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 Albert Pujols, Cardinals
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To say that the talent pool at first base is deep would be a gross understatement. Four Top Ten picks are likely to come from this pool of players, and another four by the time the first 30 picks have been made. There is not another position in fantasy baseball that can yield as much production as first base.
If you took the average performance of the top 11 performers at first base (Votto, Cabrera, Pujols, Konerko, Huff, Fielder, Dunn, Gonzalez, Butler, Teixeira, and Howard, listed in descending order based on wOBA— weighted on-base average) in 2010, they gave you 155 games, 97 runs, 33 home runs, 103 runs batted in, and four stolen bases. They also averaged a .294 batting average, .390 on-base percentage, and .535 slugging percentage—from here on listed in that order.
That is massive production.
Granted, with the exceptions of the top two, that production is only in four categories—there is a reason these top two players are the top two—but it is far too much production in those categories to ignore. There are nine first basemen who hit 30+ home runs. Five with more than 100 runs scored. Nine who drove in 100 or more runs.
It is likely that when you have completed your fantasy draft the first baseman will be one of the cornerstones to your team.
In keeping with the rest of the positional rankings here at Sports Grumblings, there will also be a key of sorts. For players who are potentially sleepers, busts, or injury risks, there will be an (S), (B), and/or (IR) denoted after their respective teams. Much of the sleeper or bust tagging is based on where they find themselves on the depth chart. Some players’ performances could vary much more than others, and I have tried to address those variances where I saw fit.
The Top 25
1. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals – Give me ten years and counting of rock solid production. He has never missed more than 19 games in a season. His 162-game averages are 123 R, 42 HR, 128 RBI, and 8 SB with a triple-slash of .331/.426/.624. Simply put, absurd. He did just celebrate his 31st birthday, so there is a slight risk that the dip his 2010 numbers took may actually be an indicator of a slight drop in performance, but this is a risk with any player in any season. As a consolation to fantasy owners, he has now stolen 16 and 14 bases in consecutive seasons, which sets him apart from his fellow first basemen. When a player has walked more than he has struck out in nine straight seasons, I’ll bet on him to repeat production.
2. Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds – (B) – If we were basing things solely on this group of players’ 2010 performances, Votto would be atop the list. He had a stellar .324/.424/.600 slash-line with 106 R, 37 HR, 113 RBI, and 16 SB. Looking at those numbers, they are still not as good as an average Albert Pujols season. There is also cause for concern in the form of his BABIP. Votto’s .361 mark was good for fourth-highest in all of baseball, behind Austin Jackson (.396), Josh Hamilton (.390), and Carlos Gonzalez (.384). Maybe Votto can repeat his 2010 performance, but it seems to me that the four players atop the BABIP leaderboard scream regression to the mean. Said regression should affect Votto too much, but drafting him with the expectation of a repeat performance of 2010 is probably a little foolhardy.
3. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers – You could certainly argue a case for Cabrera to be taken over Votto. The primary difference between the two can be summed up in one word: speed. He turns 28 in April and should be fully in the throes of his prime. Since becoming a full-time player in 2004, he has averaged 158 G, 100 R, 34 HR, 117 RBI, and 4 SB while hitting .317/.392/.558. He is first-round talent.
4. Adrian Gonzalez – Boston Red Sox – (B) – I am not one who tends to get too wrapped up in park factors, but if there was one person who needed a change of scenery for fantasy reasons, it was Adrian Gonzalez. In 81 road games last season, he had 46 R, 20 HR, and 59 RBI while hitting .314/.401/.576. His OPS was .156 higher on the road than at home. Moving to a far more potent hitting environment with an All-Star line-up surrounding him can’t do anything but help as he is finally freed from the shackles of Petco. As a lefty whose power is to the opposite field(.871 SLG going the other way), Fenway should treat him well.
5. Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees – Another incredibly slow start screwed Big Tex owners in the early-goings of the 2010 season. While his batting average was dragged down by an uncharacteristic BABIP of .268 (his career mark is .303), his power was non-existent until the calendar rolled over into July. When he turns it on, though, he can carry your team for a couple of months, which is exactly what he did in 2010. In 81 G from July 1 on, he hit .281/.387/.550 with 61 R, 20 HR, and 60 RBI. Since 2005, his average season has consisted of 154 G, 102 R, 35 HR, 118 RBI, 2 SB, and a .290/.384/.541 line. Aside from missing a month in 2007, he has been remarkably durable. Bank on a bounce-back 2011.