Albert Pujols, Cardinals

One of the most critical positions in fantasy baseball is often one of the deepest. First base has long been regarded as one of the few positions you can ‘wait’ on. In other words, if you’re debating between a top-tier first baseman and say, a top shortstop, you may want to think about getting the shortstop. I’m not a big fan of position scarcity as a draft method but first base is one of the positions I’m not afraid to draft later. However, if you plan on taking the “best available player”, you may end up with several of the top first basemen on your squad-- the top five at this position are also considered amongst the top 20 overall. If you’re looking for speed, first base is a position that generally does not supply it-- but if you’re looking for some power and batting average, these players are a huge asset.

To recap:

·         Deepest position in fantasy baseball

·         Speed is an asset at the position but it’s mostly dominated by high average, big power number types.

·         You can wait until later if you miss out on the elite. Even the 20^th ranked player in our rankings is capable of 25 home runs.

Top 20 Players:

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals - The #1 pick in most fantasy drafts, Pujols is a beast who can keep your team in all 5 offensive categories. There is nothing to persuade you to select any other player with your first pick overall. Last season he hit .327-47-135 with 16 stolen bases tossed in. With Matt Holliday in tow for protection in the line up, Pujols should once again be the #1 ranked fantasy baseball player.

2. Prince Fielder - Brewers - Although many might select others ahead of him, Fielder is a fantastic #2 option at 1^st base if only for his phenomenal power. With so few players able to hit over 40 home runs, Fielder suddenly becomes a scarce commodity. Obviously not a runner (how many first base options really are?) he’ll get you few stolen bases. Still his batting line from last year .299-46-141 is enough to warrant a first round draft choice. Heck you can get steals later in the draft.

3. Mark Teixeira - Yankees - With a ball park that plays to his strengths and a year under his belt in the Big Apple what’s not to like about Mark Teixeira this season?  His first full season in the Bronx was far from a disappointment (.292-39-122). What’s astounding is the possibility that he could beat those numbers in 2010. As safe a pick as any in the first two rounds.

4. Miguel Cabrera - Tigers - I’m sure that there were a few who were actually disappointed with Miggy’s .324-34-103 line of 2009. What’s insane is that Cabrera is just entering his prime and has become a model of consistency throughout his career. He’ll hit way about .300, get you 30+ home runs and drive in 100 with a smattering of steals. A no brainer pick and debatably the second first baseman that needs to come off the board.

5. Ryan Howard - Phillies - With over 40 home runs the past 3 seasons, Howard is known as one of the most consistent power hitters available. The big caveat with Howard is his batting average. Despite be amongst the league’s elite home run hitters every year, his .279 batting average from last season was his highest since 2006. This is due the large amount of strikeouts he tallies each season (186 last season was his lowest in 3 seasons). He’s the sure fire 5^th first baseman taken as the others above him in the ranks are all .295+ hitters.

6. Justin Morneau - Twins - What to make of Justin Morneau?  One season he’s hitting for average, the next for power. Last season he was a nudge unlucky with batting average on balls in play (.278) which likely lead to his relatively lacklustre (compared to the others ranked above him) line of .274-30-100. I would bet he easily matches these numbers and improves on his average in 2010.

7. Lance Berkman - Astros - Berkman would be amongst the elite at this position if he could only stay healthy. This is what makes him such an interesting pick. Despite missing more than 20 games last season he still hit 25 home runs and knocked in 80 runs. Berkman is an OBP beast who is always around the .400 mark which gives him extra value in leagues that count on base percentage as a category.

8. Adrian Gonzalez - Padres - Adrian Gonzalez is a monster. If he played in any other park we’d be discussing him amongst the top 5 at the position. Despite playing in one of the worst hitters parks in the majors, Gonzalez still managed 40 home runs. He hit .277 with a relatively low BABIP of .280, meaning he’ll likely improve in 2010. He’s just entering his prime (28 years old) and should make for a nice upside pick in the early rounds of drafts.

9. Kevin Youkilis - Red Sox - After a couple of mediocre seasons, Youkilis has progressed into a fine hitter. He’s coming off his second 25+ home run season. Last season despite missing 26 games, he hit .305-27-94. Like Berkman, he’s got a great batting eye which has given him the moniker the ‘Greek God of Walks’. This makes  him a stronger option for those playing in on base percentage leagues.

10. Derrek Lee - Cubs - After two seasons of less than 22 home runs, Lee came out of nowhere last season to hit 34. The increase was largely due to a swing that put 45% of the balls he hit into the air. He finished with a line (.304-34-111) circa 2005 which leads many to think is he for real?  At 35 years old, I wouldn’t look for a repeat of 2009 but his annual .300 average and run driving in bat should benefit many fantasy teams this year.

