Matt Holliday, Rockies

The Top 50

 

1.     Ryan Braun (Mil) – The Hebrew Hammer just turned 26.  Over the course of his first almost three seasons, his 162-game average is .308/.363/.574/.937 with 40 HR, 19 SB, 114 R, and 122 RBI.  Now those numbers are certainly helped out by his monster rookie campaign on a May 25^th call-up, but this is typically where players are entering into their prime, and he hasn’t really missed any time to injury, so maybe those 162-game averages are a pretty good indicator of what we can expect from Braun this season.   

2.     Matt Holliday (StL) – I doubt that anyone thinks Holliday is going to hit a slash line of .353/.419/.604/1.023 in his first full season in St. Louis.  His .313/.394/.515/.909 isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and he certainly took a shine to Busch II.  Having Albert Pujols’s name adjacent to his on the line-up card every day won’t hurt things either. 

3.     Matt Kemp (LAD) – At the ripe old age of 25, Matt Kemp looks to be your best bet for a 30/30 member out from the 2010 crop of outfielders.  As his selectivity at the plate has improved, his numbers have improved.  Coming off a 26 HR, 34 SB, and .297/.352/.490/.842 campaign in which his ISO jumped .025 from the year prior, another step forward on the power front should be expected. 

4.     Justin Upton (Ari) – The younger Upton turned 22 in late August of last year.  In 138 games last season, he collected 30 2B, 7 3B, 26 HR(!), 20 SB, 84 R, and 86 RBI while hitting .300/.366/.532/.899.  His BABIP was .364, which is certainly higher than can be expected going forward, but he put up absurd numbers as a 21-year-old.  He has superstar written all over him, and if we were talking about inaugural keeper league drafts, I’d be recommending a Top Five pick being used on him. 

5.     Grady Sizemore (Cle) – He can’t be that bad, can he?  He had arthroscopic elbow surgery and lower abdominal surgery in the off-season, and those were both reportedly the needed because of injuries sustained in Spring Training.  While it is no safe bet to assume full recovery from injury, Sizemore did hit 33 HR and steal 38 bases in 2008, and he won’t be 28 until August.  30/30 talent (proven not imagined) cannot be overlooked for too long in the draft.

6.     Carl Crawford (TB) – The days of projecting him as a threat join to the 25/75 club (as its only member) are past, but his speed is ever so real.  He is still only 28, so maybe the power jumps up a little bit, but any such development would simply be gravy.  He put his disappointing injury-ridden 2008 campaign behind him last season.  At the All-Star Break, he was on a blistering 82-stolen-base pace.  Let’s cross our fingers and hope for the best. 

7.     Nelson Cruz (Tex) – 2009 saw Nelson Cruz officially shed the Quad-A label.  In 128 games (he did a 15-game stint on the DL in August) last season, he had 21 2B, 1 3B, 33 HR, 20 SB, 75 R, and 76 RBI.  His quadruple-slash line of .260/.332/.524/.856 was probably a little lower than can be expected going forward as his BABIP was a mere .280.  With his speed and power, a significant upswing in the ratios can reasonably be expected. 

8.     Adam Lind (Tor) – While it is entirely possible that I could beat Adam Lind in a foot race, his value is not derived from his speed.  His quadruple-slash line of .305/.370/.562/.932 delivered on the promise he showed in 2008.  His 46 2B, 35 HR, 93 R, and 114 RBI put an exclamation point on that delivery.  Given his impressive .257 ISO, his .326 BABIP was not out of line.  Now, perhaps his .257 ISO will show to be an extreme outlier, but Lind turns 27 in July.  It is reasonable to expect that he grew into his power.  Passing over him in the draft could be costly.

