Since almost every fantasy baseball league includes saves as one of the statistical categories, some include holds, and many require a set number of relievers in the starting lineup, fantasy owners must understand the very particular profession of the Major League relief pitcher. The reliever never has the option of easing into a game the way a starting pitcher does, as the outcome of the game is always on the line whenever a save opportunity exists.  Any missed pitch location could very well mean another notch in the loss column, or worse still, a fatal blow to a list of stats that depend upon a degree of dominance over a very small number of innings. 

How is an owner supposed to place a value on relief pitchers in a fantasy baseball draft? It seems that the top relievers start getting picked up in the sixth or seventh round in the same general vicinity as the Mat Latoses, or Billy Butlers of the world.  Personally, I would never pick Carlos Marmol or Mariano Rivera ahead of Latos or Butler.  Why?  Because there simply aren’t that many starting pitchers with sub 3.00 ERAs (there were 15 of them last year) and there aren’t that many position players that hit .318 with at least 15 home runs (there were 19 of them).  On a typical ten team 5X5 fantasy team with 25 players, there are enough low ERA pitchers for each team to have 1.5 of them (with three to six roster spots for starters), and enough high average hitters for each team to almost have two (with 12 roster spots set aside for batters).  There were 26 closers who accrued more than 20 saves last year, and I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that Matt Lindstrom and Chris Perez were not high on most people’s 2010 draft lists.  Each team in this made up fantasy league would have access to at least two relatively high value closers, and while there are not very many “elite” closers in the Marmol or Rivera mold, there are plenty Octavio Dotels to go around.  It is entirely possible to have a well-balanced fantasy team and not pick your first relief pitcher until the 20th round of the draft.  One should, by all means, pick an elite closer if the draft position makes sense, but there is no need to panic if the top 10 closers are all off the table.

Key: Those who have a good shot of over performing their draft position I call sleepers and mark with a (S); those I expect to under perform I call busts and mark with a (B); those with persistent injury problems I mark with an (IR).

Finally, the list…

Closers

1. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants:  Wilson has everything you want in a closer: high strikeout rates, good command, bizarre facial hair, and an epic cell phone.  He also happens to pitch behind the best starting rotation in baseball (yes, the Phillies ought to be good, but Tim Lincecum and company ain’t shabby), and in front of one of the best defenses in the game.  The combination of great starters, great relievers, great defense, and just barely enough offense is what won the Giants the World Series last year, what garnered Wilson the most save chances in the league, and what ought to give him a great shot at repeating in 2011.

2. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres:  He is similar to Wilson in most respects (weirdo with great command, and high strikeout rates).  He only allowed one homerun in 2010 (pitching in San Diego has its benefits).  His 1.93 ERA last year was considerably lower than his career 3.16 and it is possible he’ll regress somewhat going forward.  He is second, though, because the Padres are not nearly as good as San Francisco, and he will not see quite as many chances as Wilson.

3. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals:  Soria is the best player on the Royals, and might very well be the best pitcher on this list.  His peripheral numbers are better than Bell’s or Wilson’s.  His xFIP (fielding independent pitching with a normalized home run rate – a stat meant to eliminate chance and defense from a discussion of a pitcher’s performance) was a shockingly low 2.99.  Soria has insanely good command (1.05 WHIP in 2010), and typically great strikeout stuff.  He is, however, playing for a historically bad team in the 2011 Royals, and drops to third as a result.  Even under the worst case scenario, the Royals ought to win 60 or so games, so he will still have his chances.

4. Mariano Rivera. New York Yankees:  Rivera is the surest bet in baseball.  He has saved at least 28 games every season since 1997, and he is almost certain to do that again this year.  He is, however, coming a relatively poor season (he blew 5 out of 38 save chances).  He was also limited to 60.0 innings in 2010, his lowest innings pitched count since his injury shortened 2002 season.  Though he is clearly the best relief pitcher in MLB history, he is also 41 years old and bound to slow down sooner rather than later.

5. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs:  Marmol’s 2010 season was perfectly Nolan Ryan-esque.  He set an all time strikeout per nine inning record (15.99!), but also allowed an epic 6.03 walks per nine (nearly doubling the league average).  Marmol carries a distinct advantage over most relievers in his ability to contribute in a category that is dominated by starters due to their much greater number of innings (in 77.2 innings, Marmol had more strikeouts than Jon Garland had in 200.0!), but his ability to beat himself is a concern.

6.  Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers:  Last year’s Rookie of the Year winner has one of the best fastballs in the game.  If he can learn a changeup to complement his heater and the good curveball he likes to drop in two strike situations, he will probably be moving up to the starting rotation.  If he doesn’t make the move, he will be one of the best relievers in baseball, which is pretty cool too.

7.  Francisco Rodriguez (IR), New York Mets:  K-Rod is solid all around, and definitely ought to see more than the 30 save opportunities he saw in 2010.  His penchant for injuring himself in violent off field outbursts is worrisome.

8.  José Valverde, Detroit Tigers:  Valverde made a big adjustment to his pitching style in 2010.  He used to throw the typical mixture of about 70% fastballs and the rest sliders or splitters.  In 2010, he dropped his slider completely and started throwing his split fingered fastball 52.5% of the time.  This caused a remarkable increase in his groundball rates from 39.7% for his eight year career to 54.7% in 2010.  This change did have the ugly side effect of increasing his walk rate to 4.57 walks per nine. 

9.  Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox:  2010 was Papelbon’s worst season in the majors (3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8 blown saves).  If he can bounce back, he is undervalued at this position.  There is also the strong possibility that the Red Sox will trade him to make way for closer-of-the-future, Daniel Bard.

10.  Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers:  From March through June last year, Broxton looked like the closer who dominated 2009 so thoroughly.  From July through September, he looked like he could barely get out of an inning.  In his defense, he was extremely unlucky last year (opponents had a .366 batting average on balls put in play against him, league average is .293).  I expect him to bounce back, but you never know.