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Sports Grumblings -
http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/baseball/articles
2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit: Outfield
http://www.sportsgrumblings.com/baseball/articles/articles/1317/1/2010-Fantasy-Baseball-Draft-Kit-Outfield/Page1.html
Josh Duggan
 Utterly
unemployable as a English major, Josh had nowhere to turn but the
not-so-fantasy-world of fantasy sports. Putting down the
books that damned him to a lifetime of menial jobs, he set forth on a
voyage that would take him through the crests and troughs--the
surprises and letdowns--the failures and successes that at once madden
and excite us all. So obsessed did he become that he decided
to shun the fickle mistress fantasy football for the games
which allowed for his drive and determination to beat his opponents
into bloody pulps. For him there were more successes than
failures, though, and that is where you and he shall meet. By Josh Duggan
Published on 02/3/2010 |
 Ryan Braun, Brewers |
While
the first thing that comes to your mind when thinking about The Outfield is
surely about what conspired because Josie went “on a vacation far away,” a
little known fact is that The Outfield is not simply a totally righteous
band. It is also where you can go to
address your statistical shortcomings in this coming draft.
Now,
invariably as your next draft plays out, you will find that some of the tougher
decisions you make will cause a chain of events that will result in a man in
As
was the case last season, the following applies to the outfield…
In the outfield, the cagey owner can
address his or her weaknesses because there is:
There
is a bevy of multi-faceted talent just waiting to be exploited by you. As there are seemingly different types of
players (sluggers, power/speed combo, burners) filling out rosters across
baseball, even leagues employing a position-specific outfielder format are not
going to hinder you from filling the gaps like Adrian and Rocky filled each
other’s.
Read
on, and I’ll give you the keys to fill in your gaps.
 Matt Holliday, Rockies |
The Top 50
1.
Ryan Braun (Mil) – The Hebrew Hammer
just turned 26. Over the course of his
first almost three seasons, his 162-game average is .308/.363/.574/.937 with 40
HR, 19 SB, 114 R, and 122 RBI. Now those
numbers are certainly helped out by his monster rookie campaign on a May 25th
call-up, but this is typically where players are entering into their prime, and
he hasn’t really missed any time to injury, so maybe those 162-game averages
are a pretty good indicator of what we can expect from Braun this season.
2.
Matt Holliday (StL) – I doubt that
anyone thinks Holliday is going to hit a slash line of .353/.419/.604/1.023 in
his first full season in
3.
Matt Kemp (LAD) – At the ripe old
age of 25, Matt Kemp looks to be your best bet for a 30/30 member out from the
2010 crop of outfielders. As his selectivity
at the plate has improved, his numbers have improved. Coming off a 26 HR, 34 SB, and
.297/.352/.490/.842 campaign in which his ISO jumped .025 from the year prior,
another step forward on the power front should be expected.
4.
Justin Upton (Ari) – The younger
5.
Grady Sizemore (Cle) – He can’t be that bad, can he? He had arthroscopic elbow surgery and lower abdominal surgery in the off-season,
and those were both reportedly the needed because of injuries sustained in
Spring Training. While it is no safe bet
to assume full recovery from injury, Sizemore did hit 33 HR and steal 38 bases
in 2008, and he won’t be 28 until August.
30/30 talent (proven not imagined) cannot be overlooked for too long in
the draft.
6.
Carl Crawford (TB) – The days of
projecting him as a threat join to the 25/75 club (as its only member) are
past, but his speed is ever so real. He
is still only 28, so maybe the power jumps up a little bit, but any such
development would simply be gravy. He
put his disappointing injury-ridden 2008 campaign behind him last season. At the All-Star Break, he was on a blistering
82-stolen-base pace. Let’s cross our
fingers and hope for the best.
7.
Nelson Cruz (
8.
