It's difficult to project which single personnel change
during the offseason will be the most statistically stunning at season's end,
but fantasy owners can use trends and analysis from previous seasons and pick
the brains of the metrically obsessed to gain a competitive edge.
While this winter's free agent shuffle isn't yet
complete, a quick look at the players who have benefited and digressed due to a
change in colors is in order.
For Better
1. Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs have made long-awaited strides this offseason and are in
position to compete again for a National League pennant. New skipper Lou
Piniella replaces Dusty Baker, and fantasy phenom Soriano was signed
to one of the richest contracts ever to join a stout middle of the order with Aramis
Ramirez and Derrek Lee. The team also signed utility king Mark
DeRosa to fill a hole at second base, which means Soriano will remain in
the outfield for the second straight season.
Soriano's "Triple 40" last season (40 homers,
40 doubles and 40 steals), a first in baseball history, was impressive, but it
was his career-high 67 walks that offers him the label of a complete player.
Additionally, the favorable move from pitcher-friendly RFK to hitter-friendly
Wrigley Field can't be overlooked. While it will be difficult to select the
30-year-old slugger ahead of players like Albert Pujols or Carl
Crawford, it won't be a surprise to see him garner honors as the top
fantasy producer for the second consecutive year.
2. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Pittsburgh
The Braves traded LaRoche to the Pirates for reliever Mike Gonzalez despite
offering strong indications that he could be the left-handed slugger the team envisioned.
The development of 25-year-old Scott Thorman allowed John Schuerholz
to deal LaRoche this winter for a quality arm for an undermanned bullpen.
The Pirates' new first baseman, at 27, makes a
favorable move to hitter-friendly PNC
Park. LaRoche is projected
to bat cleanup behind fantasy stud Jason
Bay, giving him the
protection he needs to reproduce his outstanding .621 slugging percentage away
from Turner Field. Don't be surprised if the Bucs' new bag-man hits 40-plus
home runs this season.
3. Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco
Raise your hand if you believed that Zito wouldn't have to hire a real estate
agent when he finally departed Oakland?
While most believed Barry would be pitching in Shea Stadium this spring, his
move to pitcher-friendly AT&T
Park all but assures
fantasy owners he will register a sub-4.00 ERA. The fact that not one NL West
team, the Giants included, has a formidable offense offers the 28-year-old
southpaw the potential to post the best numbers of his career. Registering
15-18 wins and close to 180 strikeouts should be expected from the one-time AL
Cy Young winner.
4. Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona
The future Hall-of-Fame
left-hander is coming off a Big Apple campaign that saw his ERA ascend to a
career-worst 5.00. At 43, Johnson's best mound days are behind him, but a
return to the NL will enable him to produce better numbers. Johnson had back
surgery in October but is reported to be feeling young and spry. His return to
the senior circuit makes him a prime candidate for comeback player of the year.
5. Aubrey Huff, 3B/OF, Baltimore
He takes his left-handed bat and his .820 career OPS to the short right-field
fence of Camden Yards. Huff is being overlooked by most fantasy experts this
winter. The 30-year-old is capable of producing attractive numbers
(.300/30/100) hitting behind Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada.
6. Andy Pettitte, SP, N.Y. Yankees
Normally, I would never call it a
positive when a starting pitcher
makes a move from the NL to the AL, but Pettitte has an
intimate relationship with historic Yankee Stadium. The southpaw is one of the
few players this year who have reconciled with old ownership -- and returned to
a marriage that was for the most part fruitful. Pettitte's 3.10 K/BB ratio in
hitter-friendly Minute
Maid Park
proved he still has complete command of his arsenal. His 81-30 career record
and 3.45 ERA in the Bronx give the 34-year old
a chance to win 15-18 games and register 160-plus strikeouts this season.
That's clearly good enough to classify him as a No. 1 starter in AL-only
leagues and a solid No. 2 or 3 in mixed formats.
For Better -- Honorable Mention:
J.D. Drew, OF, Boston
Miguel Batista, SP, Seattle
Jose Vidro, 2B/DH, Seattle