9.     Ben Zobrist (TB) – Having played 59 games in right (37 starts), seven in center (five starts), and nine in left (two starts) in 2009, Zobrist is likely OF-eligible in your league.  While he certainly carries more value at second—or short, depending on your league’s rules, where he played 13 games (six starts)—his value in terms of flexibility cannot be underestimated.  In 2009, he displayed great discipline at the dish.  His BB/K was 0.88.  His O-Swing% was a scant 19.3%.  His BABIP of .330 wasn’t aberrant given his speed, power, and plate discipline.  A repeat of his .297/.405/.543/.948 line and 28 2B, 7 3B, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, and 91 RBI is a plausible outcome for his 2010 campaign.

10.  Manny Ramirez (LAD) – A 50-game suspension and earthly numbers have hopefully grounded some of the loftier expectations for Ramirez’s output going forward.  Shockingly, the .396/.489/.743/1.232 splits he put up in a Dodgers uniform in 2008 didn’t carry over into 2009, where he hit a much more realistic .290/.418/.531/.949.  The big problem with Ramirez going forward is that he turns 38 this May.  His batsmanship seems to have come to him preternaturally, but athletes’ bodies do not tend to keep on plugging away at 38. 

11.  Ichiro Suzuki (Sea) – Ichiro just turned 36.  2009 marked the first time he played less than 157 games (146, to be exact).  It also was the first season he didn’t swipe more than 30 bases or score 100-plus runs.  He did, of course, hit .352, which easily softened the blow in any league incorporating batting average.  Furthermore, his .465 SLG was his highest of his career, so maybe the power everyone has always whispered about will come to the fore as his speed begins to wane.  Still, one has to worry about the effects of aging when setting their expectations of Ichiro this coming season.  

12.  Andre Ethier (LAD) – He struggled with lefties in 2009, hitting a mere slash line of .194/.283/.345/.629. Owners can take solace in the fact that his career line against lefties is a more respectable .252/.317/.382/.700.  Given a slight rebound against lefties and a few more fortuitous bounces of the ball (he had a career low .292 BABIP), another career year can be expected.  He might even be better than he was last season, when he finished sixth in MVP voting.

13.  B.J. Upton (TB) – Having made his debut at 19 in 2004, it can be hard to wrap one’s head around the fact that Bossman Junior doesn’t turn 26 until August.  That being said, projecting him going forward is a loaded proposition.  The emergence of legitimate power in 2007 has thus far been isolated to just that year.  A torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder is thought to have been instrumental in his power drought in 2008, but where that power was in 2009 is another issue entirely.  Regardless, his speed is absolutely real, as his two straight 40+ SB seasons would attest to.  Given his speed and his power, his .312 BABIP from 2009 was lower than should have been expected.  Consider a rebound in BA likely.  The other ratios should likely come along with it. 

14.  Josh Hamilton (Tex) – Obviously, it is going to be hard to know what to expect when drafting Hamilton.  His 2008 season was spectacular, and his power was sapped after the Home Run Derby, bringing his numbers down from the lofty heights they could have reached.  The hope when drafting Hamilton is that he can stay healthy and reproduce his 2008 figures.  Granted his 130 RBI total would be optimistic given the team-dependency of the stat, but one has to hope he can avoid the back issues that plagued him in 2009.

15.  Jason Bay (NYM) – So Bay moves from the hitter friendly confines of Fenway Park to the power killer that is Citi Field?  No Met hit more than 12 home runs last season.  No Met slugged over .500 other than Carlos Delgado, who slugged .521 in 112 plate appearances.  Is there any reason to think that Bay won’t struggle in his new digs?  Think Matt Holliday last season in Oakland, only with a lot less speed.

16.  Nick Markakis (Bal) – Is this the year that he finally breaks out?  Is he just a tantalizing doubles hitter?  2010 should give us the answer to the latter question.  If I were a betting man, the three straight seasons of 40 or more doubles and 20-ish dingers will start to turn into seasons of 30 doubles and 25-30 home runs.  It seems as though the speed he was thought to have may be evaporating, but he is just 26, and it feels as though that power is about to burst out.

17.  Jayson Werth (Phi) – Sure, he’s already almost 31 years old, but he hit 36 homers and stole 20 bases in his second full season in the Majors.  He may only hit .270, but he draws his fair share of walks and has slugged around .500 for his last two seasons.  Roll the dice on that production continuing for at least another year.

