Entering 2010, third base seemed especially deep with noteworthy emerging stars coming off breakout seasons, and a few veteran contributors putting forth solid performances.  Evan Longoria came into his own as a player, Pablo Sandoval looked like a burgeoning batting champion, and Mark Reynolds displayed a power / speed combination rarely seen at the hot corner.  Cagy veterans like Miguel Tejada and Jorge Cantu (neither of whom appear on the 2011 list) gave fantasy owners reason to be optimistic, even if the elite talent happened to pass them by.  That perceived depth was a rare occurrence at third base, a notoriously thin position for fantasy purposes.

While some of last season’s valuable contributors don’t even find themselves on this year’s top 25, some could regain a foothold before season’s end.  Similarly, Major League dugouts are swarming with fresh, young talents that need only an opportunity to showcase their fantasy prowess.  In that way, it’s important to remember that the rankings are a starting point, intended to help begin what is sure to be another exciting fantasy baseball season.  The rankings that follow are intended as a guideline for the 2011 season to come—based on the industry leading SportsGrumblings.com player projections, detailed statistical analysis, unique personal insights, and even a well-intentioned hunch or two. 

Among the afore-mentioned “unique personal insights”, you’ll probably notice among these rankings that “upside” holds a lot of weight, more so perhaps than other rankings you may have seen.  Bear in mind that most of the positional rankings will reflect the biases of the SportsGrumblings.com analysts, and along those lines the 2011 3B rankings are probably not for the risk-averse.  The supposition here is that a given fantasy owner isn’t looking to finish safely in fifth place in their respective league.  Rather, every SG subscriber (and analyst for that matter) is looking to win.  Hopefully, these rankings will be part of that winning strategy.

KEY: Sleeper = (S), Bust = (B), Injury Risk = (IR)

Tier 1 (Crème de la Crème):

1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays.  Longoria appears to be statistically very similar to the next 3B on this list, David Wright.  The main difference is chronological; while Wright is arguably exiting his prime, Longoria is just now reaching what should be his statistical peak.  Even after seeing his home run total dip from 33 (2009) to 22 (2010), there is reason to believe that the best is yet to come, as his 46 doubles from a season ago would attest.    Longoria is also one of the few third basemen to offer double-digit stolen base potential, making him an easy choice at number one.

2. David Wright, New York Mets.  Wright scared the living hell out of fantasy owners in 2009 as he struggled to adjust to his new home ballpark, reaching just 10 home runs and 72 RBIs.  While his 27 steals helped to salvage an otherwise lost season, everyone needed him to rebound in 2010 in order call off the career suicide watch.  Wright did rebound, to the tune of 29 home runs and 103 RBIs.  Phew.  His resurgent production went a long way in instilling confidence among his doubters, but the blight of that 2009 season doesn’t wash away easily.  Once believed to be the reigning king of the hot corner, Wright owners now face lingering doubts.  Still, he remains an elite option, so feel free to draft your Mr. Wright.

Tier 2 (Elite Runner-Ups):

3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees (IR).  Even with the evidence of his decline abundantly clear, this former consensus first round pick still hit 30 home runs and led all 3B-eligible players with 124 RBIs.  The downside is that 2010’s .270 batting average is the worst mark of his storied career.  Could Rodriguez return to 40+ homers?  Sure he could, and for those owners not frightened by risk, he may offer more upside than a player like Zimmerman.  The certitude of 30 home runs is probably a thing of the past, but so long as he’s still A-Rod (and he is), he offers as much potential as any player on this list.

4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals.  Zimmerman may be a safer pick than the three-time MVP the precedes him on this list, and the short-hand answer for why is that Zimmerman is just younger and healthier, with his best years in front of him.  Call it the optimism of youth, but with a player of Zimmerman’s caliber, there are ample reasons to be optimistic.  While both his home runs and RBIs dipped in 2010, the Nationals’ overhauled lineup should provide their third baseman with more opportunities to elevate his production.  This is most likely a player with room for growth, and 2011 may prove to be the true breakout season fantasy owners have long been awaiting.

Tier 3 (Solid Starters):

5. Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (B).  Let’s just get it out of the way and state clearly and definitively that Bautista will not hit another 54 home runs in 2011, okay?  That being said, no one believed he’d continue his 2010 HR binge after his April shower of power.  He defied logic and gravity en route to a career year.  Yet from all we’ve now seen (and we’ve seen plenty), it’s clear that he’s a different hitter after age 30 than he was coming up.  A decline in counting stats is all but a foregone conclusion, but 35-40 home runs is still nothing to sneeze at.  Paired with a potent Blue Jays lineup, Bautista looks ready to reward his converts with yet another season of Bautista bombs!

6. Michael Young, Texas Rangers.  If there’s something to be said about consistency, then there’s clearly something to be said for Michael Young.  At his best, Young has won a batting title (.331 in 20005), and he’s been a hit machine for his entire career, averaging 199 hits per 162 games played.  He’s been a points-league godsend for the better part of a decade, and a boon to owners in all fantasy formats.  While he’s not known as a slugger, per say, he’s topped 20 home runs in each of the last two seasons, and four of the last six.  Young scores runs, drives them in, and even scores the occasional base—although there are fewer SBs these days.  Players on the list may out-produce him, but he finds himself here because he’s resolute in his dependability—more so than any player that follows.

7. Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers (B).  Beltre sure did have a nice run in 2010.  It’s hard to find a blemish on his record, what with a .321 AVG, 28 HR, and 102 RBIs. That’s quite the season for a guy that hit .265 with 8 HR and 44 RBIs just a season before (2009).  The question then has to be asked, which is the real Adrian Beltre?  Most likely, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  While many are hoping that a move to Arlington (a hitter’s haven) will allow Beltre to have an even more productive season, there’s every reason to expect a regression—just check his career averages.  Even with his two best seasons (2004, 2010) included, Beltre’s career averages look quite pedestrian.  For every 162 games played, Beltre has hit .275 with 28 HR and 89 RBIs.  While he’s a good fantasy 3B, but seldom a great one.

8. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates (S).  There’s strong evidence that a player with an extremely high strikeout rate will always have difficulty maintaining a reasonable batting average.  If that’s the case then Pedro Alvarez will never win a batting title.  However, what he lacks in AVG, he more than makes up for in power.  The Pirate 3B hit a combined 32 HR in 2010 (AAA and MLB combined), and scouts firmly believe that may be just the tip of the iceberg.  Possessing almost as much raw power as anyone at the position, the sky’s the limit for this 24 year old.  It’s not guarantee to happen as soon as 2011, but there are multiple 40 HR seasons in store for Alvarez.  At a position where explosiveness is the expectation, Alvarez is unlikely to disappoint—a rare occurrence in Pittsburgh in recent years.