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| The Mets' right-handed prospect has the arsenal to compile high strikeout totals. Pelfrey, the fifth starter in New York this spring, has a chance to put up a solid win total this season pitching in front of an explosive Mets lineup. |
In terms of sample size, no morsel or fragment in relation to season-ending
success is more deceptive than the opening week of baseball.
Those already fretting over the first handful of baseball box scores or
second-guessing their rosters need a cold-water wakeup. The initial production
-- or lack thereof -- from expected stars such as Carlos Zambrano,
Brandon Webb, Scott Kazmir, Jose Contreras, Curt
Schilling, Chris Carpenter, Erik Bedard and even Johan
Santana, who were all dirtied up in their debuts, means little at this stage
of the long season.
Conversely, those managers patting themselves on the back for morphing
late-round flyers into Week 1 --such as the Twins' Luis Castillo (5 for
9, SB) and Oakland's Mark Ellis, who registered five RBIs es on
Wednesday, giving him seven in the first three games -- aren't focusing on the
big picture. Fantasy owners should be managing the back end of their teams, the
weak links so to speak.
Each week, I'll break down the players who are, for a number of reasons, in
line to be liabilities or assets in the fantasy realm. Obviously I'm working off
a small sample size this week, but that doesn't mean there aren't already
baseball sub-plots projecting better or worse days ahead.
After four days injuries and rotation shuffles have offered owners some
pitching options who weren't necessarily front and center on draft day. The one
alarming envelope this year is the number of quality starting pitchers who
opened the season on the disabled list. Be it short term; long term; or for one
reason or another, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Kenny Rogers
and even Pedro Martinez are considered mysteries as to their injury
status or true fantasy worth.
While you build your staff around aces, these teams' fifth starters could
make or break your fantasy season:
For Better
Mark Maroth, Detroit
The Tigers' one-time Opening Day starter is
coming off elbow surgery, but before the ailment ended his 2006 season he was
impressive, with a 3-1 April record and 1.85 ERA. Maroth works half of his games
in a pitcher-friendly venue and could be that one surprise this year. Just don't
expect much in strikeouts.
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
The Mets' right-handed prospect has the
arsenal to compile high strikeout totals. His high-90s fastball is major
league-ready, and he compliments his pitch array with a good curveball and
changeup. Pelfrey finished the spring with an ERA of 2.84 despite allowing four
runs in five innings during his final exhibition start on Sunday. Pelfrey has a
chance to put up a solid win total this season pitching in front of an explosive
Mets lineup.
Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay
Just two years ago Jackson was among the top
prospects in the game. His talent has not yet transferred to the box score, and
his lack of success at the major league level has all but left him as a
free-agent fodder. He is not only worth tracking in AL-only leagues because of
his upside, in my opinion, it's only a matter of confidence before he becomes a
solid option in mixed formats. Will he be on your roster when this
transformation happens?
Brett Tomko, Los Angeles Dodgers
He has already received his 15
minutes of fame, but this mediocre starter pitches in Dodger Stadium. As long as
he can keep the Dodgers offense in games, he will eat innings and offer average
numbers and those all-important wins roto junkies scratch and claw for.
Chris Sampson, Houston
Sampson registered a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in
12 games, which included three starts, with Houston last season. The young
right-hander beat out Astros' prospect Fernando Nieve for the final spot in the
Houston rotation. Sampson will hold this starting spot with the smallest of
success and is an intriguing fantasy option. Track his progress and be ready to
make a FAAB for his services in mid-April.
Honorable Mention:
Sergio Mitre, Florida
He has a starting job in a pitcher-friendly
park.
Fausto Carmona, Cleveland
Loads of talent and is a terrific bench
option in mixed formats. Has the ability to start or close.
