Bronson Arroyo, Reds

With as much as is on the line now, I am only going to recommend additions that I feel fairly strongly about.  From here until the end of the season, you can be expecting to see in-depth qualitative analysis rather than brief quantitative write-ups on the players involved.

 

Clearly, then, these players are not going to help you simply chase steals or saves while giving you little else.  As with any pick up, there is risk involved, but these three men are the best widely available players out there right now.

 

 

Bronson Arroyo – SP – Cincinnati Reds (49% Y! Plus, 26% Y!, 24.0% ESPN)

It’s no secret that Arroyo has seen better days.  Then Dusty Baker rode him like he was an immortal pack mule.  Since that 2006 season in which Arroyo put up an ERA+ of 142 in 240.2 IP, he has been insanely average, sporting ERA+ of 110 and 95 in 2007 and 2008.

 

Until July 10^th of this season, Arroyo wasn’t even average.  His ERA was a dismal 5.85.  In those 103 IP, he was allowing opponents to hit .299/.367/.511/.878 with 21 HR, striking out just 54 to the 41 walks he had allowed. 

 

From July 10^th on, Arroyo has started nine games.  In those games, he has maintained a 2.19 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP while sporting a much more palatable 40:14 K:BB.  He has also cut down on the HR/9—1.83 prior to July 10^th, 0.69 since July 10^th.  Yes, he still doesn’t strike guys out, but he never really has.  That didn’t stop him from enjoying success in 2006, and he is currently riding a nine-game stretch of solid starts including two complete game shut-outs and now has six straight quality starts.  He’s not a sexy add, but he could provide you with some ERA and WHIP help while giving you a shot at a win.     

 

 

Matt Diaz – LF, RF – Atlanta Braves (36% Y! Plus, 13% Y!, 10.1% ESPN)

It seems like in each of the past four years, Matt Diaz has managed to make himself valuable to fantasy owners for a few weeks.  At first look, it would appear that much of his production has come at the expense of left-handed pitching, making his immediate addition a dicey proposition given that at least three of the next four Braves games have them facing right-handed pitching.  If one were to make a claim that Matt Diaz’ value was directly dependent upon his facing southpaws, they’d have his platoon splits to back them up (career .284/.332/.398/.730 split and a 79 tOPS+ against righties compared to his .343/.378/.531/.909 split with a 121 tOPS+ versus lefties).

 

To say his value is only as a lefty-mashing platoon splitter would be a little short-sighted.  Obviously, there is a significant platoon split here, but over his career he has also profiled as a player who thrives on actually receiving playing time.  Roughly half of his nearly 1300 career plate appearances have come against righties.  In over 200 PAs off the bench, his tOPS+ is 73 and his ratio split is .293/.311/.399/.710.  Obviously, off the bench Diaz is going to be utilized to face LHP, yet his success in that scenario is not at all in line with his platoon splits. 

 

Since the departure of Jeff Francoeur, Diaz has gotten the lion’s share of playing time in right field, getting the start in 23 games in August alone.  The result:  a split of .416/.464/.708/1.172 with 17 R, 6 HR, 18 RBI, and 3 SB.  Sure, his BABIP has been .456, but the man has been red hot.  With a week to go before H2H playoffs begin in most formats, such a hot streak is hard to scoff at.    

 

 

Andy Marte – 1B, 3B – Cleveland Indians (11% Y! Plus, 3% Y!, 0.9% ESPN)

To say Andy Marte was a highly-touted prospect would be an understatement.  In 2005, Marte was ranked ninth on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list.  After a somewhat disappointing 2005 campaign, he was knocked down to 14^th for the 2006 list.  He was so highly thought of that he yielded Edgar Renteria in a trade with the Red Sox during the 2005-2006 off-season.  He was then the key prospect in the trade that sent Coco Crisp to patrol centerfield in Fenway.  The catch here, is that he has yet to truly live up to his top prospect status. 

 

Having made his ML-debut at the ripe age of 21 in 2005, it can be easy to forget that someone who has been on the scene for parts of five seasons is still only 25 years old.  That being said, his five-year career can largely be characterized as an abject failure.  His 162-game average over his young career is .221/.277/.353/.630 with 49 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, and 1 SB.  It should be said, however, that in five seasons he has only amassed 196 games played and 647 plate appearances.  As Nelson Cruz proved last year, sometimes all a player needs to shed that Quad-A label is actual playing time at the big league level.  Now that both Ryan Garko and Victor Martinez are out of the picture in Cleveland, Marte looks to be in line for nearly all of the playing time at first. 

 

Perhaps having sensed that this stint with the Indians could be his last chance, Marte has seen fit to step up his game.  In his past 10 games, he has hit .417/.425/.750/1.175 with three dingers, six runs, and 12 driven in.  That has raised his season split to .289/.349/.461/.809.  Keeper leaguers may want to look even harder at the former prospect, as there could be some serious long-term yields here.    

 

 

Josh Duggan welcomes your comments at mister.josh.duggan@gmail.com.  If you are going to heave insults in his direction, at least be funny and creative.  He is also the author of a Kansas City Royals blog, Royalscentricity (which is also syndicated at Bleacher Report, where he is a featured Royals columnist), and a pop culture blog, Inconsiderate Prick, and is a dues paying member of the FSWA.