Chase Utley, Phillies

Second base is no longer the fantasy black hole it once was.  In years past, the position seemed stocked with just a few star-caliber players and a host of also-rans.  Yet in 2009, no fewer than ten 2B-eligible players reached the 20 home run plateau, with four actually topping 30. The power trend represents a transitions away from the speedy, often plucky middle infielders of the past.

Speed was once the one commodity that a number of second basemen shared, but the stolen base seems to have fallen out of favor in 2009 with only two players reaching 30 steals.  However, more than one SB threat was injured last year, so a resurgence in speed at the position is possible, assuming those injured players can be nursed back to health. 

2010 should see standard, 12-team leagues facing little difficulty in finding at least a satisfactory selection among 2B-eligible players.  For the patient owner, we can expect a few more players to transition to the position as well, making it even deeper and more diverse.  The early returns from 2010 mock drafts suggest that there are seven players who qualify for 2B being drafted among the first 50 picks.  That’s a big leap forward from the days of yesteryear.

TOP 20:

1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies.  He’s the only 2B being drafted in the first round of all mock drafts, and for good reason.  Among second basemen, there’s only one player that could be considered a virtual lock for 30 HR and 100 RBI, and that’s Utley.  Even in a season following offseason hip surgery, he led all full-time second sackers in OPS at .905.  His 23 steals were a career high, and while he may not equal those numbers again, the rest of his game remains unsurpassed at his position.  

2. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers.  Despite a .253 average in 2009 (.245 BABIP), Kinsler was still among the elite of fantasy players, and not merely as a second baseman.  He was baseball’s only 30/30 player, and for a MI, that’s a special attribute indeed.  He’s averaged under 130 games per season over a four year MLB career, so he’s still an injury risk, but the upside is just too much to pass up, especially with a positive batting average correction likely looming.

3. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds.  Easily the best second base option in the National League because of his rare combination of power and speed.  He’s surpassed 20 HR and 20 SB in each of the last three seasons, a fact that ROTO owners in particular simply cannot overlook.  His 2009 12.8 K% was a career best (low), and despite reaching a career high with a 7% BB rate, he still has some trouble getting on base and had “only” .329 OBP—really his only drawback.

4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox.  The former AL MVP slipped a bit in 2009, to the surprise of few.  Really, how do you follow up an MVP season?  The greatest disappointment for Pedroia owners was the .030-drop in batting average.  Pedroia’s MVP campaign (and much of his fantasy value) was and is predicated upon his ability to maintain a high batting average.  He’s a virtual lock for 110 runs and 20 SB, but he’ll have to maintain an AVG in the neighborhood of .320 if he’s to justify his current ADP of 38.71.

5. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles.  He’ll enter 2010 with three consecutive 100+ run, .800+ OPS seasons under his belt with no reason to think he’ll come up short in either department.  His stolen base totals have fallen each of the last two years, from a high of 50 in 2007 to just 30 last year.  This might be reason for concern if not for the increased power Roberts exhibited in 2009 (16 HR). He’s hit as many as 18 home runs in a given season, so coupled with his obvious speed, he’s a gifted player indeed.

6. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees.  Cano is known for his slow starts, but he had a more than competent start to 2009 en route to career highs in home runs (25) and hits (205).  And, despite leading all qualifying second baseman in batting average (.320), he’s actually overlooked on a team of superstars.  He leaves a lot to be desired on the base paths with only 5 steals, but he’s strong enough at the plate that his owners will hardly notice.

7. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays.  Zobrist was something of a late bloomer, playing in just his first full season at age 28.  His .253 ISO over 198 Major League at bats with the Rays in 2008 was a preview of things to come.  Zobrist broke out in a big way in 2009 with 27 HR, 91 R, 91 RBI, and 17 SB.  Perhaps even more impressive was his walk rate of 15.4%, one that punctuated an OPS of .928.  Qualifying at three positions in most leagues (2B, SS, and OF), he’s listed here among the second basemen because he played the majority of his games and because teammate and fellow 2B Akinori Iwamura was traded to the Pirates.  The only question remaining is…can Zobrist repeat his success?

8. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays. Hill showed he was a capable source of power back in 2007 when he crept up on everyone with a 17 HR season.  After missing most of 2008 with an injury, he came back with a vengeance.  Hitting 36 home runs while scoring and driving in more than 100 runs (the only 2B to do so), it’s safe to say that Aaron Hill had a career year in 2009. It’s also fairly safe to say that he’s unlikely to repeat that level of production any time soon.  This isn’t to suggest he’s not good, in fact, quite the contrary.  He’s still a valuable (top 10) commodity, just scale back expectations after his gargantuan 2009.

9. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins.  Power…that’s what Dan Uggla brings.  He’s a career .257 hitter and has fallen well below that mark in two of the last three years.  Assuming owners can swallow that pill, Uggla will reward them with the 30 HR and 90 RBI that he’s averaged over his four-year career.

10. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners.  Lopez opened a lot of eyes in 2008 with a .297 AVG 17 HR and 98 RBI.  He “slumped” to a .272 AVG in 2009, but made up for it by climbing to 25 HR (T6 among 2B) and 96 RBI (3^rd at his position). At just 26 years old, there’s still room for growth in his game, and for those that missed out on the bigger names from larger markets, Lopez isn’t a bad consolation prize.

11. Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox.  A 3B among the 2B rankings?   The White Sox had already committed to moving Beckham off of 3B prior to the acquisition of Mark Teahen.  The trade with Kansas City only serves to reinforce the move and ensure that the young (23) Beckham will qualify at second sooner rather than later.  The upside of his combination of power and speed has prospective owners salivating over what could be a 20+ HR season with double digit steals.  The 3B eligibility that carries over from 2009 doesn’t hurt his case here either.

12. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels.  Kendrick does two things like clockwork: hit for average and get injured, both of which he did again in 2009.  A career .302 hitter (.322 in 2007), Kendrick has always been a quality source of AVG.  Things looked bright for him again in 2009 as his skills all seemed to be developing in step with one another as he was just one of seven second basemen to reach double digit totals in home runs and stolen bases.  However, injuries once again limited him to just 105 games, which, sadly, represented a career high.  If he finally stays healthy, big things are possible.

13. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians.  Cabrera took a big step forward in 2009, hitting .308 with 17 steals.  There’s little to no power, but a good eye at the plate (.361 OBP) indicates that he has a knack for getting on base.  Getting on base is step one en route to scoring runs, something he did 81 times in 131 games last year.  Another step forward and a double digit HR, 20 SB season isn’t out of reach.

14. Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies.  He’s a poor-man’s Dan Uggla, and like Uggla, 2B is probably not the position he’s best suited for.  Accordingly, the Rockies plan to move his 25 HRs to the hot corner in 2010, replacing Garrett Atkins who departed for Baltimore.  Stewart can frustrate owners with his low average, and dry spells are to be expected.  Yet with middle infield power in short supply, Stewart offers as much HR potential as anyone from that standpoint.

15. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers.  “Potential” is a word used to describe those who have yet to realize it, and Weeks certainly fits the mold.  For every ounce of potential Weeks has shown, he’s yielded two ounces of fantasy frustration.  Oft injured and only infrequently productive, Weeks seemed to be putting it together in 2009 before a wrist injury ended his season after just 37 games.  But, in those 37 games (147 at bats) he compiled 9 HR and a .857 OPS.  Assuming he’s A. healthy and B. motivated, Weeks could finally have the season everyone’s been expecting.

16. Martin Prado, Atlanta Braves.  After showing great promise as a rookie in 2008 by hitting .320 in 78 games, Prado showed he could sustain that success by hitting .307 in 128 games in 2009.  He reached double-digit home runs (11), but no one would consider him a power threat.  Also consider the fact that last season’s .822 OPS was higher than some second basemen that appear higher in the rankings.  And, Prado qualifies at first and third base, for what it’s worth.

17. Clint Barmes, Colorado Rockies.  Yes, it’s possible to have two Rockies among the 2B rankings.  With the afore-mentioned Stewart moving to 3B, Barmes is likely to fill the void at second, and both already qualify.  Although it’s difficult to know which Clint Barmes will show up in 2010 (the .290 AVG one from 2008 or the 23 HR one from 2009), it’s clear that the talent to do a number of things is there.  Should he put it all together and stay healthy, Barmes could offer owners a lot of value.

18. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee Brewers.  It’s hard not to like a player that hit .310 with 16 HR in only 355 big league at bats, especially when he qualifies at 2B.  McGehee will likely open the season at 3B for the Brewers with a healthy Rickie Weeks getting the nod at second.  Much of his production seemed out of step with his minor league track record where he never hit .300 or surpassed even 12 long balls, so the player that seemed like an oasis as a rookie could very well be a mirage.  Still, with the power he showed in 2009, he’s worth the minimal risk.

19. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia Phillies.  Polanco is as close to the middle of the road as one could possible imagine.  Aside from his .303 career batting average, Polanco doesn’t do anything particularly well.  Never a power or stolen base threat, Polanco’s value is tied to his ability to stay healthy (which he does) and that AVG, which has declined sharply each of the past two years, from .341 in 2007, to .307 in 2008, to .285 last year.  He’s moving to a more demanding position in Philadelphia (3B), so it’s possible his impeccable health could decline too.

20. Chris Getz and Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City Royals.  After coming over from the Chicago White Sox, Getz will compete with Callaspo for the starting 2B job.  And, why not?  Even with a middling batting average (.261 in 2009), he was one of only three second basemen to top 30 steals.  If he continues to run with the Royals, those steals could become quite valuable, especially in ROTO leagues.  However, Callaspo is coming off a nice season of his own, one in which he hit .300 with a .813 OPS.  Moreover, his 52/51 BB/K shows that he’s clearly a patient hitter.  Both players will play and both have value, with the amount determined by playing time.