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For Better, For Worse -- April 19, 2007
For Better, For Worse -- April 19, 2007
By Tony Finn | Published  04/19/2007 | For Better-- For Worse - (2007)
Tony Finn

Managing Editor and Director of Operations for Sports Grumblings LLC, is nationally published covering the National Football League, Major League Baseball, College Football and has been a FSWA Writer of the Year finalist.  Involved with Fantasy Sports since 1973, Tony has hosted radio and internet broadcasts that include the 'Dog and Tony Show' with NFL draft analyst D.J Boyer, 'Football Central', 'Finn on Sports', 'Gridiron Gamblers', and is the Senior NFL analyst for the PBS broadcast of "NFL Intellect".  Tony's columns include 'The Finn Factor', 'Six Days to Sunday' and 'Sunday No Huddle' which are featured exclusively at Sports Grumblings and 'For Better, For Worse' a weekly feature for SportsIllustrated. 

 

View all articles by Tony Finn
In-season work can trump draft day mistakes
 
Padres' ace Jake Peavy was SG's choice this March to challenge Twins left-hander Johan Santana as the best Fantasy pitcher this season.  So far so good for the San Diego right-hander.

The spring that began with prospects ducking a trip to the farm and sticking with the parent club hasn't been all it was cracked up to be -- not for some. Just two weeks into the season, fantasy owners have already begun giving up on the young and are chasing the unlikely.

Countless rookies are struggling in the early going and while the experienced major league manager knew this might be the case for their young when the real games began in April, a fantasy owner tends to be less understanding and/or patient then big-league management.

Kevin Kouzmanoff's plate discipline has deserted him, Alex Gordon can't handle the small-market pressure of being a top prospect and Troy Tulowitzki isn't hitting his weight and has but 11 total bases in 47 at-bats.

The usual suspects have either been very good or very bad in April. Players such as Alex Rodriguez, Jake Peavy, Felix Hernandez and Jimmy Rollins have started fast, while Manny Ramirez, Brett Myers, Albert Pujols and Alfonso Soriano haven't yet warmed to the unusually cool and wet spring.

Injuries too have riddled fantasy rosters and starting rotations. Jason Schmidt, Troy Glaus, B.J. Ryan, Hideki Matsui, Jason Jennings and Soriano have either missed time or gone on the disabled list. Rich Harden is once again experiencing shoulder soreness and nobody can put their finger on why new Rangers manager Ron Washington made Sammy Sosa part of the 25-man roster, yet alone use him in the starting lineup.

We must remember that for the most part, hot streaks, slumps and injuries will all even out and players will both settle up and settle down. The weather will get warmer. Pujols, Soriano, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira eventually will hit, while Myers, Carlos Zambrano, Ben Sheets and most of the proven arms will find their zone.

As we transition into another week of fantasy play, For Better, For Worst casts a watchful eye on the waiver wire.

(Stats through Wednesday)

For Better

1. Jason Frasor, RP, Toronto: It's likely too late to get Frasor unless league
 
There is no guarantee Ryan will pitch again this season
owners fell asleep when B.J. Ryan injured his throwing elbow last weekend. Ryan will miss 4-6 weeks and be replaced by Frasor, who earned his first save on Tuesday. Unfortunately for Brandon League, his own injury prevented him for filling in for Ryan. Don't rule out setup man Shaun Marcum vulturing a save or two over the next two months.

2. Adam Lind, OF, Toronto: Reed Johnson is out indefinitely with a herniated disc in his back, offering super prospect Lind another chance in the bigs. Lind is a power prospect who can hit for average. AL-only owners shouldn't think twice; mixed format managers will be whispering his name soon.

3. Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto: Don't look now but the 25-year-old is breaking out. Hill opened the season on fire and has a .353 batting average, eight extra-base hits, 10 runs scored and 11 RBIs. He's still a no-name in traditional formats but has easily outperformed most of his peers.

4. Bartolo Colon, SP, L.A. Angels: While Colon might not be available outside of shallow mixed formats, his rehab numbers have been outstanding. Colon pitched well in his final tune-up and is headed to the Angels rotation late this week. He was routinely clocked in the upper-90s in his past two starts and if healthy he could be a coup as a waiver-wire pickup. If he does anything to contribute moving forward, his late-round average draft position in mixed formats will have been a steal.

5. Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City: The Royals developed a fancy for the Padres prospect and tapped his shoulder in the Rule 5 draft this offseason, so he'll be in the bullpen all year. With David Riske ineffective and Octavio Dotel on the disabled list, Soria is now Buddy Bell's top closing option. The 23-year-old had thrown five scoreless innings until Monday when he was roughed up in a non-save situation, but saves are saves and despite the Royals' propensity to lose 100 games per season he will get his chances.

Honorable Mention:
Taylor Tankersley
, RP, Florida: Activated from the DL last Friday after suffering through shoulder tendonitis, he is expected to jump right back into the closer mix. Don't be surprised if he has a save before this time next week.

Luis Gonzalez, OF L.A. Dodgers: Gonzo has a bounce in his step and is hitting at the .300 mark. Chase him while it lasts.

Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore: Mora has three home runs and 12 RBIs so far this season and is available in a large number of mixed formats.


For Worse

1. Oakland A's pitchers: Don't get too excited about the back end of the A's rotation. Joe Kennedy and Brad Halsey will fill in should Harden land on the disabled list. Kennedy has no shot of contributing in mixed formats and the anemic offense of the A's won't offer the mediocre arms much in the way of run support.

2. Scott Hairston, OF, Arizona: Carlos Quentin is back from injury and Hairston has returned to the bench. The latest reports out of Arizona have Hairston continuing to share time with the Diamondbacks' young starting outfielders. Don't believe it -- Hairston should either be ignored or returned to the free-agent pool.

3. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Atlanta: After a solid start this spring, Johnson is now hovering as a mixed-league throw-away. Johnson has been productive  as a run scorer but had yet to have a multi-hit game until Wednesday. NL-only owners will hold tight but his pre-season worth was over-hyped.

4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston: It's time to face facts -- just because you hit in the Red Sox lineup doesn't automatically make you a fantasy option. This is the case for Pedroia, who has looked bad more than once this year against average major league fastballs. His .188 average, no RBIs and zero stolen bases make him dead weight even in AL-only formats.

5. Rick Vanden Hurk, SP, Florida: The 22-year-old Dutch-leaguer and Tommy John surgery survivor had never pitched above Class A until last week. Don't make the mistake of thinking he and his soon to be 5.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP will help.

Honorable Mention:
Randy Keisler
, SP, St. Louis: The left-handed journeyman is still fighting to stay in the big leagues, and at 31, he'll attempt to fill the shoes of Chris Carpenter. His last 15 minutes came in 2000 when he replaced David Cone on the Yankees roster. He didn't help fantasy owners in 2000, and he won't in 2007.

Jorge Julio, RP, Florida: Continues to wear out his welcome with each new uniform he dons by blowing ninth-inning chances. Despite his salary, the Fish won't look back, although he landed on the disabled list Wednesday with a calf injury.



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