Some players step it up in the contract year. Some cannot handle the pressure. Guess which side Carlos Zambrano is falling on thus far? Hint: not the good one.

Welcome to my first installment of the Look Ahead for the 2007 season. Yeah, I know we just finished up three weeks here – I’m a slacker. I blame society.

For those that have never seen this feature before, here is what we do here. Everything you need to know for the upcoming week – two-start starters, hitters with the most games, hitters with the fewest games, and the games you just need to watch this week. Sound like fun? I thought so.

Series of the Week – Monday Through Wednesday

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs

You cannot stop J.J., you can only hope to contain him...

After the big offseason that the Cubbies had, it was the trendy thing to ask, “Is this the Cubs’ year finally?” That was not the right question, though; the correct one is, “Did the Cubbies do enough to keep up with the Brewers?” With the best young team in the game today, the Brewers are 10-7 as of this writing and in first place in the National League Central. This lineup has the Brewers fourth right now in the NL in runs scored with 86, and they are second in the NL, trailing only the Braves, with 20 homers. They are not all about the long ball either, as their 11 stolen bases are fourth best in the league. The big offensive leader of late for the Brewers has been shortstop J.J. Hardy. A promising prospect while still in the minors, Hardy struggled last year thanks to injuries, but those that bid on his potential not his 2006 results have been pleasantly pleased with the results thus far, and he is now hitting .290 with five homers, 12 RBI, and 11 runs after completely going off on the Astros and Pirates the last three days – in those three games, Hardy has four homers, eight RBI, five runs, and seven hits.

The pitching has been a struggle for the Brewers, as their team ERA of 4.32 is better than only five other teams, and their bullpen has a big part of that with a league-worst reliever ERA of 4.81. The pitching, especially the pen, should improve as the season goes on, and a good deal of that will be due to pitching coach Mike Maddux, easily the best pitching coach in the game today. He is already showing success with new Brewer Claudio Vargas, who is 1-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his two starts, and he has struck out 20 while walking just two in 11 innings. Yes, that’s pretty impressive. Vargas is slated to make two starts this week, the first coming on Monday to open this series.

His opposition in that game is why people should not bid in fantasy leagues based on contract status. Sometimes, players really do step up in contract years, but, just as often, there are players that cannot stand the pressure of playing with a contract on the line and stumble. The latter appears to be the case for Carlos Zambrano, who is 1-2 with a 7.77 ERA through four starts, and he has walked as many as he has struck out thus far, with 16 each through 22 innings. Opponents right now are hitting .291 against Zambrano, over 80 points higher than they did last year against him. Even if the Cubs were negotiating in-season with Zambrano, they have most certainly broken off talks by now and have to be waiting to see how this plays out.

Offensively, the Cubs are not in the same ballpark as the Brewers, with 12 fewer runs, seven fewer homers, and a slugging percentage more than 60 points behind that of the Brewers. Derrek Lee might be back as far as the batting average is concerned – he is hitting .359 heading into Sunday – but he has yet to homer. Alfonso Soriano, he of the $793 billion offseason contract, has yet to homer as well, and he is hitting just .245. Soriano should be back on Monday or Tuesday, and that is going to force the Cubs to figure out who stays and who goes in the second base/outfield rotation that they have now involving Felix Pie (pronounced Pee-A, by the way, not like a slice of…), Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Theriot. Through 16 games, Theriot has 14 hits in 43 at-bats, good for a .326 batting average, with four RBI, seven runs, and five stolen bases in six attempts. With seven games at second base, three at third, and five in the outfield, and has performed regardless of where they put him – he’s like the Cubs version of Ryan Freel, or what Ryan Freel should be if the Reds hadn’t stupidly settled on just position for Freel.

Series of the Week – Weekend Edition

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

David Ortiz really, really likes bombing the Bombers

Can’t stand the hype this weekend? Tough – you’re about to get another whole round of it as this series switches from the beautiful Fens to the run-down, dilapidated Bronx. Me partisan? Of course not! The Sox have taken two out of three thus far from the Yankees this weekend, doing so with what is supposed to be the Yankees’ strength – offense. David Ortiz has come through big time of late after a slow start, and he is hitting .300 with six home runs, 17 RBI, and 13 runs heading into tonight’s game. J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo are both showing that they can adjust well to life in New England so far. Drew is hitting .346 with a homer and seven RBI while Lugo is hitting .276 with five RBI and three stolen bases, allaying, at least somewhat, fears that he would stop running upon arrival in Boston. As a team, the Sox are fourth in the AL in runs scored with 82, but they are near the bottom of the pack in regards to homers with just 14 home runs, with only three teams in the AL hitting fewer. Of course, they are in first place, as are Minnesota (nine) and Oakland (nine), so home runs aren’t everything, no matter how much chicks dig the long ball.

The Yankees are certainly mashing right now, with an insane 102 runs right now, well ahead of second-place Tampa Bay (yeah, you read that right – Tampa Bay). Their 22 home runs are tied with those same Devil Rays for first in that category. Where the Yankees are struggling though is in the pitching department, as their starters’ ERA right now collectively is 4.93, tenth in the American League. Only two teams have gotten fewer innings this year from their starters than the Yankees, and that would be the Mariners and Indians who have played fewer games thanks to snow-outs. Only the Rangers have a weaker strikeout-per-nine ratio than the Yankees’ starters have, 4.48. This rotation has serious issues, and facing the Red Sox tonight and then three more times next weekend is not going to help their numbers improve anytime soon.