Adam Lind (Tor) – While it is
entirely possible that I could beat Adam Lind in a foot race, his value is not
derived from his speed. His
quadruple-slash line of .305/.370/.562/.932 delivered on the promise he showed
in 2008. His 46 2B, 35 HR, 93 R, and 114
RBI put an exclamation point on that delivery.
Given his impressive .257 ISO, his .326 BABIP was not out of line. Now, perhaps his .257 ISO will show to be an
extreme outlier, but Lind turns 27 in July.
It is reasonable to expect that he grew into his power. Passing over him in the draft could be
costly.
9.
Ben Zobrist (TB) – Having played 59
games in right (37 starts), seven in center (five starts), and nine in left
(two starts) in 2009, Zobrist is likely OF-eligible in your league. While he certainly carries more value at
second—or short, depending on your league’s rules, where he played 13 games
(six starts)—his value in terms of flexibility cannot be underestimated. In 2009, he displayed great discipline at the
dish. His BB/K was 0.88. His O-Swing% was a scant 19.3%. His BABIP of .330 wasn’t aberrant given his
speed, power, and plate discipline. A
repeat of his .297/.405/.543/.948 line and 28 2B, 7 3B, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, and
91 RBI is a plausible outcome for his 2010 campaign.
10. Manny Ramirez (LAD) – A 50-game suspension and earthly
numbers have hopefully grounded some of the loftier expectations for Ramirez’s
output going forward. Shockingly, the
.396/.489/.743/1.232 splits he put up in a Dodgers uniform in 2008 didn’t carry
over into 2009, where he hit a much more realistic .290/.418/.531/.949. The big problem with Ramirez going forward is
that he turns 38 this May. His
batsmanship seems to have come to him preternaturally, but athletes’ bodies do
not tend to keep on plugging away at 38.
11. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea) – Ichiro just turned 36. 2009 marked the first time he played less
than 157 games (146, to be exact). It
also was the first season he didn’t swipe more than 30 bases or score 100-plus
runs. He did, of course, hit .352, which
easily softened the blow in any league incorporating batting average. Furthermore, his .465 SLG was his highest of
his career, so maybe the power everyone has always whispered about will come to
the fore as his speed begins to wane.
Still, one has to worry about the effects of aging when setting their
expectations of Ichiro this coming season.
12. Andre Ethier (LAD) – He struggled with lefties in 2009,
hitting a mere slash line of .194/.283/.345/.629. Owners can take solace in the
fact that his career line against lefties is a more respectable
.252/.317/.382/.700. Given a slight
rebound against lefties and a few more fortuitous bounces of the ball (he had a
career low .292 BABIP), another career year can be expected. He might even be better than he was last
season, when he finished sixth in MVP voting.
13. B.J. Upton (TB) – Having made his debut at 19 in 2004, it
can be hard to wrap one’s head around the fact that Bossman Junior doesn’t turn
26 until August. That being said,
projecting him going forward is a loaded proposition. The emergence of legitimate power in 2007 has
thus far been isolated to just that year.
A torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder is thought to have been
instrumental in his power drought in 2008, but where that power was in 2009 is
another issue entirely. Regardless, his
speed is absolutely real, as his two straight 40+ SB seasons would attest
to. Given his speed and his power, his
.312 BABIP from 2009 was lower than should have been expected. Consider a rebound in BA likely. The other ratios should likely come along
with it.
14. Josh Hamilton (
15.
16. Nick Markakis (Bal) – Is this the year that he finally
breaks out? Is he just a tantalizing
doubles hitter? 2010 should give us the
answer to the latter question. If I were
a betting man, the three straight seasons of 40 or more doubles and 20-ish
dingers will start to turn into seasons of 30 doubles and 25-30 home runs. It seems as though the speed he was thought
to have may be evaporating, but he is just 26, and it feels as though that
power is about to burst out.
17. Jayson Werth (Phi) – Sure, he’s already almost 31 years
old, but he hit 36 homers and stole 20 bases in his second full season in the
Majors. He may only hit .270, but he
draws his fair share of walks and has slugged around .500 for his last two
seasons. Roll the dice on that
production continuing for at least another year.
