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National League Grumblings -- Week 1
National League Grumblings -- Week 1
By Ray Flowers | Published  04/4/2007 | NL Grumblings
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Can Sheets stay healthy long enough to challenge for a Cy
 
Ben Sheets looked great his first outing (CG, 2-hitter), and if he can hurl 200 innings (something he last did in 2004), he would be the favorite for the NL Cy Young

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Notes: The Brewers have high hopes this year. The team moved Bill Hall to CF so that SS J.J. Hardy can man the spot full time. That move could help the offense. On the hill, Ben Sheets looked great his first outing (CG, 2-hitter), and if he can hurl 200 innings (something he last did in 2004), the Brewers could actually make a run at the division title.

Injuries: Corey Koskie still is out with post-concussion syndrome, and his career must be considered to be in serious jeopardy at this point since he hasn’t played since last summer.

Player to Watch: 3B Ryan Braun. Braun can flat out rake, he hit like .400 in spring training, but he also has an annoying habit of throwing the ball to fans in the first row behind first base. Once he straightens out his defense, he could be manning the hot corner by mid-season for the Brew Crew.

NEW YORK METS

Notes: Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran are all top 5 performers at their positions. Carlos Delgado hits 30 HRs with 100 RBIs almost every season, and even 403-year-old Moises Alou can still hit (.301-22-74 last year). As a result, the Mets should have the best offense in the NL, easily.

Injuries: Pedro Martinez is diligently rehabbing his shoulder after surgery,
 
While the team would like to see Pedro back around the All-Star break, fantasy owners shouldn't expect to get more than 6-10 starts from the former Cy Young winner.
and the team is still counting on him returning at some point around the all-star break. Duaner Sanchez was found to have a broken shoulder, an injury that could keep him out up to 4 months. Look for Aaron Heilman to serve as the top setup man as a result.

Player to Watch: SP Oliver Perez. The once dominant hurler (239 Ks, 2.98 ERA in 2004), looks to recapture the magic this year after a solid end to ’06. Perez had an ERA below 3.00 this spring, and hopes that is a sign of things to come. He still possesses dominant stuff if he can locate it.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Notes: The Phils blew two leads to the Braves in their first two games because of terrible pitching by the bullpen. In game 1, Brett Myers allowed only 3 ER’s in 7.2 IP before Ryan Madson and the bullpen lost the game to the Braves in 10 innings. In game 2, Cole Hamels pitched 7 innings with 8 Ks and no runs allowed before Tom Gordon blew a save and Madson lost the game in the 11th inning. If the bullpen doesn’t get straightened out, it won’t matter how good the rotation is.

Injuries: Chris Coste (hamstring) will see some work at Clearwater this week, and hopes to return to the majors in mid-April, if the team has a spot for him. Freddy Garcia (bicep tendinitis) threw on Thursday night at Clearwater (7 Ks, 1 BB in 3.1 IP), and he will make one more start next week. He hopes to be back next weekend for the Phils. Jon Lieber (oblique) threw 42 pitches on Monday and did well. He will likely make at least one start (Friday), before rejoining the Phils.

Player to Watch: OF Shane Victorino might own the best real estate in baseball. Shane bats second in the Phillies lineup after Jimmy Rollins and before Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Victorino, who worked with Davey Lopes on translating his speed into SBs this preseason, hit .287 with 70 runs scored last year in just 415 ABs. 

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Notes: Xavier Nady has started off like gangbusters with 2 HRs in his first three games, a great sign after he hit only 3 HRs in 55 games as a Pirate last year (though he did hit .300). Salomon Torres has likewise started hot on the mound with 3 SVs in his three appearances.

Injuries: John Grabow threw 50 pitches on Thursday in his attempt to come back from a sore elbow. He will likely return to the team’s bullpen in about a week. Freddy Sanchez went 1 for 2 on Thursday at AAA in his continued attempt to return from the DL (knee injury). Sanchez, the leagues leading hitter with a .344 mark last season, could be activated soon, possibly this weekend.