11. Joey Votto - Reds - The first baseman with the most upside is likely Canadian born Votto. He’s just 27 years old this season and finally came into his own last year despite a long bout with dizziness. His .322-25-80 and 4 stolen bases from 2009 are a sign of things to come. He’s the rare first baseman who can get you some stolen bases without sacrificing much power. A fantastic pick for those looking for a large return on a smaller investment.

12. Adam Dunn - Nationals - Looking for 40 home runs later in the draft?  Look no further than Adam Dunn who for the first time since 2004 hit slightly less than his standard 40 ( he finished with a higher batting average though .267-38-105). What Dunn brings in power, he basically negates in batting average.   He’s a career .249 hitter. However, by the time you’re looking for more power, you should be loaded with good batting average types right?  Despite a bad average, Dunn does get on base a lot (.398 in 2009) and can help in leagues that count the statistic.

13. Kendry Morales - Angels - Mr. Break Out 2009, Kendry Morales will come with a lot of expectations for 2010. Was his awesome .306-34-108 line a thing of reality?  A as a prospect he was always touted as a high average, high power player . He was consistently above the .320 mark in the minors. Despite his talent, there was never a position for him in the majors for full time at bats until last year. Morales will turn 27 this year and there is a ton to like here. Don’t overlook him.

14. Carlos Pena - Rays - As with Adam Dunn, Pena is a home run threat with fantastic on base skills. Last season saw a huge dip in batting average (overall line of .227-39-100) which was mostly due to a severely unlucky .253 batting average on balls in play. I would expect a big rebound in the batting average department for Pena in 2010.  This was the second season in a row that Pena suffered a longer term injury so keep your expectations lower.

15. Chris Davis - Rangers - What to make of Chris Davis?  Is he a huge batting average and strikeout liability?  Or is he a gigantic masher just young enough to have not quite hit his potential?  The 24 year old gets a full time gig in 2010 and now with more confidence should continue to improve upon his 21 home runs from last season. Davis comes with the added bonus of playing in Texas. This is where the long, hot summers produce plenty of long balls, of which Davis is an expert in generating.

16. Todd Helton - Rockies - There were many that though Todd Helton was done. After an injury riddled 2008 where Helton was a shell of his former self (he hit .264-7-29), he rebounded in a big way as a 34 year old with a .325-15-86 line. He’s shown that he still has the same set of skills (he had a ridiculous .416 OBP) that have made him one of the league’s best hitters. There is virtually no upside here but Helton continues to hit in a great ball park for batters. He’s still a nice source of batting average who can be had late.

17. James Loney - Dodgers - James Loney is a similar player to Todd Helton expect that he’s on the good side of 30. He’s just 26 years old this season and could be a breakout candidate. Despite producing his worst batting average of his major league career (.281) he improved his walk and strike out rates (10.7% and 11.8%). He also had his worst luck with batting average on balls in play (he’s had a career .317 only to have .301 in 2009). I’m not convinced the power will ever be there but 20 home runs and a .295-.310 average should begin to be the norm for Loney going forward.

18. Nick Johnson - Yankees - There is no doubting that Nick Johnson can hit. Its always been a question of health. A career .273 hitter, Johnson has averaged less than 100 games played over 8 major league seasons. In three seasons where he played the most games, Johnson hit over .290 in two of them (barely missing in one). Signed by the Yankees to primarily DH, the oft-injured first baseman will be counted on to perform. He makes for an interesting sleeper pick if he’s healthy as he’ll see plenty of RBI opportunities in a potent New York lineup.

19. Paul Konerko - White Sox - A huge disappointment in 2008, Konerko stormed back to reach .277-28-88. The White Sox primary first baseman is still effective and will make for an interesting pick later in the draft. Why?  He plays in a fantastic park for hitters and because of his age (34) will likely be left on the draft board a bit longer. Konerko is a great example of the depth available at the position in 2010.

20. Adam LaRoche - Diamondbacks - Recently signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks, LaRoche joins a talented but underachieving team. Like Konerko, he’s a good option for those who missed out on the top tier talent. LaRoche is a career .274 hitter who should easily reach 25 home runs again in 2010. At 31 years of age, LaRoche is in the prime of his career and you should expect similar statistics to those of 2009. LaRoche is a terrible spring hitter (.195 career April batting average) who comes on later in the season. If you’re in an inexperienced league, it makes sense to wait until June and then trade for him rather than draft him.