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A Look Ahead - May 6, 2007
A Look Ahead - May 6, 2007
By Mark Allen Haverty | Published  05/6/2007 | A Look Ahead - (2007)
Mark Allen Haverty
Senior Editor Mark Haverty's work has regularly appears in such places as FOX Sports and Sporting News, where Mark is one of TSN's lead minor league analysts. Mark has also been featured in multiple print publications and as a featured guest on multiple radio shows.  

View all articles by Mark Allen Haverty
The Games of the Week
 
Jose Contreras is one-half of the maruee matchup of one of this week's series to watch.

Welcome back to another Look Ahead as we enter into the sixth week of the season. No fancy intro this week – let’s just dive right in to the series of week…

Series of the Week – Tuesday through Thursday
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

We knew entering the season that the American League Central was going to be a tough division, likely the toughest. We also knew that the Indians were better than they looked last year, but there was no guarantee that they were ready to break out this year. Well, they have, and the Tigers have also shown that they are for real, and this is leaving the White Sox and the Twins back in the pack. With the toughness of this division, every series within the division is must-win, especially when the two teams involved are both below .500 as of this writing on Sunday morning.

Of the three games, the best pitching matchup is the one on Thursday afternoon, where Jose Contreras takes the mound for the White Sox against Carlos Silva. Silva has been solid so far this year, with a record of 2-2 and a 2.75 ERA. Silva’s success has always been in his ability to prevent free bases, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio throughout his career has routinely been over 2:1, with one pushing 8.0 in his breakout 2005 season. Silva has always been hittable, though, and opponents hit .290 against him that year, and .324 last year when he came crashing back to earth. This year, he is right back to that .290. He has seen a rise in his strikeout per nine rate, with a career-best five per nine innings, but his walk rate has also risen, as his 2.25 is the highest per nine innings that he has posted since joining the Twins. Silva is coming off of a very strong start against the Red Sox, where in seven innings he held the Sox to five hits, two walks, and one earned run, which came from a solo home run, but he only struck out one in the outing. While the Red Sox might not have been able to benefit from that lack of dominance, the White Sox might if Silva is not careful.

For Contreras, he is coming off of a rough April that saw him make just two quality starts out of five, but he has made two straight quality starts, both six inning performances against the Angels, although only one was a win. Contreras’ big problem has been control, as he had more walks than strikeouts in his five April starts – 13 walks, 11 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings – but he looked solid in his last outing at least in terms of control, as he struck out six while walking three in six innings.

For the hitters to watch, the one to watch in the Pale Hose is Paul Konerko, who is struggling to maintain a batting average over the Mendoza Line. Konerko finished the month of April hitting just .198, and he has seen his average skyrocket all the way to .204 after hitting 4-for-17 in his four games in May. Konerko also has just four homers on the season, two of which came in the same game, on April 23rd against the Royals. Konerko has to turn things around at some point, right? Well, for the White Sox to win this series, with Jim Thome on the disabled list, Konerko will need to hit.

On the Twins, the hitter to watch is Luis Castillo. Castillo has been silenced in the first two games with the Red Sox, going 0-for-8, but he had been riding a six-game hitting streak where he was 11-for-27. The question though is whether Castillo will ever run again like he used to. Castillo has just two stolen bases on the year, his last one coming way back on April 11th. Castillo stole 25 bases last year after stealing just 10 in 2005, his fewest stolen bases in a season, and Castillo has not been a major stolen base threat since 2002. Without the stolen bases, Castillo is a rather generic second baseman at best.

Series of the Week – Weekend Edition
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

It’s the two best teams in the National League facing off with each other, so they have to take the spotlight this week. The Brewers have roughed up their own division, now it is time for them to show the rest of the league that they are for real. As for the Mets, they are in first, but are seeing surprising competition from the Braves this year, and they cannot write off the Phillies no matter how hapless they might look right now.

The pitching matchup to spotlight here is Sunday’s pairing, with Oliver Perez facing off with Chris Capuano. Capuano is 4-0 this year with a 2.90 ERA in six starts, but only one of his six starts has been a quality start. Granted, his last outing was cut short by his having been drilled by a comebacker to his leg, but he has yet to go past six innings this year, and he could not even complete six innings in his first three starts. The Brewers are going to need more than this out of Capuano if they are going to stay in the hunt.

In Queens, they are asking, “Is the old Oliver Perez back?” And by old, they mean the absolutely filthy one in 2004 that looked like a future ace. He showed that form in his first start, but his second, where he completely melted down and walked seven in just 2 2/3 innings, had people thinking that he was back to being a bust. Perez has made three starts since then, and in those three he has allowed just three walks while striking out 28 in 19 1/3 innings. While his record of 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA is already solid, he would be 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA without that one meltdown. Yes, the dominant old Perez is back, and pity the hitters that have to face him.

 
If someone tells you J.J. Hardy is not for real, ask them why. You won't get a reason that makes any sense.

Hitter time now, and there is no more fun hitter to talk about right now than J.J. Hardy. As of today, Hardy is hitting .333 with eight homers, 26 RBI, and 20 runs. He has a 16-game hitting streak going that has seen him raise his average from .232 to .333, and seven of his homers have come during this run. Sure, there are haters out there – one said “expert” who touts his talent on a national network was telling people to sell him three homers, 12 RBI, and 20 hits ago. The haters would like to point to the fact that Hardy does not have much of a major league track record, and they would be right there. That would be ignoring the fact that he lost most of last year to injury though, and that he did look solid when he returned, and that he had shown the potential to be a stud shortstop in the minors, and that he was ranked No. 3 in the Brewers system by Baseball America back in 2004, behind only Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, at a time when the Brewers had arguably the best system in the minors. He was also ranked 19th overall in 2004 and 28th in 2005. In other words, anyone that acts like this is coming out of nowhere is an idiot or ignoring the facts.

For the Mets, the most surprising hitter this year for them has been Shawn Green. For a while, it has looked like Green gave up and had been phoning it in, but he has really stepped up his performance this year. Green did have a ten game hitting streak end on May 3rd, but he has hit in both games since then. While not the homer threat he once was, he does have four home runs and 18 RBI, and he has swiped a couple of bases as well. While a return to his 30-30 form is not going to happen, he is showing that he is still a major league hitter with his .348 batting average. How long will it last? Unsure, but ride it while you can.





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