18.  Curtis Granderson (NYY) – In every season from 2004 to 2008, Granderson’s BABIP sat between .317 and .362.  In 2009, his BABIP was a mere .276.  The unlucky bounce of the ball in 2009 led to a lackluster slash line of .249/.327/.453/.780.  Luckily for Granderson owners last season, his counting stats remained about the same as they were in 2008.  Expect the ball to bounce better for Granderson this year in his new digs, and at the very least another 30/20 season is a distinct possibility.

19.  Carlos Quentin (CWS) – Since coming to the South Side in 2008, Quentin’s 162-game averages are 29 2B, 1 3B, 41 HR, 8 SB, 102 R, 111 RBI, 69 BB, 94 K, and a line of .266/.365/.552/.887.  His 2009 was brought down by an absurdly low .223 BABIP that was partially subject to harm done at the hands of a foot injury but mostly due to extreme bad luck, so those ratios are unduly skewed by a cursed 2009.  If owners could expect to get 162 games from the owner of perhaps the most irritating batting stance in baseball, then they would be set.  Unfortunately, the 27-year-old Pale Hoser has played 130 and 99 games in the past two seasons.   That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for reliability for 2010.  If he does manage to be healthy, though, he could easily outplay his ranking.

20.  Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos) – He could still grow into a little more power, but what really matters for those thinking about drafting Ellsbury is the speed.  His 162-game average for stolen bases is 63.  He is a career .297 hitter and gets on base at a .350 clip.  Holding at least a share of the AL stolen base crown for the past two seasons should hold enough allure to want to welcome Ellsbury into the fold.

21.  Andrew McCutchen (Pit) – McCutchen is only 23.  In his first 108 games, he hit a very sustainable .286/.365/.471/.836 with a BABIP of .331—very much in line with his minor league performance, his absurd speed, and his respectable power.  Projected out to 162 games, his counting stats would have been 39 2B, 14 3B, 18 HR, 33 SB, 111 R, and 81 RBI.  As he grows into his power, 30/30 is very possible.  For this season, 15/35 is very realistic.  Buy, buy, buy. 

22.  Shin-Soo Choo (Cle) – By some means that must include sorcery, Choo has sustained a .373 BABIP through 1,275 PA.  His 2008-2009 ratios have been .303/.395/.510/.905.  In those 250 games, his 162-game average was 43 2B, 6 3B, 23 HR, 17 SB, 101 R, and 99 RBI.  Some of those doubles could turn into home runs, as he is still just 27 years old.  He did go 20/20 last season, which could happen again this season, and he does draw walks, but it is hard to believe the continuation of such a BABIP.  Expect a drop-off in his ratios across the board, which will likely pervade the rest of his statistical output.

23.  Carlos Beltran (NYM) – Missing a month (or potentially more) and playing in Citi Field (which has seemingly earned its nickname, at least for the purposes of the fantasy game) certainly sap some of Beltran’s value.  Since he only played in 81 games last season, it is hard to assign too much value to his 2009 numbers, but hope for a 20/20 campaign is entirely realistic assuming at least 135 games played.  Couple that with the fact that the Mets can’t possibly be as injury-bitten as they were last season, and Beltran could once again be a strong bet for very solid run production.

24.  Carlos Lee (Hou) – The 33-year-old slugger saw his ISO dip below .200 for the first time since 2001.  His OPS dropped to .189.  One has to think this is the beginning of the decline.  He still managed to hit .300 with an OBP of .343, but planning on that to continue is probably an exercise in utility, and he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers in a season since 2007 (although he did hit 28 in 115 games in 2008). 

25.  Jay Bruce (Cin) – Well, we can be sure about the power…  In all seriousness, his BABIP was a ridiculously low .222.  A serious rebound from the .223/.303/.470/.773 that then-22-year-old hit can be expected.  He’s got the tools and ascended through the minors in just two-plus years.  He will put things together, and this year is as good a bet as any as far as when that will happen.

