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National League Grumblings -- Week 1
National League Grumblings -- Week 1
By Ray Flowers | Published  04/4/2007 | NL Grumblings
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Adam Dunn hit two homers on the second day of the season

 
Adam Dunn hit two homers on the second day of the season, though he does have 2 Ks in two games. His OPS currently sits at 1.569, and he seems to be a lock for 40 HRs if healthy

ATLANTA BRAVES

Notes: The Braves decided to turn to Kelly Johnson at 2B even though he hadn’t played the position in years. Though he has started the season 0 for 9, the Braves appear willing to stick with him since they really don’t have another option. If he continues to bat leadoff for the team, all he will need to do is to get on base at a decent clip to score 100 runs this season with the thump behind him in the lineup.

Injuries: Mike Hampton’s arm is OK after surgery, but he hurt an oblique that has him on the DL. He threw a simulated inning last weekend and looked strong, but he likely won’t be back in Atlanta until at least May because he needs some work in the minors to get back in shape. Lance Cormier was placed on the DL with right shoulder soreness retroactive to March 31st. They hope to have him back on the 15th.

Player to Watch: The most underrated player on the Braves has to be SS Edgar Renteria. Lost amidst the dizzying display of offense at the top of the SS position, Renteria is a sneaky late round pick up who can provide big offensive numbers. While not a power hitter (despite his 2 HR performance on Opening Day), Renteria is a stable source of offense who has scored 100 runs in each of the past two season. Renteria is also working on a streak of 5-straight seasons of at least 70 RBIs, and he has recorded at least 17 SBs in 9 of the past 10 seasons.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Notes: Everyone wants to push Eric Byrnes aside for the youngsters, but he continues to be the engine that powers the D’Backs car. After being one of only three hitters to hit 25 HRs with 25 SBs last season, he has started this year hitting .500 with 4 RBIs in three games. Jose Valverde is now the unquestioned closer with Jorge Julio shipped to Florida. In his two appearances, Valverde has a save, a loss and a blown save. He sure has filled up the scorecard that’s for sure.

Injuries: Carlos Quentin is out of action with a slight tear in his left labrum
 
Johnson is scheduled to make his first start April 19 at San Diego vs. Jake Peavy
. He has started to hit off a tee, but it appears that he is still couple of weeks away from being healthy enough to give it a go in Arizona. Randy Johnson is still rehabbing from his offseason back surgery but he threw 60 pitches this past Tuesday at AAA. He will make 2 rehab starts before rejoining the rotation on April 19th. Jeff DeVanon had shoulder surgery this offseason, and though he is running, he is still having trouble batting right-handed. He is still a couple of weeks away.

Player to Watch: OF Scot Hairston is only in the lineup at this point because of the injury to Quientin. That said, he should get a fair opportunity to impress the team batting 5th in the lineup after hitting .419 with 7 HRs in spring training. Hairston has hit .248-13-33 in 387 ABs in the majors. He fouled a ball off his knee on Thursday and is listed as day-to-day however.

CHICAGO CUBS

Notes: The Cubs have a potentially dominating offense led by Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Each player has the potential to hit 30 HRs with 100 RBIs. On the hill, Ted Lilly was dominating in his first outing picking up the win with 9 Ks in 7 IP (1 ER).

Injuries: Mark Prior was sent to work on arm strength in the minors. If all goes well, he hopes to return to the rotation by May. Kerry Wood is also on the DL since he just can’t seem to throw three days in a row. He will likely try to return in about 2 weeks to give it a go, but no one knows if he will be able to pitch at that time.

Player to Watch: OF Matt Murton is a name to remember in mixed leagues. Though he will likely share time with Cliff Floyd, Murton could easily excel if simply given the chance. In 599 career ABs, Murton has a .302-20-76-90-7 line. 

CINCINNATI REDS

Notes: Adam Dunn hit two homers on the second day of the season, though he does have 2 Ks in two games. His OPS currently sits at 1.569, and he seems to be a lock for 40 HRs if healthy. Ken Griffey Jr. is back and healthy (for now). He has graciously moved to RF to allow the team to put the more athletic Ryan Freel in CF.

Injuries: This is a long list. Eddie Guardado is out until mid-season after TJ surgery. Chris Denorfia is out for the year after elbow surgery. Elizardo Ramirez is on the DL with shoulder tendinitis. Eric Milton is on the DL with back spasms. Bill Bray, the team’s future closer, is on the DL with a sprained index finger.