Player to Watch: 2B Jose Castillo was slated to play 3B this year and to split some time with Jose Batista. With the injury to Sanchez however, Castillo has been moved back to his normal position of 2B. What will happen when Sanchez returns? Castillo is 1 for his first 11 at the plate.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Notes: The Padres brought in the younger Giles, Marcus, to bat leadoff and play 2B. His reported demise was a lot less gradual than most realize (he knocked in 60 runs, scored 87 and stole 10 bases last year). Kevin Kouzmanoff, brought over after the team traded Josh Barfield, will be the team’s 3B. He should hit, hopefully he will be able to field as well. 

Injuries: Scott Cassidy (strained knee), is the team’s only player currently on the DL.

Player to Watch: RP Cla Meredith was simply spectacular last season coming out of nowhere to post the best ERA of any NL reliever (1.07). In addition, he held batters to an anemic .170 BAA and posted a 0.71 WHIP. What will he do for an encore?  He and Scott Linebrink form a great bridge to the 9th inning for the Padres.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Notes: The Giants will go as far as Barry Bonds can take them. Bonds, who
 
Bonds took his first trot around the base paths this past week and swears he is as healthy as he's been in three seasons. Fantasy owners who have served on a Grand Jury believe him too.
looked great this spring hitting 7 HRs, is batting .300 with a HR through 3 games. On the hill, all eyes will be on Barry Zito as he tries to prove that his 126 trillion dollar, OK million dollar, deal is worth it.

Injuries: Mike Sweeney is on the DL with a foot injury, but when he is healthy, there may be no place on the roster for him with Ryan Klesko now in town to basically fill the same role.

Player to Watch: What will the Giants do in the pen? After Brian Wilson bombed in spring training, the team had no choice but to turn to Armando Benitez to fill its closers role. Benitez had a strong spring, but his history of injury, combined with his terrible attitude, still has the Giants looking to move him for something of value.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Notes: Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, in case you haven’t heard. Even though he hit .292 last year and had a great post-season, David Eckstein has to prove himself all over again after hitting just .250 in the second half.

Injuries: Jim Edmonds isn’t on the DL, but he is still recovering from surgeries to his foot and shoulder. He isn’t 100% yet. The big news is the elbow injury to Chris Carpenter. No word yet on what it is, but the “swelling” has gone down and he hopes to start on Tuesday, though they may still hold him back to make sure he is healthy. Juan Encarnacion is still on the DL as he has been slow to recover from offseason surgery on his wrist. Jason Isringhausen is on the roster, but just how strong he will be after surgery on his hip is an open question. 

Player to Watch: Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is a starter for now, god knows the Cards need starters, but what happens if Izzy goes down to injury? Will the team stick with its plan and leave Adam in the rotation, or will they shuffle him back to the pen to fill the closers role that he dominated in during the 2006 playoffs? 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Notes: Cristian Guzman is on the DL with a hamstring strain. This necessitates moving Felipe Lopez back to SS (he doesn’t yet qualify at 2B), and placing Ron Belliard into the starting lineup at 2B. Belliard, one of only two 2Bs in all of baseball to have at least 67 RBIs in each of the past three seasons (Jeff Kent), should be able to take the job and run with it if he has a solid couple of weeks.

Injuries: The big blow here is Nick Johnson’s leg injury. Slow to heal, it looks like Johnson won’t return until at least June. The Nats obviously can’t stand to be without their best hitter, but they don’t have a choice. The mercurial Dimitri Young will fill in at 1B until Nick returns. Cristian Guzman is out with injury. The question is; does anyone care?

Player to Watch: The teams leading hitter figures to be Ryan Zimmerman. So why is he here? Without Alfonso Soriano in front of him, and Nick Johnson behind him, how will the 2nd year player fare? Chances or a repeat of his 110 RBI rookie season seem slim, but he does have a legitimate shot at batting .300 on the year.




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