26.  Raul Ibanez (Phi) – While he played the second half of the season with a sports hernia, one has to wonder if that injury was the beginning of the end.  He turns 38 in June.  Before the injury, Ibanez was hitting .312/.371/.656/1.027.  After his DL stint, he came back and hit .232/.323/.448/.771 while hitting only 12 home runs in those last 72 games.  It seems like every year everyone expects Ibanez’s performance to fall off.  Put me in that camp for 2010.

27.  Bobby Abreu (LAA) – His ISO plummeted to .142 in 2009—the lowest ISO he has registered in a full season in the Majors.  His BABIP was .345 last season.  Sure, BABIP is subject to some swings from year to year, but does anyone think that a 36-year-old outfielder who is afraid to run into walls and whose power is waning is going to maintain that .345 BABIP, which significantly outperformed his 2007 and 2008 figures?

28.  Brad Hawpe (Col) – He doesn’t put up monstrous numbers, but he’s riding four straight seasons of solid fantasy output.  His per season averages have been 25 HR, 74 R, 93 RBI, 2 SB, and a slash line of .288/.384/.518/.902.  He won’t set the world afire, but he won’t kill you either.

29.  Hunter Pence (Hou) – A lot has changed for Pence since 2007.  His .322/.360/.539/.899 split in his 108-game rookie campaign was clearly the byproduct of his .378 BABIP.  Now that his BABIP has settled in somewhere around .310, we’re probably seeing the real Hunter Pence.  One thing to take a bit of encouragement from is that he is showing signs of improvement in the plate discipline arena.  2009 saw marked improvements in the areas of O-Swing%, O-Contact%, and BB% while cutting his K%.

30.  Michael Bourn (Hou) – He might be the fastest player in the game.  His Speed Score was the best in baseball last year.  He was second in all of baseball in both triples and steals.  His BABIP of .367 points toward a bit of luck working in his favor, so owners probably shouldn’t expect to see .285/.354/.384/.738 again this year.  That doesn’t really matter that much, though, because he’s being drafted in the hopes of chasing down 60 steals.

31.  Carlos Gonzalez (Col) – After the All-Star Break, Gonzalez hit .320/.384/.608/.992 with 12 HR and 11 SB.  The 162-game projection based on this stretch would have put him at 27 2B, 14 3B, 32 HR, 29 SB, 110 R, and 63 RBI.  Obviously, there is a bit of cherry picking going on, but even taking into account his early struggles after his June call-up, he still hit .284/.353/.525/.878 while sporting an ISO of .241 and the same Speed Score as Rajai Davis.  Even if he just manages to maintain his 2009 line, his speed and power should reward the enterprising owners who draft him. 

32.  Torii Hunter (LAA) – Since 2004, Torii Hunter has missed at least 15 games in all but one season.  He is turning 35 in July and was aided by an uncharacteristically high .335 BABIP last season.  Expect regression. 

33.  Shane Victorino (Phi) – His home run and stolen base totals both fell off in 2009.  I would hesitate to stick the fork in the Flyin’ Hawaiian just yet, as he did supplement the drop in home runs by adding 10 extra-base hits to his total from the year before, including leading the NL in triples. 

34.  Chris Coghlan (Fla) – It is easy to become enamored with award winners.  Coghlan had a solid year.  His splits were .321/.390/.460/.850.  If you projected his totals from his partial 2009 season to 162 games, he’d have posted 39 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 10 SB, 106 R, and 59 RBI.  As a player who doesn’t turn 25 until June, some of that doubles power could translate into home runs as soon as this year.  Unfortunately, there is a big outlier that affected his numbers last season—his BABIP of .366.  Even the most optimistic projections point to a drop-off this year.  If he isn’t sporting a .322 BA and the power hasn’t arrived, then last year’s NL Rookie of the Year is going to have fairly limited value in 2010.