18. Curtis Granderson (NYY) – In every season from 2004 to 2008,
Granderson’s BABIP sat between .317 and .362.
In 2009, his BABIP was a mere .276.
The unlucky bounce of the ball in 2009 led to a lackluster slash line of
.249/.327/.453/.780. Luckily for
Granderson owners last season, his counting stats remained about the same as
they were in 2008. Expect the ball to
bounce better for Granderson this year in his new digs, and at the very least
another 30/20 season is a distinct possibility.
19. Carlos Quentin (CWS) – Since coming to the South Side in
2008, Quentin’s 162-game averages are 29 2B, 1 3B, 41 HR, 8 SB, 102 R, 111 RBI,
69 BB, 94 K, and a line of .266/.365/.552/.887.
His 2009 was brought down by an absurdly low .223 BABIP that was
partially subject to harm done at the hands of a foot injury but mostly due to
extreme bad luck, so those ratios are unduly skewed by a cursed 2009. If owners could expect to get 162 games from
the owner of perhaps the most irritating batting stance in baseball, then they
would be set. Unfortunately, the
27-year-old Pale Hoser has played 130 and 99 games in the past two
seasons. That isn’t exactly a ringing
endorsement for reliability for 2010. If
he does manage to be healthy, though, he could easily outplay his ranking.
20. Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos) – He could still grow into a little
more power, but what really matters for those thinking about drafting Ellsbury
is the speed. His 162-game average for
stolen bases is 63. He is a career .297
hitter and gets on base at a .350 clip.
Holding at least a share of the
21. Andrew McCutchen (Pit) – McCutchen is only 23. In his first 108 games, he hit a very
sustainable .286/.365/.471/.836 with a BABIP of .331—very much in line with his
minor league performance, his absurd speed, and his respectable power. Projected out to 162 games, his counting
stats would have been 39 2B, 14 3B, 18 HR, 33 SB, 111 R, and 81 RBI. As he grows into his power, 30/30 is very
possible. For this season, 15/35 is very
realistic. Buy, buy, buy.
22. Shin-Soo Choo (Cle) – By some means that must include
sorcery, Choo has sustained a .373 BABIP through 1,275 PA. His 2008-2009 ratios have been
.303/.395/.510/.905. In those 250 games,
his 162-game average was 43 2B, 6 3B, 23 HR, 17 SB, 101 R, and 99 RBI. Some of those doubles could turn into home
runs, as he is still just 27 years old.
He did go 20/20 last season, which could happen again this season, and
he does draw walks, but it is hard to believe the continuation of such a
BABIP. Expect a drop-off in his ratios
across the board, which will likely pervade the rest of his statistical output.
23. Carlos Beltran (NYM) – Missing a month (or potentially
more) and playing in Citi Field (which has seemingly earned its nickname, at
least for the purposes of the fantasy game) certainly sap some of Beltran’s
value. Since he only played in 81 games
last season, it is hard to assign too much value to his 2009 numbers, but hope
for a 20/20 campaign is entirely realistic assuming at least 135 games
played. Couple that with the fact that
the Mets can’t possibly be as injury-bitten as they were last season, and
Beltran could once again be a strong bet for very solid run production.
24. Carlos Lee (Hou) – The 33-year-old slugger saw his ISO dip
below .200 for the first time since 2001.
His OPS dropped to .189. One has
to think this is the beginning of the decline.
He still managed to hit .300 with an OBP of .343, but planning on that
to continue is probably an exercise in utility, and he hasn’t hit more than 30
homers in a season since 2007 (although he did hit 28 in 115 games in
2008).
25. Jay Bruce (Cin) – Well, we can be sure about the power… In all seriousness, his BABIP was a ridiculously
low .222. A serious rebound from the
.223/.303/.470/.773 that then-22-year-old hit can be expected. He’s got the tools and ascended through the
minors in just two-plus years. He will
put things together, and this year is as good a bet as any as far as when that
will happen.
