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Carlos Beltran and the rest of the New York lineup provide plenty of pop for Mets' fans and fantasy owners.
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2006 Finish: 97-65
(.599), 1st in the NL East
Team Statistic: The Mets
finished third in runs scored in the NL last season in spite of
pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium.
Noteworthy: On
the heels of a revamped offense, the Mets rode their offense to a first place
finish in which they ran away with the division, winning by a magnificent
margin of 12 games.
After coming one win away
from a trip to the World Series, the Mets bolstered their bullpen but neglected
to enhance their fallen starting rotation.
The re-signings of Orlando Hernandez and Tom Glavine proved to be the only
significant moves made to improve the Mets' starting rotation, and Cliff Floyd was replaced by oft-injured
Moises Alou.
Key Additions:
2B Damian Easley, OF Moises Alou, OF Ben Johnson, OF David Newhan, LH Scott
Schoeneweis, RH Jorge Sosa, RH Aaron Sele, RH Chan Ho Park, RH Jason Vargas, RH
Ambiorix Burgos.
Key Losses:
OF Cliff Floyd, OF Chris Woodward, RH Victor Zambrano, RH Heath Bell, RH Henry
Owens, RH Matt Lindstrom, RH Brian Bannister.
Moises Alou was a very good
pick-up if he can manage to stay healthy, which hasn't been easy in recent
years, and the bullpen, which was a sore spot for much of last season is much
improved with the additions of Ambiorix Burgos
and Scott Schoeneweis.With that being said, the Mets declined to
address their starting pitching woes and 40 percent of the starts are above the
age of 40.
If the Mets are to have
anywhere near the success they experienced last season, they're going to have
to hit their way to the playoffs, at least until they have the chance to make a
move around the trading deadline in July.However, if a significant hitter goes down in the Mets lineup, they're
probably done for with their pitching.
Overall Strengths: The Mets had the fourth best OPS in the National League last season.
Overall Weaknesses: While the Mets did finish third in ERA last season, they were eighth in
walks allowed in the NL.
IN THE FIELD
Projected
Lineup
- Jose Reyes, SS
- Paul Lo Duca, C
- Carlos Beltran, CF
- Carlos Delgado, 1B
- David Wright, 3B
- Moises Alou, CF
- Shawn Green, RF
- Jose Valentin, 2B
Catcher
Paul Lo Duca
had somewhat of a renaissance in 2006, posting his highest OPS since 2001 and
contrary to any sort of pattern he had previously shown, actually hit better in
the second half.It would be very unfair
to Lo Duca to expect him to do it again in 2007, however.Seeing as how he put one season together in
between Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran in which he showed
numbers that did not correlate at all with his last four seasons, Lo Duca isn't
exactly a lock to stay at the top of his game at the plate all year.Not to mention that his .318 BA was saturated
by an incredibly high .337 BaBIP.It's
even more amazing when you take into account that Lo Duca has only eclipsed one
BaBIP over .300 since 2004.
First Base
Carlos Delgado
suffered a big drop off in OBA, his lowest since 1997, more than likely due to
a low average since his walk rate hadn't dropped off any.What really makes me believe Delgado is going
to have a great 2007 is his second half totals.His strikeout rate was way down in the second half of 2007, while his
walk rate increased as did his power (34 XBH in just
263 PA), which was likely the cause of an unbelievable August. Nonetheless,
great things are on the way for Delgado in 2007.There isn't a noticeable drop in any of his
statistics aside from batting average, and we all know how consistent batting
average totals are.With his second year
in New York, he may actually be more comfortable to produce
Delgado-type numbers.
Second Base
Jose Valentin
filled a big hole fairly nicely for the Mets in 2006, hitting 45 XBH in just
432 PA and posting his highest OPS since 2001.There isn't any real noticeable change from what he had been doing in
the past other than he started making more contact with pitches and stopped
swinging at the first pitch so often.That will make just about any hitter more successful, though.His power ratio's were right in line with
what he used to do as a member of the White Sox a few years ago, but he did
experience a big drop off in the second half.You can see in the OPS totals month-by-month that he struggled down the
stretch.From May-September his OPS
totals read as .968, .926, .879, .827 and .691.Valentin just strung together a couple of good months and
parlayed that into keeping his job at second
if only because there wasn't anybody else in the Mets organization ready to
take it from him.He's a mediocre second
baseman with a bad walk rate who doesn't possess anywhere near the power he
used to have.The only way he should end
up on your roster is if you have absolutely no alternative.
Third Base
David Wright
is building an incredible statistical resume thus far in his career.The incredible thing in his first two seasons
is how similar they were.All his rate
statistics are within 10 points of each other, and his OPS (.912) remained
exactly the same.His power ended up
dropping off greatly in the second half, with his SLG% dropping over a hundred
points after the All-Star break.He hits
well against everyone, at home or away, and is a player with the potential to
hit .280 in every month, making him great for head-to-head leagues.His walk rate had actually dropped off a
little bit in 2006, but he made up for it by stealing 20 bases.He completed the first of what will be a good
number of 20/20 seasons.
Shortstop
What can you possibly say
about Jose Reyes? He had an unbelievable year when he improved
across the board noticeably in every offensive category.His walk rate almost doubled, while his OPS jumped
150 points and his home run numbers almost tripled.This will without a doubt continue on as
Reyes will just get better and better.He's a definite first round draft pick and
should be the first man chosen after Albert
Pujols in the vast majority of drafts.His 60-plus steals at an 80 percent clip is more than enough to draft
him high in itself.Take advantage and
pick him up, as he's a dynamite star in arguably baseball's best lineup.
OUT IN THE GRASS
Left Field
Moises Alou
has only eclipsed 500 AB once in the last three seasons.When he's been in the lineup though, he's
been incredible.His last three seasons,
albeit often injured, have produced .900+ OPS while producing pretty
good BB/K rates and when a .900 OPS becomes a free agent, you pick him up.He could potentially lead the Mets in OPS,
and even if he only receives 450 AB. I'd rather him be in the lineup than
someone posting a .750 OPS with 600 AB.Alou's a premium talent, even at 40-years-old, he's still got at least
one more top year left in him, and bringing him into a playoff environment will
help him to stay motivated.
Center Field
Carlos Beltran
endured a great year at the age of 29 last season.His walk rate climbed much higher than it
ever had in the past, while his power ratios were way up even compared to his
breakout 2004 season.While I wouldn't
expect Beltran to put up the kind of numbers he did last season, they'll never
dip as low as they had in 2005.The law
of averages will bring his walk rate down a little bit, but he'll continue to
steal bases at an 80 percent clip and post an .800-plus OPS'.The average is bound to increase, so a .280/.350/.500
year isn't out of the realm of possibility and is likely should he stay
healthy.
Right Field
Shawn Green's
OPS totals since 2001 are hardly progressing: .970, .943, .815, .811, .832, .776.
Green's average is likely to approach around .275, but I couldn't see his OPS
going significantly above .800, not to mention him not being able to hit 25
homers anymore.He's an adequate choice
for an outfielder who is likely to stay healthy enough to play everyday.He hasn't failed to reach 580 PA since 1997,
so at least he'll stay healthy for an .800 OPS.