35.  Nolan Reimold (Bal) – The now-26-year-old Oriole left fielder had a very solid 104-game rookie season.  In his 411 PA, he managed 18 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 8 SB, 49 R, and 45 RBI while maintaining a 47/77 BB/K.  He walked at an 11.4% clip and only swung outside the strike zone on 20.5% of his swinging strikes.  It would seem as though the plate discipline is there, and his .320 BABIP doesn’t seem especially anomalous, so his .279/.365/.466/.831 seems sustainable to say the least.  As long as there aren’t any hitches in his recovery from the partial Achilles tear that he’d been playing through that was then surgically repaired in September, expect a replication of his slash line with 20/10 output being easily attainable individual counting stats.

36.  Adam Jones (Bal) – The 24-year-old centerfielder certainly has potential.  He reaches outside of the zone far too often (35.3 O-Swing %).  In fact, he was the 13^th worst in baseball in that arena (400 PA minimum), finding himself kindred spirits with players such as Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young.  He did raise his walk rate all the way to 6.9% last season, so there is a lot to be encouraged by.  That last sentence was meant to be sarcastic, by the way.  He hit 19 HR and stole 10 bases in 119 games last season.  25 and 15 aren’t out of the question for this season. Unfortunately, without some improvement in the area of plate discipline, even his .277/.335/.457/.792 line from last season may be overly optimistic.  One has to hope he figures things out with more experience, but at the moment, he is an extreme free-swinger which is worrisome.

37.  Alfonso Soriano (ChC) – Now 34 years old, it would appear as though Alfonso Soriano is firmly in the throes of decline.  In the 2008 and 2009, he played in 109 and 117 games, respectively.  His production has dropped in each of the past two seasons.  He was shut down at the end of last season to have arthroscopic knee surgery, and more injuries can likely be expected down the road.  His splits of .241/.303/.423/.726 can be partially explained by a .280 BABIP, but it really seems as though his body is beginning to break down.  Yes, he is riding eight straight seasons of at least 20 HR, but this season may well be the one in which that streak dies.

38.  Michael Cuddyer (Min) – Is it realistic to expect Cuddyer to repeat his ISO leap to .245 in his Age-30 season?  Probably not.  His .276 BA and .342 OBP can reasonably be replicated given his .297 BABIP, but expect the power numbers to come back to earth a bit.  20-25 HR is a more likely figure for this year, which will still play well when trying to plug a third OF or Utility slot. 

39.  Rajai Davis (Oak) – The smart GMs (read: Jack Z, Theo Epstein, and Billy Beane) have determined that their clubs’ money is best spent on defense.  This means Rajai Davis and his sterling glove will be patrolling the outfield more frequently this season.  As the owner of the third-best Speed Score in the game, this means that there could be improvement on his 41 SB total from 2009.  Now his slash line was aided in large part by a .366 BABIP last season, so repetition of his .305/.360/.423/.784 ratios this coming season is probably optimistic.  Of course, you’re really drafting him for the steals, and Oakland is clearly all right with letting him loose on the base paths.

40.  Nyjer Morgan (WAS) – Whether it is trying to wrap my head around the fact that he says his “gentleman’s name” is “Tony Plush” or that he played hockey for the Regina Pats in the Western Hockey League in the 1999-2000 season, Morgan is a weird dude to me.  As far as fantasy baseball is concerned, he is a light-hitting speedster coming off a 42-steal, 120-game season.  If given a full season of playing time 50 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.  His .360 BABIP is very similar to Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn, and Julio Borbon.  Of those four, only Bourn had a worse SLG, and I’d take his proven track record over the question marks that could arise when taking Morgan.  The power doesn’t matter that much, though, as with Morgan you will simply be chasing steals and runs while hopefully helping on the BA front. 

41.  Nate McLouth (Atl) – Despite only playing in 129 games last season, McLouth came just one steal short of his second straight 20/20 season.  He does a decent job of drawing walks (68/99 BB/K in 2009), and his BABIP of .284 in 2009 was probably at least .010 lower than should have been expected.  A quadruple-slash line in the neighborhood of .265/.350/.450/.800 is likely for 2010.  Coupled with 25/20, McLouth will be totally playable if not quite up to the standards set by his 2008 season.

