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Opportunity Breeds Optimism -- Week 3
Opportunity Breeds Optimism -- Week 3
By Seth Trachtman | Published  04/10/2007 | Opportunity Breeds Optimism
Seth Trachtman

SG associate editor Seth Trachtman is a seven-year veteran of the fantasy sports writing industry. His work has appeared at countless websites and publications including Fox Sports and Sporting News. He has a first and second place finish the last four years in one of the industry's most recognized expert leagues, Mixed Nuts, and is currently the acting commissioner.

 

View all articles by Seth Trachtman
Opportunity Breeds Optimism

 
 Ron Belliard can help NL-only owners as Washington's starting second baseman.

Common logic states that there are more opportunities for young players on bad teams.The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are a prime example.

The average age of the Devil Rays' roster is under 27, and they have several first-time starters in their lineup this season including B.J. Upton and Delmon Young. Their bench is mostly young players, while their pitching staff is a mix of youngsters and retreads.

It's those retreads in the starting rotation that could provide an opportunity for the team's pitching prospects. No pitching prospect in the organization has a higher ceiling than Jeff Niemann. The fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft out of Rice was one of the most accomplished college pitchers of the last decade, but he has had trouble staying healthy in his pro career.Niemann finally stayed healthy for a stretch last season and posted a 2.68 ERA and over a strikeout per inning at Double-A Montgomery in 77.1 innings. This season he is starting out at Triple-A Durham, and his major league debut may not be too far away.

Scott Kazmir and James Shields are strongholds in the Tampa Bay rotation, but after those two promising youngsters it gets shaky. Veteran Casey Fossum is still yet to fulfill the promise that he showed as a Red Sox prospect, and his first turn in the rotation could not have been any uglier.Jae Seo has not fared all that well since joining the American League last season with an ERA above 5.00. Young Edwin Jackson rounds out the rotation as a promising arm, but it still remains to be seen whether he is actually ready for the majors.

Niemann has had various arm and leg injuries over the last few years, but when on the mound he shows an absolute cannon for an arm, fairly wide pitch repertoire and at least average control. Listed at 6-9 and 260 pounds out of college, Niemann is one big, intimidating hombre.Tampa Bay can certainly afford to be patient with Niemann, but a strong start at Triple-A could get him a call-up sooner than most expect. At that point Niemann has the stuff to become Tampa Bay's second young ace. Of course, all of this could become a moot point if the delicate Niemann succumbs to another injury. Still, he is worth stashing on deep AL-only reserve rosters for the possibility that he will be pitching in the majors within the next two months.

HITTERS

Ron Belliard, 2B, Washington: We could review a long summary of what Belliard is capable of providing as a starter, but that would be a waste of time considering how consistent Belliard has been over the last three seasons.  As a hiitter he's practically guaranteed to register a .270 average including a dozen homers with solid stats across the board. The Nationals were attempted to get something out of the ridiculous Cristian Guzman contract this season before he went down with yet another injury last week. The injury to Guzman has resulted in the team using Belliard at second base while Felipe Lopez moves to shortstop. Belliard is clearly more productive than Guzman (.297 career OBP) offensively, and he's hardly a downgrade defensively. The Nationals will have very little incentive to return Lopez back to second base, demote Belliard again, and plug-in Guzman when he's able to return from injury. This all means that Belliard is likely to see at least 450 at-bats and produce for NL-only owners this season.

Melky Cabrera, OF, N.Y. Yankees: Cabrera was busy last season as a
 
With Matsui on the shelf Cabrera can contribute  -- even in deep NL-onlys
result of injuries to Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield. Matsui was placed on the disabled list again with a hamstring injury, leaving Cabrera as the Yanks' starting left fielder. What was perhaps most impressive about Cabrera's 2006 season was not his seven homers, 12 steals or .280 average. The youngster posted a 56/59 BB/K ratio in 460 at-bats, a strong indicator that he's patient in his youth and has an understanding of the strike zone. This from a  22 year-old .294 career minor league hitter that never showed plate discipline until last season. His surrounding tools are better than average now, but Cabrera is showing signs that he can hit be a good player at the major league level.  AL-only owners would be crazy not to take advantage of his at-bats while Matsui is mending.

Jason Tyner, OF, Minnesota: The veteran speedster has an opportunity for regular at-bats now that the injury-prone Rondell White has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. Tyner was solid off the bench last season, mostly filling in for White and the deported Jason Kubel. History tells us that the .312 that Tyner hit last season is no fluke, and combined with his success on the base paths (242 career steals) he will contribute in AL-only leagues.

Honorable Mention:

Josh Rabe, OF, Minnesota: Like Jason Tyner, Rabe stands to gain some at-bats with Rondell White out. Rabe didn't get his first taste of the majors until last season at age 27, but he has shown double-digit pop and steals as a minor leaguer. Owners in deep AL-only leagues could definitely do worse than Rabe over the next week or two.

Paul Bako, C, Baltimore: Bako is getting the majority of the PT as Baltimore's catcher while Ramon Hernandez resides on the disable list. Bako, a .236 career hitter with little power has little to offer fantasy owners even in AL-only formats but in leagues that require two backstops Bako will at least offer some at-bats over the next 7-10 days.






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