26. Raul Ibanez (Phi) – While he played the second half of the
season with a sports hernia, one has to wonder if that injury was the beginning
of the end. He turns 38 in June. Before the injury, Ibanez was hitting
.312/.371/.656/1.027. After his DL
stint, he came back and hit .232/.323/.448/.771 while hitting only 12 home runs
in those last 72 games. It seems like
every year everyone expects Ibanez’s performance to fall off. Put me in that camp for 2010.
27. Bobby Abreu (LAA) – His ISO plummeted to .142 in 2009—the
lowest ISO he has registered in a full season in the Majors. His BABIP was .345 last season. Sure, BABIP is subject to some swings from
year to year, but does anyone think that a 36-year-old outfielder who is afraid
to run into walls and whose power is waning is going to maintain that .345
BABIP, which significantly outperformed his 2007 and 2008 figures?
28. Brad Hawpe (
29. Hunter Pence (Hou) – A lot has changed for Pence since
2007. His .322/.360/.539/.899 split in
his 108-game rookie campaign was clearly the byproduct of his .378 BABIP. Now that his BABIP has settled in somewhere
around .310, we’re probably seeing the real Hunter Pence. One thing to take a bit of encouragement from
is that he is showing signs of improvement in the plate discipline arena. 2009 saw marked improvements in the areas of
O-Swing%, O-Contact%, and BB% while cutting his K%.
30. Michael Bourn (Hou) – He might be the fastest player in
the game. His Speed Score was the best
in baseball last year. He was second in
all of baseball in both triples and steals.
His BABIP of .367 points toward a bit of luck working in his favor, so
owners probably shouldn’t expect to see .285/.354/.384/.738 again this
year. That doesn’t really matter that much,
though, because he’s being drafted in the hopes of chasing down 60 steals.
31. Carlos Gonzalez (
32. Torii Hunter (LAA) – Since 2004, Torii Hunter has missed
at least 15 games in all but one season.
He is turning 35 in July and was aided by an uncharacteristically high
.335 BABIP last season. Expect
regression.
33. Shane Victorino (Phi) – His home run and stolen base totals
both fell off in 2009. I would hesitate
to stick the fork in the Flyin’ Hawaiian just yet, as he did supplement the
drop in home runs by adding 10 extra-base hits to his total from the year
before, including leading the NL in triples.
34. Chris Coghlan (
35. Nolan Reimold (Bal) – The now-26-year-old Oriole left
fielder had a very solid 104-game rookie season. In his 411 PA, he managed 18 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR,
8 SB, 49 R, and 45 RBI while maintaining a 47/77 BB/K. He walked at an 11.4% clip and only swung
outside the strike zone on 20.5% of his swinging strikes. It would seem as though the plate discipline
is there, and his .320 BABIP doesn’t seem especially anomalous, so his
.279/.365/.466/.831 seems sustainable to say the least. As long as there aren’t any hitches in his
recovery from the partial Achilles tear that he’d been playing through that was
then surgically repaired in September, expect a replication of his slash line
with 20/10 output being easily attainable individual counting stats.
36. Adam Jones (Bal) – The 24-year-old centerfielder certainly has
potential. He reaches outside of the
zone far too often (35.3 O-Swing %). In
fact, he was the 13th worst in baseball in that arena (400 PA
minimum), finding himself kindred spirits with players such as Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young. He did raise
his walk rate all the way to 6.9% last season, so there is a lot to be
encouraged by. That last sentence was
meant to be sarcastic, by the way. He
hit 19 HR and stole 10 bases in 119 games last season. 25 and 15 aren’t out of the question for this
season. Unfortunately, without some improvement in the area of plate
discipline, even his .277/.335/.457/.792 line from last season may be overly
optimistic. One has to hope he figures
things out with more experience, but at the moment, he is an extreme
free-swinger which is worrisome.