42.  Denard Span (Min) – Optimistically, Span is a 10 HR, 30 SB guy.  Sure, he is probably yet to have reached his peak, as he turns 26 in February, but there simply isn’t that much extra base power here (barring some unforeseen insane park factors at work at Target Field).  Given that, it is hard to project him as being anything more than the prototypical number two hitter, and not in a two-is-the-new-three way.  He has decent speed, but he has never stolen more than 25 bases in the minors or Majors.

43.  Colby Rasmus (StL) – He turns 24 in August.  He struggled a bit in his first year but still managed 16 homers in 520 PA.  His .251/.307/.407/.714 line leaves a bit to be desired to be sure, but he also suffered through a season with a .284 BABIP.  With decent power, decent speed, and the assumption that his walk rates will rise as he grows more comfortable at the plate in the Majors, some improvement on those ratios at the hand of a better BABIP can be expected.  His career minor leagues splits were .277/.366/.485/.852, which certainly point toward a much better ability to draw the walk than his 6.9 BB% showed last season.

44.  Julio Borbon (Tex) – Turning 24 this month, Borbon made his way to the Majors in essentially a season-and-a-half.  Marlon Byrd’s signing with the Cubs opens the door for Borbon to start in center, and Ron Washington has stated that he is likely to lead off.  Between AAA and the bigs, he stole 44 bases last year in 55 attempts.  He managed a .312/.376/.414/.790 line in 179 PA last season; and while he would seem to have been aided by his .360 BABIP, those figures are pretty much in line with what he did in the minors.  2010 may well see Borbon struggle for stretches, but there is enough speed that he should have worth through a few droughts.

45.  Franklin Gutierrez (Sea) – While his .283/.339/.425/.764 line wasn’t nearly as impressive as his defensive season for the ages, his 18 HR and 16 SB put him within sniffing distance of 20/20 and some serious fantasy value.  His glove will mandate playing time.  With that playing time, you could see the soon-to-be 27-year-old take that step into the 20/20 club while sustaining his ratios from 2009.  That should put him somewhere around 80 runs and 80 RBI, which is totally respectable.

46.  Juan Pierre (ChW) – In Pierre’s last full season as a starter, he accumulated 64 steals while hitting .293 and scoring 96 runs.  As the White Sox presumed leadoff hitter in 2010, he could see a return to similar numbers.  If I were to speculate, I’d put the split at about .290/.335/.360/.695 with 45 steals and 80 runs scored.  There are worse ways to spend draft picks in the later rounds.

47.  Ryan Ludwick (StL) – I think it might be safe to assume that Ludwick’s 2008 driven by an obscene .292 ISO and .349 BABIP was a one-time thing.  Even once you factor that in, Ludwick could easily give you .275/.340/.490/.830 with 25 HR.  In the Cardinals lineup, that should be good for somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 RBI.  There is some very real value to that. 

48.  Magglio Ordonez (Det) - His aberrant 2007 campaign was likely the product of a career best .385 BABIP.  Even last season, he was helped out by a .345 BABIP.  His numbers across the board in each of the past two seasons have dropped.  Expect that drop to continue.  Is a drop from nine home runs and a .428 SLG in 131 games anything you want a part of in 2010?

49.  J.D. Drew (Bos) – He is a good bet to hit .280 and get on base at a .390 clip.  20-25 home runs would not be aberrant.  The only concern is that the historically brittle Drew is now 34 years old.  One would have to guess that the end of the road for Drew is near given his inability to stay healthy.

