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Hitter Movement and Fantasy Grumblings
Hitter Movement and Fantasy Grumblings
By Greg Pyron | Published  02/6/2007 | MLB Fantasy Grumblings - (2007) , Hitter Movement Grumblings - (2007)
Fantasy Grumblings: Free Agent Hitter Movement (cont)

Willy Taveras, OF, COL
SG Ranking
Mixed League (66)
NL Only (36)

Taveras could potentially see a modest boost in draft day value with his move to Colorado. Blessed with tremendous speed, the 24-year-old has struggled getting on base at a clip typical of a leadoff hitter (.333 OBP in '06, .329 OBP lifetime). Taveras should be able to use the spacious alleys of Coors Field to his offensive advantage and bolster his batting average, but he needs to improve his K/BB ratio (192 K/59 BB in 311 career games). 




Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
AL Only (NR)

Iwamura, 28, is a speedy five-time All-Star and six-time Gold Glove recipient from the Yakult Swallows of the Japanese Central League. He has batted 300 and blasted 30 homeruns or more in each of the past three seasons, but many scouts believe that his line drives will morph to gap power in the states. He comes with some risk due his propensity to strike out (173 Ks in 2004), and while he is projected to start at third base is far from a lock to garner a full load this season. He isn't a sleeper as much as he is an unkown at the major league level.

Marcus Giles, 2B, SD
SG Ranking
Mixed League (157)
NL Only (76)

Giles, admittedly, was never comfortable in the leadoff spot last season with the Braves. This contributed to the 28-year-old having a down year (.262-11-60-87-10), his worst since 2002. However, the root of his struggles could go deeper than that. Since his breakthrough season of 2003 (.316-21-69-101-14 with .917 OPS in 145 games), Giles has seen his batting average drop each year (.311 in '04, .291 in '05). He has also seen his OPS drop to .821 in '04, crawl back up to .826 in '05, and finally plummet to .729 last season. The move to San Diego (PETOC Park) won't assist in boosting any of his offensive categories, but the Padres hope playing in his hometown alongside his brother will create the atmosphere needed to return to his productive form.

Shea Hillenbrand, 1B/3B, LAA
SG Ranking
Mixed League (149)
AL Only (79)

The corner infielder was on pace for his typical statistical season (.301-12-39 in 81 games) but the trade that sent him to San Francisco resulted in mediocre season ending results. Hillenbrand struggled as a member of the Giants (.248-9-29 in 60 games), but returns to the American League as a member of the Angels. The coaches will use Hillenbrand more in a utility role moving him around the field and utilizing his power in the middle of lineup.

Moises Alou, OF, NYM
SG Ranking
Mixed League (233)
NL Only (112)

There is no disputing the fact that Alou is a productive player when healthy. The disclaimer of "when healthy" has been Alou's Achilles over the last several seasons. Alou has posted an OPS of .918 or better in each of the past three seasons, but after appearing in 155 games in 2004, his 'games played' have diminished to 123 in 2005 and just 97 a year ago. The 40-year-old will have his moments but shouldn't be depended on outside of NL-only leagues.

Juan Pierre, OF, LAD
SG Ranking
Mixed League (49)
NL Only (29)

Pierre exits the friendly and underachieving confines of Wrigley Field for the vast grasses of Dodger Stadium. Consistency and durability are two words that come to mind when one mentions Pierre's name. Consider that he has not missed a game since 2002, and during those four seasons he has averaged .300-2-44-96-56 and 203 hits. Expect more of the same in 2007.

Dave Roberts, OF, SF
SG Ranking
Mixed League (122)
NL Only (61)

Roberts is an aging and injury-prone platoon player who turns 35-years-old in May  -- so the fact that the Giants gave him a three-year, $18 million contract is out of character pertaining to their front office history. However, when healthy, he is a terror on the base paths averaging 39 steals per season after the age of 30. Roberts posted career highs in batting average (.293), runs scored (80), triples (13), stolen bases (49), and games played (129) a year ago so expecting back-to-back career years from a 35-year-old would be a metric miscalculation.

Jose Guillen, OF, SEA
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
AL Only (197)

Guillen had Tommy John surgery last July after tearing the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, but he's expected to be ready to compete when position players report this spring. The team will be cautious with Guillen so expecting him to be at full strength to start the season is expecting too much. The Mariners figure to position him in right field and bat him fifth or possibly sixth in the order. Though certainly not without risk, Guillen has upside as a late round selection in mixed formats. Keep in mind that he has averaged .289-26-90-85-3 as a full time player in 2004 and 2005.