37. Alfonso Soriano (ChC) – Now 34 years old, it would appear as
though Alfonso Soriano is firmly in the throes of decline. In the 2008 and 2009, he played in 109 and
117 games, respectively. His production
has dropped in each of the past two seasons.
He was shut down at the end of last season to have arthroscopic knee
surgery, and more injuries can likely be expected down the road. His splits of .241/.303/.423/.726 can be
partially explained by a .280 BABIP, but it really seems as though his body is
beginning to break down. Yes, he is
riding eight straight seasons of at least 20 HR, but this season may well be
the one in which that streak dies.
38. Michael Cuddyer (Min) – Is it realistic to expect Cuddyer to
repeat his ISO leap to .245 in his Age-30 season? Probably not.
His .276 BA and .342 OBP can reasonably be replicated given his .297
BABIP, but expect the power numbers to come back to earth a bit. 20-25 HR is a more likely figure for this
year, which will still play well when trying to plug a third OF or Utility
slot.
39. Rajai Davis (Oak) – The smart GMs (read: Jack Z, Theo Epstein,
and Billy Beane) have determined that their clubs’ money is best spent on
defense. This means Rajai Davis and his
sterling glove will be patrolling the outfield more frequently this
season. As the owner of the third-best
Speed Score in the game, this means that there could be improvement on his 41
SB total from 2009. Now his slash line
was aided in large part by a .366 BABIP last season, so repetition of his
.305/.360/.423/.784 ratios this coming season is probably optimistic. Of course, you’re really drafting him for the
steals, and
40. Nyjer Morgan (WAS) – Whether it is trying to wrap my head
around the fact that he says his “gentleman’s name” is “Tony Plush” or that he
played hockey for the Regina Pats in the Western Hockey League in the 1999-2000
season, Morgan is a weird dude to me. As
far as fantasy baseball is concerned, he is a light-hitting speedster coming
off a 42-steal, 120-game season. If
given a full season of playing time 50 isn’t out of the realm of
possibility. His .360 BABIP is very
similar to Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, and Julio Borbon. Of those four, only Bourn had a worse SLG,
and I’d take his proven track record over the question marks that could arise
when taking Morgan. The power doesn’t
matter that much, though, as with Morgan you will simply be chasing steals and
runs while hopefully helping on the BA front.
41. Nate McLouth (Atl) – Despite only playing in 129 games last
season, McLouth came just one steal short of his second straight 20/20
season. He does a decent job of drawing
walks (68/99 BB/K in 2009), and his BABIP of .284 in 2009 was probably at least
.010 lower than should have been expected.
A quadruple-slash line in the neighborhood of .265/.350/.450/.800 is
likely for 2010. Coupled with 25/20,
McLouth will be totally playable if not quite up to the standards set by his
2008 season.
42. Denard Span (Min) – Optimistically, Span is a 10 HR, 30 SB
guy. Sure, he is probably yet to have
reached his peak, as he turns 26 in February, but there simply isn’t that much
extra base power here (barring some unforeseen insane park factors at work at
Target Field). Given that, it is hard to
project him as being anything more than the prototypical number two hitter, and
not in a two-is-the-new-three way. He
has decent speed, but he has never stolen more than 25 bases in the minors or
Majors.
43. Colby Rasmus (StL) – He turns 24 in August. He struggled a bit in his first year but
still managed 16 homers in 520 PA. His
.251/.307/.407/.714 line leaves a bit to be desired to be sure, but he also
suffered through a season with a .284 BABIP.
With decent power, decent speed, and the assumption that his walk rates
will rise as he grows more comfortable at the plate in the Majors, some improvement
on those ratios at the hand of a better BABIP can be expected. His career minor leagues splits were
.277/.366/.485/.852, which certainly point toward a much better ability to draw
the walk than his 6.9 BB% showed last season.