50.  Alex Rios (CWS) – Yes, Rios was awful last year.  It doesn’t look like he’ll ever be the 30/30 threat that many were optimistically projecting.  He still managed 17 HR and 24 SB in an otherwise putrid season marked by a .247/.296/.395/.691 slash line.  Now I’m not saying he’ll be great again, but his BABIP of .277 in 2009 was .037 points lower than any other season in his career.  Given that he still has speed and some power, a sustained drop in BABIP like the one Rios experienced is simply not likely to present itself again in 2010.  Expect a rebound of sorts from Rios.

 

Vernon Wells, Blue Jays

Value Your Veterans

 

There are certainly wizened old vets a middling almost-30-year-olds looking for a fantasy home who could fill a hole or two.  The aforementioned Podsednik and Crisp certainly fit the bill.  So do geezers (is it weird that every time I hear the word ‘geezer’ I think of The Streets?) like Jack Cust, Nick Swisher, David DeJesus, Milton Bradley, Cody Ross, Corey Hart, Josh Willingham, Johnny Damon, and Mike Cameron, all of whom could give you help in the late rounds of the draft in deeper leagues or from the free agent pool come the regular season.

 

 

Avoid Like The Plague

 

With as bad as the following players were, you are best off allowing others to take a chance on them:

• Vernon Wells (Tor) – Every year, there is something he does poorly.  His walk rates are inadequate at this point in his career, and a .711 OPS from a guy without speed simply won’t cut it.  His name recognition will likely get his name called, but let someone make that call.
• Garrett Jones (Pit) – It’s not that I don’t think he can be good.  Unfortunately, some one in your league will likely become enamored with the 21 HR in roughly half a season and project that out to a 40 HR 2010.  There is nothing on his minor league resume that points toward that kind of power being within his capabilities.  If the list were to go to 51, he’d probably be that 51^st, but it doesn’t.  Someone in your league will likely draft him like he is somewhere in the 30s.  Let them take that chance.
• Kosuke Fukudome (ChC) – Don’t even draft him if you are trying to put together an all-Japanese team.
• Jeff Francoeur (Atl) – A little rebound in New York should not alleviate your concerns.  He still has no discipline at the plate, which weighs heavily against any sustained success. 
• Marlon Byrd (ChC) – He is coming off his Age-31 season and just posted an ISO .032 better than his previous best season?  Color me skeptical.
• Jose Guillen (KC) – Too old and slow to be expected to get anything other than a single or a home run, and he’s brutal on the base paths.  Optimistically, 100 games played is the most you would get from him, and maybe 20 of those would be useful.
• Carlos Guillen (Det) – He got old fast.  Don’t fall for the name recognition.  He’s not that player anymore. 
• Gary Matthews, Jr. (NYM) – Don’t assume that because he could actually see playing time in New York that he’ll have some value again.  When Omar Minaya goes out and gets a player, you should take that as a sign to avoid him.  This is no exception.

Elijah Dukes, Nationals

Stealthy Speedsters

 

While there is plenty of speed in the Top 50, you may find yourself on the outside looking in come the late rounds of the draft when it comes to possessing speed demons. Guys like Willy Taveras, Coco Crisp, Brett Gardner, Dexter Fowler, and Scott Podsednik could come in handy if you are looking at taking a late-round flier.  Of those players, it would seem that Podsednik and Crisp could give the most production given their offensive roles on their teams while Fowler and Gardner may have the most upside but have issues related to playing time.

 

The Watch List

 

Here are a few guys who could finally deliver on some of their promise, but may fit more of a late-round flier or wait-and-see profile:

 

