It's unlikey owners will be able to acquire the 'new' Zack Grienke on the cheap, especially if he's impressive in Toronto tonight.

AL Burners and Turners- Work your roster like a portfolio

Fantasy sports are strategic games based on the concepts of equity, acting on future value, and receiving returns.

The stock market works upon the same concepts.  One way to assure that you will have a successful fantasy season is to treat your team less like a roster of players and more like a financial portfolio. 

According to portfolio theory, which is used by many in the financial services world, you can’t simply pick stocks that you feel are going to soon be on the rise, invest your money, and expect to get a solid return on that investment. In theory you actually do an injustice to the market and your hard earned money.

The gut-feeling investor in the fantasy world is the owner that picks up every hot player off the wire and is willing to over pay for a player who is currently producing.  This owner is one of the contributors to mid-season roster drops that create others in the league to scurry to the wire. Just as dangerous is the owner that is willing to package all of their moderate players for higher end options, leaving them with little in the way of depth.

In portfolio theory you need a mix of low and high risk investments and the same applies in the fantasy realm.

Low Risk-High Return  
Low-risk high-return players are the tier-one studs. They typically represent the first six-rounds of selections on draft day. By bartering this group you rarely get dollar-for-dollar in return. These are the players that will produce over the long haul, and even in injury almost always hold some value.

Low Risk- Medium Return
The mid-round (Rounds 7-13) typically comprise the low-risk medium-return container. These players will typically reward owners with average production (15 HR and 75 RBI).  Seek out this group when looking for upside or historical splits that offer in-season value. During any given week a player from the mid-round group can move from low-risk medium-return -- to a high-return candidate with a simple depth chart or lineup upgrade. 

High Risk- Low Return
The final players (draft selections 14-23) inside your roster portfolio are arguably the most important. This group contains the high-risk low-return players. You must at some point separate any personal biases from the actual forecast of these players.

Too often in fantasy sports we become attached to specific players, for a number of reasons, and it typically clouds good judgment.

Your bench jockeys or late round selections must be specifically targeted to roster need, and one must be ready to move these players depending on performance   From this group, you will move players that become productive into the low-risk medium-return slot and drop unproductive choices into the free agent pool.  This group of personalities don’t offer much trade value nor do they typcialy garner wide spread interest from the league as a whole.

For a roster to have optimum value, and league success, one should have an equal number of players from each of the three groups discussed.    

Burners are players tearing up the stat line and player rankings They are on the cusp of becoming more than they were on draft day. These players represent value-over-cost and should be approached as waiver pickups or trade targets.

Turners are the opposite. They represent cost-over-value.  They must be turned over in order to salvage roster value and in many cases an owners’ competitive edge.

This week in the American League we look at pitchers who could make a difference moving forward.

Burners- A young starter and experienced reliever

Zack Greinke- The Royals young right-hander opened the season by throwing seven innings on April 5th against the Red Sox.  Greinke offered the Red Sox one earned run while recording seven strikeouts in the no-decision.  Greinke’s next start is Tuesday against Toronto, and the time to grab him or make trade offers is now. He is still available in shallow mixed formats and should be a trade target moving forward. A solid outing against the Blue Jays tonight will  turn change his status into a Turner.

Al Reyes- Tampa manager Joe Maddon has emphasized that Reyes will not be his permanent closer.  It’s likely though that the 37-year-old will get his fair share of save opportunities this season.  Reyes, who missed the 2006 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery made 65 appearances in 2005 striking out 67 batters and registering an ERA of 2.15. Mixed league owners looking for cheap saves should target Reyes. He offers value-over-cost.

Turner- A high priced arm offering low end production

Gil Meche - The right hander signed a five year $55 million contract to join the Royals in December.  In his first start of the season -- versus the Red Sox -- he was impressive.  He covered 7.1 innings of work giving up six hits and one earned run.  In his next outing versus Detroit he force-fed the Tigers lineup which result in six earned runs including three home runs. Meche will face the Orioles in his next start and if he can repeat his opening day numbers he’s a prime candidate to offer in trade.