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Hitter Movement and Fantasy Grumblings
Hitter Movement and Fantasy Grumblings
By Greg Pyron | Published  02/6/2007 | MLB Fantasy Grumblings - (2007) , Hitter Movement Grumblings - (2007)
Greg Pyron
Greg is entering his 11th season playing fantasy baseball. His work
covering fantasy baseball has appeared on FantasyBaseball.com and
Mastersball.com. He resides in Atlanta, GA.
 

View all articles by Greg Pyron
Fantasy Grumblings: Free Agent Hitter Movement


As we all know, a fairly large number of players change teams either through free agency or via trade every offseason making it almost impossible to be completely in-the-know. It's our goal at Sports Grumblings to keep you abreat of the fast paced player movement leading up to spring training.

This column will provide the skinny on hitters of note who have changed addresses since last season. Those preparing for fantasy drafts should without fail be familiar with these developments prior to draft day.

Provided in this analysis are the players overall ranking both in mixed and league formats. If the player is not in the Top-250 the rank will be reflected with the notation of (NR).

Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHI
SG Ranking
Mixed League (10)
NL Only (7)

Considering the season Soriano put together in 2006 and the $136 million contract he signed with the Cubs in November, expectations are sure to be sky high. Last season Soriano posted career highs in HR (46), OBP (.351), SLG (.560). The move to Wrigley Field should be beneficial to him offensively, but at the same time, it would be wise not to really allow that to influence your expectations for 2007. After all, it is important to remember that Soriano hit 24 of his 46 homers at pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium a year ago so depending on how the wind blows off the lake, matching those numbers will be difficult, let alone top them. Soriano is a safe bet to at least put up numbers similar to those he posted in 2005 (.268-36-104 with 30 SB) and possibly something in-between what he has done over the past two seasons.

Carlos Lee, OF, HOU
SG Ranking
Mixed League (44)
NL Only (23)

Lee should thrive at his new hitter-friendly home in Houston. He has been one of the most consistent hitters in the league over the past three years averaging (.290-33-110-97-14) per season during that period. There is no reason to expect a decline in any offensive department and it is quite possible he could reach the 40 home run mark for the first time in his career.

Adam LaRoche, 1B, PIT
SG Ranking
Mixed League (95)
NL Only (50)


LaRoche took a giant step forward in 2006 with by far the best season (.285-32-90 with .915 OPS – all career highs) of his young career. The 27-year-old followed a modest first half with a monster second half (.323-19-48-49-0 with 1.042 OPS). That surge, probably not coincidentally, came on the heels of LaRoche's decision to finally take prescription medication to help him deal with the attention deficit disorder that he was diagnosed with years ago. LaRoche admitted last summer that the disorder caused him to have lapses in concentration to the point where he would be daydreaming while at the plate and in the field—sometimes losing track of things such as the count and number of outs. Whatever the reason, LaRoche finally realized his potential last season. The move to Pittsburgh and hitter-friendly PNC Park figures to compliment his production of 2006. Let's just say we are bully on LaRoche moving forward.

Julio Lugo, SS/2B, BOS
SG Ranking
Mixed League (115)
AL Only (59)

After hitting .308-12-27-53-18 in 73 games prior to his July 31 trade to the Dodgers, Lugo struggled mightily the rest of the season (.219-0-10-16-6 in 49 games). Those struggles were at least partly due to an injured right middle-finger and the fact that he just never seemed to get comfortable with his utility role in Los Angeles. The move back to the familiar American League and into a fierce Red Sox lineup should bode well for Lugo in '07. He is expected to bat leadoff for Boston which means he should have a great chance to not only score 100 runs for the first time in his career, but surpass the mark.

Aubrey Huff, OF/1B/3B, BAL
SG Ranking
Mixed League (182)
AL Only (93)

The move to Baltimore should put an end to the trade rumors that have surrounded Huff for much of the past couple of seasons. Let us not forget that just two years ago he hit .297 with 29 homers and 104 runs batted in. He is expected to bat fifth and play everyday, primarily in left field for the Orioles. Huff has had success at Camden Yards throughout his career (.285-8-29 with .843 OPS in 48 games) so there is certainly reason to be optimistic about his chances in the coming season. Hitting behind Future Hall of Fame shortstop Miguel Tejada won't hurt.