• Elijah Dukes (Was) – He’s got tools.  He’s got a good eye at the plate.  Unfortunately, the 25-year-old couldn’t get consistent playing time, and he couldn’t deliver on the promise he showed in 2008.  Once again, his skill-set screams 25/25, but there have been no substantive returns from Dukes as of yet. 
• Lastings Milledge (Pit) – He’s got speed and power.  He just swings too wildly and doesn’t draw enough walks.  His 0.34 BB/K is, simply put, bad.  His stubbornness got the Nationals to trade him.  There is upside here; it’s just that sometimes it can be easy to forget that fact.
• Chris B. Young (Ari) – So that happened…  His 2009 was pretty brutal on the ratio front.  Still, he’s only 26, and he did sport a 32 HR, 27 SB 2007.  If he could only hit .250, you could probably deal with the rest. 
• Delmon Young (Min) – He’s only 24, but it gets harder and harder to hope that he will figure out exactly where the strike zone is.  Maybe he was just allergic to playing in a dome.  With his pedigree, one has to hope that was the case for Young going forward, especially if that means he can take a good path to a fly ball finally.
• Jeremy Hermida (Bos) – You never know how playing time will work out for guys like Hermida when they find themselves in a crowded outfield.  Just like last year and the year before that and the year before that, one has to look at the potential in Hermida.  Given his playing time situation, drafting him would be foolhardy.  Monitor his playing time early on, and act accordingly.
• Travis Snider (Tor) – His free-swinging ways are getting in his way, but he’s still only 22 years old.  He’s got doubles power that will eventually translate into long balls.  Patience will be the key for Snider, and coincidentally for his owners.
• Melky Cabrera (Atl) – He’s always held his own, but perhaps a change of scenery could lead to a true emergence.
• Chase Headley (SD) – He tore through the minors but hasn’t fully delivered at San Diego.  It’s hard to imagine real power developing in the confines of Petco, but his minor league career line of .301/.399/.500/.899 hints at great things.

Prospectin’ For Gold

 

These whippersnappers could deliver as soon as Opening Day:

 

• Kyle Blanks (SD) – This behemoth has light-tower power that was on display in a limited stint the Dads.  Unfortunately, his K% was 37.2, which will need to be rectified for him to have any real value. 
• Desmond Jennings (TB) – He’s got super speed and a BB/K of 0.85 in the minors.  What about his career .305/.391/.457/.848 minor league line is there not to love?
• Jason Heyward (Atl) – If he continues tearing through the minors like he did last season (High-A to drink of water at AAA at the age of 19), he could arrive this year.  He is widely thought to be the best prospect in baseball, and justifiably so.  Thus far, he is the proud owner of a .318/.391/.508/.899 line and a 105/138 BB/K. 
• Michael Taylor (Oak) – The logjam in the OF in Oakland may keep him down in AAA for the whole season.  He only logged 30 games at AAA last season anyway, so some time at the level is to be expected.  He is 24, and it would seem that he should be ready by midseason.  He’s a five-tool prospect who carries a career .312/.383/.515/.898 minor league line with him.
• Austin Jackson (Det) – Taking Granderson’s place in center, Jackson should get the start from the season’s onset.  The 23-year-old centerfielder has decent speed, even if the power isn’t quite there.
• Cameron Maybin (Fla) – His minor league line of .302/.391/.473/.865 is nice, but he struck out in the minors almost twice as often as he walked.  A little more patience would be nice.  He had the speed to steal around 25 bases in most seasons, and he has decent power.
• Fernando Martinez (NYM) – Is this year finally going to be the year?  He has always been very young for the levels he has been playing at, but it hasn’t kept him from hitting .282/.338.446/.785 along the way.
• Matt LaPorta (Cle) – Apparently, he thinks he’ll be ready for Spring Training after arthroscopic hip surgery in October.  Since he played through the injury towards the end of last season, it might be ill-advised to place too much import on his 2009 ML performance.  What you need to know:  .291/.384/.557/.941 hitter in the minors with 56 2B and 51 HR in 224 games.  If he gets the playing time, it could be huge.

 

 

Don’t forget to check out the fantasy baseball projections that everyone will be talking about in 2010! Over 700 players projected and ranked by Mighty Max, the Sports Grumblings supercomputer!

 

 

Josh Duggan welcomes your comments at mister.josh.duggan@gmail.com.  If you are going to heave insults in his direction, at least be funny and creative.  He is also the author of a Kansas City Royals blog, Royalscentricity, a pop culture blog, Inconsiderate Prick, and co-author/co-creator of the seminal Law & Order: SVU blog, Munch My Benson.