first when Berkman takes an occasional day off.  Loretta is a veteran with versatility and a decent bat, and that’s the kind of guy that managers like Phil Garner love to plug in.