Player to Watch: After years out of baseball due to drugs and personal issues, former #1 overall pick OF Josh Hamilton made the team out of camp. With the injuries issues that Freel and Griffey often face, there is a decent chance that Hamilton will have some real value in NL-Only leagues. He still has all the physical tools.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Notes: Todd Helton gets no credit. Sure his power is down, but people forget that he owns a career .333 average. He is 5 for his first 12 (.417) as he looks to regain his perch at the top of the 1B class. Matt Holliday is a horse, and he started this year hitting .400 (6 for 15). Throw in Garrett Atkins, who led all 3B with 121 RBIs last season, and there may not be a better threesome in the NL this side of the Mets. 

Injuries: The team is relatively healthy right now. Brian Lawrence will throw a game at AAA this week, and if he comes out healthy, he will likely make 2-3 more starts before moving back to the bigs. 

Player to Watch: OF/3B/1B Jeff Baker is out of options, and therefore will likely be with the team all year. The problem is, he doesn’t have a spot in the lineup because of a poor glove, but the man can hit. Baker, who has hit .327-7-27 in just 33 games with the Rockies, has the stick to hit .275-25-75 right now if given the ABs.

FLORIDA MARLINS

Notes: The big news here is the acquisition of Jorge Julio who was brought in to be the closer. Though the team has other power arms like Henry Owens and Matt Lidstrom, Julio will be the man. Julio looked good his first outing, but last time out he allowed 3 runs to earn the loss and the blown save. He has heat, but lacks the control to be successful long-term.

Injuries: There are a ton of big names here. Taylor Tankersley, the teams
 
Jeremy Hermida, on the DL with a bruise to his knee, hopes to be back in a couple of weeks, but his shine is starting to dull due to durability issues.
closer before Julio, is close to returning from the DL (shoulder tendinitis). Josh Johnson, 12-7 as a rookie last year, is still likely about 2 months away with his ulnar nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. Jeremy Hermida, on the DL with a bruise to his knee, hopes to be back in a couple of weeks.

Player to Watch: Hermida still owns the 20/20 skills that caused people to fall all over themselves thinking about his potential before last season. In 348 career ABs, he owns a poor line of .256-9-39-46-6 which when combined with his health issues has his value at an all-time low. If you have a DL spot, grab him now if he is floating out there. You won’t be sorry.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Notes: The Astros will go with Chris Burke in CF this season, and he will hit 2nd in the lineup. Burke should be able to push 100 runs scored this season, with around 15-20 SBs. Not bad for a guy who qualifies at 2B and the OF. Mark Loretta was brought in to be a super utility guy in the IF and could have value in NL Only leagues backing up the infielders.

Injuries: Brandon Backe is still trying to come back from TJ surgery, but the big news here is the status of OF Luke Scott’s elbow. Scott, the left-handed platoon hitter in RF (with Jason Lane facing lefties), has a hyper extended elbow that has kept him out of action the past two days. Look for him to be a pinch hitter until the situation resolves itself.

Player to Watch: We could take the easy way out here and say Roger Clemens, but really, the player to watch here is Brad Lidge. Though he had 32 saves and 104 Ks last year, his ERA (5.28) and WHIP (1.40) were career-highs. He has already had a blown save in his lone appearance, and patience might be wearing thin with him in Houston. Dan Wheeler would likely step in to close if Lidge is removed from the role.  

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Notes: Jason Schmidt allowed one run in 5 IP in his debut, though he wasn’t dominating in his performance (5 K, 3 BB). Randy Wolf, healthy again after TJ surgery, gave up 4 runs in 6 IP during his first start against the Brewers. It might take some time, but he could end up being a nice, cheap, play in NL Only leagues.

Injuries: Rafal Furcal injured his ankle in spring training and said he was fine. He’s not fine. Furcal is on the DL, and though he can be activated on Saturday, don’t expect it to happen as he can only jog at this point. Hong-Chih Kuo, out with shoulder problems, hopes to being throwing again next week. He is looking at a return date of mid-May.

Player to Watch: C Russel Martin. As a rookie Martin came out of nowhere to have a big first season (.282-10-65-65-10). The question is, can he repeat that stellar performance? The Dodgers brought in Mike Liberthal to back him up in case he suffers a sophomore slump.





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