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 Matt Holliday, Cardinals
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If you want to compete in a 5x5 Rotisserie leagues you need some stolen bases. Where to find them? The best base thieves are nearly all outfielders. In 2010, 13 of the top 14 base stealers were outfielders. The most versatile fantasy performers can be found here, with no shortage of power, RBI, runs scored or average. 20 homers and 20 stolen bases are practically the price of admission into the elite ranks of outfielders.
1. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals - Holliday silenced critics last season with a better than expected 28 homeruns. In his first full season at Busch Stadium he put up great numbers across the board – numbers that were in line with what he did as a Colorado Rockie from 2004 to 2008. It certainly helps to have Albert Pujols as lineup protection. Holliday is 31, on the tail end of his prime years. However, there’s no reason not to expect a .300/20HR /100 RBI /100 runs / 10 SB season. And those numbers are conservative projections.
2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers - Braun took a slight step backwards last season in the power department, from 37 in 2008 to 32 in 2009 to 25 in 2010. That’s about the only bad thing you can say about Braun. Well maybe he should walk a bit more – he had only 56 free passes last season. The durable Braun is a five-category monster in Roto leagues and nearly a lock for a .300 average, 100 RBI, 100 runs scored, 20+ HR and double-digit steals. At 27 he is in the prime of his career.
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (IR) - If not for a history of injuries, Hamilton would be the top fantasy outfielder. He only played 133 games in 2010 and still won the MVP with a .359 average. If Hamilton can play 150 games he is a legitimate triple-crown threat. Unfortunately he’s reached that plateau only once in his career.
4. Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox - Crawford signed a $142 million free agent deal to patrol the Green Monster for the next seven years. He doesn’t hit particularly well at Fenway, however. He is a lifetime .275 hitter there with only 4 HR in 320 at bats. So don’t expect Crawford to suddenly surge in the power department. Last year’s 19 HR is going to be tough to reach. Crawford’s value comes from his legs, and he should contribute nicely in the steals department. He has averaged 50 steals a season during his career, though In Boston he might run somewhat less.
5. Carlos Gonzalez , Colorado Rockies - It’s not exactly accurate to say that Gonzalez came out of nowhere last season to post MVP-type numbers. CarGo put up decent numbers in half a season in 2009 with .284, 13 HR and 16 SB in 89 games. In 2010, Gonzalez was the difference maker for a lot of fantasy owners with .336, 34 HR, 117 RBI, 111 runs and 26 steals. Those are top-drawer Roto stats. At Coors Field Gonzalez had a Ruthian .380 average with 26 HR in 74 games. The only downside to Gonzalez is that unlike Braun, Holliday, Hamilton and Crawford, he doesn’t have the history of repeat performances.
6. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland Indians - Choo, 28, is a model of consistency. He has put up back-to-back 20/20 seasons and has hit exactly .300 in each of the past two seasons. Now if only he could get some help from the rest of the Cleveland lineup… Choo belongs at the top of the second tier of fantasy outfielders -- a five-category Rotisserie threat.
7. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates - McCutchen, 24, has 55 steals and 28 HR in 1 ˝ major league seasons. He has fairly good plate discipline for a young hitter – he had 70 walks to 89 strikeouts last year to go with a .289 average.
8. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals (B) - The Nationals raised eyebrows by signing Werth to a generous $126 million seven-year deal. Werth cashed in after a nice three-year run with the Phillies. He is nowhere near the same league as Carl Crawford, but Werth somehow got 89% of the money that Crawford did. Leaving Citizens Bank Park will hurt Werth a little. Being exposed in a weak Nationals lineup will hurt a lot. Expect a measurable decline from Werth in 2011. The Nationals over paid for Werth – don’t do the same.
9. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels - Though getting on in years, Abreu is still stealing bases – 24 in 2010. It was also his ninth 20/20 season of his career. The one red flag was Abreu’s .255 average, his lowest since his rookie season. Don’t worry too much about the age, 37, however. The durable Abreu has played in 150+ games for 13 straight seasons and figures to preserve himself by DHing most of the time.
10. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (B) - Last year’s 54-homerun season was historic. Bautista’s increase of 41 more homers from his 13 HR in 2009 was the best ever. Better than Brady Anderson’s 34 HR jump in 1996 or Davey Johnson’s 38 HR improvement in 1973. Bautista was a consistent 13 to 16 homerun hitter from 2006-2009 so nobody saw this coming. Did he suddenly find himself at age 29? Or was it a massive fluke? I think the latter. Bautista will hit closer to 16 HR than 54 in 2011.