Gary Matthews Jr., OF, LAA
SG Ranking
Mixed League (108)
AL Only (54)

Matthews had a career year in 2006 for the Rangers (.313-19-79-102-10 with .866 OPS) and it paid off to the tune of $50 million over five years with the Angels. The 32-year-old has a career batting average of .263 and .755 OPS. There is really nothing in his past to suggest he can come close to matching the numbers he posted a year ago and given his age, it's pretty unlikely he is suddenly putting it all together at this stage of his career. That said, he has always sported potential and late bloomers and aberrations do happen, even in the metrics ruled Major Leagues.

Wes Helms, 3B/1B, PHI
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
NL Only (141)

Helms reportedly turned down a more lucrative offer from the Yankees to take a two-year, $5.45 million contract to play for Philadelphia simply because he felt more comfortable there. The 30-year-old was quite productive in a part-time role with Florida last season (.329-10-47 with .390 OBP and .575 SLG in 240 AB). The Phillies plan on giving Helms the everyday job at third base over Abraham Nunez,  though Nunez could still serve as a late-inning defensive replacement. Helms, a career .268 hitter, is not likely to match last year's batting average, but he should be a solid performer for the Phillies this season. Think something along the lines of .275-23-80 while playing in the middle of a strong Philadelphia lineup and swinging a stick in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

David Dellucci, OF, CLE
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
AL Only (157)

Dellucci's struggles against left-handed pitching have always plagued him (.208-5-36 in 289 AB lifetime), often reducing him to a platoon role. He's also had a difficult time avoiding injury over the years. Dellucci is expected to platoon with right-handed hitting Jason Michaels in left field and give the Indians strong production for relatively little money.

Johnny Estrada, C, MIL
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
NL Only (125)

Estrada bounced back from an injury plagued 2005 season with a .301-11-71 campaign, one that resembled his breakout season of 2004 with the Braves. He is expected to be the team's primary back-stop this season with veteran Damian Miller spelling him when needed. Estrada is a good bet to finish 2007 with something along the lines of .305-12-75.

Kenny Lofton, OF, TEX
SG Ranking
Mixed League (166)
AL Only (86)

Lofton signed a one-year, $6 million contract to become the new center fielder and leadoff man for the Rangers. He is expected to take a seat to Marlon Byrd against lefties, but the soon to be 40-year-old should once again be a stolen base provider for fantasy owners. Loften still has the speed and the plate discipline to hit for average and if he can stay relatively healthy be a valuable commodity in AL-only formats. 



Frank Catalanotto, OF/DH, TEX

SG Ranking
Mixed League (227)
AL Only (119)

Catalanotto is set to begin his second stint with the Rangers after signing a three-year, $13.5 million contract in November. He is expected to serve as the team's designated hitter against right-handed pitching. A lifetime .297 hitter, the journeyman will post his usual stat line of .300-10-60--again in 2007.

Adam Kennedy, 2B, STL
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
NL Only (123)

Kennedy is back with the organization that drafted him after spending seven seasons in Los Angeles. He's historically struggled against left-handed pitching so the Cardinals will likely  utilize his services in a  platoon situation. Heading into spring training sharing second base with switch-hitting Aaron Miles is the most likely scenario.

Rich Aurilia, IB, SF
SG Ranking
Mixed League (212)
NL Only (100)

Aurilia figures to begin the season as the team's primary first baseman. Ryan Klesko, who signed to a one-year, $1.75 million contract in late December, could challenge for a possible platoon role at some point. Klesko had surgery last April to repair the AC joint in his left shoulder and finished the season with only four at-bats. Aurilia is coming off of his best season since 2001, but the 35-year-old is leaving friendlier hitting confines and entering the death valley that is AT&T Park.

Bengie Molina, C, SF
SG Ranking
Mixed League (201)
NL Only (93)

Molina, one of many veteran free agent winter acquisitions for the Giants, will get the majority of playing time behind the plate while Eliezer Alfonzo backs him up. Molina has averaged .284-15-63 over the past four seasons—all of which came in the American League.

Luis Gonzalez, OF, LAD
SG Ranking
Mixed League (NR)
NL Only (132)

Gonzalez has been on the decline for the past three years so the decision by the Dodgers to give him $7.35 million in 2007 is puzzling to say the least, especially given the fact they have younger talent in James Loney, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth, and Jason Repko in the wings. Gonzalez is moving from one of the league's more hitter-friendly parks to a park that has been historically pitcher-friendly. His career numbers at Dodger Stadium are paltry (.246-20-52 with .770 OPS in 109 games) and our expectations for Gonzalez are equally as low.





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