Mike Piazza, C, OAK
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
AL Only (135)

Piazza moves to a situation that is tailor made to his talents. In Oakland, the veteran catcher will serve as the team's primary designated hitter. Not having to play defense, aside from the rare occasion, should help him stay upright for the majority of the season. There is a real chance that he could once again rank as a top-five catcher in 2007—but everything would have to fall into place for the future Hall Of Famer. Temper your expectations for the 38-year-old broken down catcher.

Gary Sheffield, OF, DET
SG Ranking
Mixed League (218)
AL Only (114)

The Tigers made a bold move acquiring the services of the 38-year-old Sheffield. Not only did Detroit send three pitching prospects to the Yankees in the trade, the Tigers then signed Sheffield to a two-year, $28 million contract extension. That means the Tigers now owe the veteran $41 million over the next three years. Sheffield is expected to see the vast majority of his playing time as the team's designated hitter, but the Tigers have said that he will see some time in the outfield as well. If the wrist that sidelined him for much of 2006 is fully healthy, Sheffield should put up solid numbers, but the move to pitcher-friendly Comerica Park will damper his production. Note that SG ranks Sheffield in a reserve role as a mixed league option. At 38-years-of-age, hitting from the right side at Comerica,  and being projected to play in only 120 games this season means veteran fantasy owners will avoid his services. If for nothing else his ADP won't equate to his production. Just because the Tigers overpaid for damaged goods, doesn't mean fantasy owners have too.

J.D. Drew, OF, BOS
SG Ranking
Mixed League (136)
AL Only (72)

The move to Boston offers Drew the opportunity to rival his impressive 2004 campaign, but that can only happen if he stays healthy. There is still lingering concern over his right shoulder. So much concern, in fact, that the Red Sox actually reworked the five-year, $70 million contract agreed to back in November to include financial safeguards against any future injuries to his shoulder. The experienced fantasy manager knows the Drew's MO. He is  the epitome of a high risk/high reward player, after missing 50 or more games four different times in his career.

Frank Thomas, DH, TOR
SG Ranking
Mixed League (184)
AL Only (97)

We've all seen what the big slugger is capable of offensively, but that potential comes with a risk. Thomas missed 25 games a year ago and played in just 108 games combined over the two seasons prior to that. There's no denying his ability to swing the bat, but one must also be prepared for the likelihood that he'll miss a significant number of games. If Thomas can manage to appear in close to 140 games again in 2007,  there's absolutely no reason to think he can't match the numbers (.270-39-114) he compiled last season.. But expecting an aging slugger with two bad knees to completely avoid the disabled list is not realistic. Those who witnessed Thomas hobble to first base last year know he's literally on his last leg.

Josh Barfield, 2B, CLE
SG Ranking
Mixed League (84)
AL Only (37)

Barfield posted solid numbers in his rookie season (.280-13-58-72-21 in 150 games) and the move to Cleveland should offer him more opportunities to produce offensively. The move from PETCO Park into the offensive firepower of the Indians lineup is favorable. The 24-year-old has the potential to hit 20 HR and it's possible he could enter the 20-20 club this summer.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD
SG Ranking
Mixed League (250)
NL Only (122)

Kouzmanoff was the principle player acquired from Cleveland in the Josh Barfield trade. The 25-year-old struggled with Cleveland late last year (.214-3-11 in 56 AB), but prior to that had a solid minor league campaign (.379-22-75 with 5 SB in 94 games) that was split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo. The Padres have veterans Russell Branyan and Todd Walker to back up the young-gun, so any offensive slump could place Kouzmanoff in a platoon role. Buyer Beware.

Mark DeRosa, INF/OF, CHC
SG Ranking
Mixed League (174)
NL Only (83)

DeRosa is a better platoon player than he is an everyday player (.983 OPS vs. LHP, .746 OPS vs. RHP in 2006 and .864 OPS vs. LHP, .683 OPS vs. RHP lifetime), but the Cubs will use him to plug the hole at second baseman this season. Much of his value comes from his multi-positional qualifications. The long time journeyman will be in the lineup virtually everyday -- but his move from the AL to the NL reduces his overall value.






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