For Worse
1. Octavio Dotel, RP, Kansas City
The Royals will lose 100 games for
the fourth straight time this season. Chisel it in stone, and AL-only owners
will reach too early for Dotel in most drafts, all for the single contribution
of saves. Dotel has late-inning experience, but has been injured and/or
ineffective as a closer since 2005. He hasn't had much live mound work since
Tommy John surgery, a procedure that has sidelined him for more than a year.
Outside of a late-round stab, owners should avoid Dotel and the talent-less
roster of the Royals.
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, San Diego
The San Diego brass thinks highly of 25-year-old third baseman Kouzmanoff. That
the Padres would send second baseman Josh Barfield, who is only 23 and
coming off a breakout season, to Cleveland
this winter for Kouzmanoff speaks volumes about his talent. He has the tools to
be a successful major league player, but with half of his plate appearances in
pitcher-friendly PETCO
Park, he will be a more
reliable reality asset than fantasy option.
3. Wes Helms, 3B, Philadelphia
Helms, 30, is expected to return to full-time duty this season as the Phillies'
starting third baseman. He had what should be considered a breakout season,
albeit in a part-time role for the Marlins last year, hitting .324 against
right-handers and registering an amazing .630 slugging percentage. While Helms
will see more playing time, at-bats and an increase in power numbers playing
half of his games at Citizens
Bank Park,
it's unrealistic to expect him to produce at any level above his career average
of .268. The move to hitter-friendly CBP will do little more than raise
statistical expectations Helms can't possibly fulfill. He'll most likely be
drafted before the true value slot of his average draft position.
4. Frank Thomas, DH, Toronto
After being named the AL Comeback Player of the Year thanks to 39 home runs and
114 RBI in 2006, Thomas will be overvalued in AL-only leagues. The 38-year-old
has made a favorable change in colors by moving to the hitter-friendly Rogers
Centre. But because of his age and his DH-only qualification, he's a roster
hindrance who requires more maintenance than most owners want or need.
5. Mike Gonzalez, RP, Atlanta
Coming off an outstanding 2006 season that saw the hard-throwing left-hander
convert all 24 of his save opportunities, Gonzo moves his 2.17 ERA from
Pittsburgh to Atlanta and will work in the setup role for closer Bob Wickman.
The 28-year-old fireballer struck out 64 hitters in 54 innings last year, and
while he'll garner his share of saves this season, owners will want to avoid
the Braves closer-by-committee this spring.
6. Joe Borowski, RP, Cleveland
Although Borowski is in the closer
mix in Cleveland (along with Keith Foulke),
a switch from the offensively challenged NL to the designated hitting AL won't allow JoBo to
repeat his 36 saves of a year ago. Borowski not only will have to face lineups
with more meat, but also he leaves the cozy confines of Dolphin Stadium.
For Worse -- Honorable Mention:
Shea Hillenbrand, 1B/3B, L.A. Angels
Jeff Suppan, SP, Milwaukee
Remember, reactive approaches can only get you so far.
Proactive approaches are what will make you a legend. "It don't mean a
thing if you don't win that bling."