44. Julio Borbon (
45. Franklin Gutierrez (Sea) – While his
.283/.339/.425/.764 line wasn’t nearly as impressive as his defensive season
for the ages, his 18 HR and 16 SB put him within sniffing distance of 20/20 and
some serious fantasy value. His glove
will mandate playing time. With that
playing time, you could see the soon-to-be 27-year-old take that step into the
20/20 club while sustaining his ratios from 2009. That should put him somewhere around 80 runs
and 80 RBI, which is totally respectable.
46. Juan Pierre (ChW) – In
47. Ryan Ludwick (StL) – I think it might be safe to assume
that Ludwick’s 2008 driven by an obscene .292 ISO and .349 BABIP was a one-time
thing. Even once you factor that in,
Ludwick could easily give you .275/.340/.490/.830 with 25 HR. In the Cardinals lineup, that should be good
for somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 RBI.
There is some very real value to that.
48. Magglio Ordonez (Det) - His aberrant 2007 campaign was
likely the product of a career best .385 BABIP.
Even last season, he was helped out by a .345 BABIP. His numbers across the board in each of the
past two seasons have dropped. Expect
that drop to continue. Is a drop from
nine home runs and a .428 SLG in 131 games anything you want a part of in 2010?
49. J.D. Drew (Bos) – He is a good bet to hit .280 and get on
base at a .390 clip. 20-25 home runs
would not be aberrant. The only concern
is that the historically brittle Drew is now 34 years old. One would have to guess that the end of the
road for Drew is near given his inability to stay healthy.
50. Alex Rios (CWS) – Yes, Rios was awful last year. It doesn’t look like he’ll ever be the 30/30
threat that many were optimistically projecting. He still managed 17 HR and 24 SB in an
otherwise putrid season marked by a .247/.296/.395/.691 slash line. Now I’m not saying he’ll be great again, but
his BABIP of .277 in 2009 was .037 points lower than any other season in his
career. Given that he still has speed
and some power, a sustained drop in BABIP like the one Rios experienced is
simply not likely to present itself again in 2010. Expect a rebound of sorts from Rios.
 Vernon Wells, Blue Jays |
Value Your Veterans
There
are certainly wizened old vets a middling almost-30-year-olds looking for a
fantasy home who could fill a hole or two.
The aforementioned Podsednik and Crisp certainly fit the bill. So do geezers (is it weird that every time I
hear the word ‘geezer’ I think of The Streets?) like Jack Cust, Nick Swisher,
David DeJesus, Milton Bradley, Cody Ross, Corey Hart, Josh Willingham, Johnny Damon,
and Mike Cameron, all of whom could
give you help in the late rounds of the draft in deeper leagues or from the
free agent pool come the regular season.
Avoid Like The Plague
With
as bad as the following players were, you are best off allowing others to take
a chance on them:
 Elijah Dukes, Nationals |
Stealthy Speedsters
While
there is plenty of speed in the Top 50, you may find yourself on the outside
looking in come the late rounds of the draft when it comes to possessing speed
demons. Guys like Willy Taveras, Coco Crisp, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler,
and Scott Podsednik could come in
handy if you are looking at taking a late-round flier. Of those players, it would seem that
Podsednik and Crisp could give the most production given their offensive roles
on their teams while Fowler and Gardner may have the most upside but have
issues related to playing time.
The Watch List
Here
are a few guys who could finally deliver on some of their promise, but may fit
more of a late-round flier or wait-and-see profile:
Prospectin’ For Gold
These
whippersnappers could deliver as soon as Opening Day:
Don’t forget to check out the fantasy
baseball projections that everyone
will be talking about in 2010! Over 700 players projected
and ranked by Mighty Max, the Sports Grumblings
supercomputer!
Josh Duggan welcomes
your comments at mister.josh.duggan@gmail.com. If you are going to heave insults in his
direction, at least be funny and creative.
He is also the author of a
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