But isn't it great when we make a decision that turns out to be a huge success? The kind of success that can give you a huge edge over your competition…as well as several months worth of bragging rights about your ability to judge talent.

Think about it…we make countless decisions in our daily lives, but how many of those provide us with the opportunity to jump on the phone and tell five or six friends just how right we really were? Not many.

You don't storm into your boss's office and start bragging about how the new photocopier you just bought for the company is running like a champ. You don't call your spouse and talk for hours about how you avoided a huge rush-hour traffic jam by going out for a few beers after work. And you certainly don't send a dozen e-mail messages to your co-workers about how great the new lunch spot you discovered a few weeks back has turned out to be.

That's right…once again; real life fails to deliver as much pure satisfaction as rotisserie baseball. But I digress.

Today's column is all about one of the most important aspects of being right about a player: cashing in on your investment.

All too often, rotisserie owners fail to realize great rewards from their good decisions for the same basic reason many investors fail to make money in the stock market: they let emotions dictate their decisions.

Think back to some of the players you've "discovered" over the years who have put up monster first half numbers. How many of those players - who were at one time coveted by the other owners in your league - eventually went on to see a significant drop in value?

Chances are you've had something like this happen to you at least once: You draft a nice "sleeper" player late in your auction for a reasonable price. Not the "Steal of the Draft"…but still, a player you're very happy about getting. And then - in the first eight weeks of the season - that player is just on fire. Hitting way above his career average - with more power or speed than anyone expected.

As is your right (if not your obligation), you take every opportunity to remind your fellow owners just how right you were about this player…and how they could have had him for just one more dollar.

But along the way - as the player's value soars and your confidence grows - something happens. You find yourself getting caught up in the hype surrounding the player…and you decide that he is "untouchable." ("Untouchable", by the way, is one word that should be immediately stricken from your rotisserie vocabulary.)

I'll bet you can guess where this story is headed, right? The player - not long after you turned down a solid trade offer - begins to slump and soon reverts to a more mediocre production level. You might try frantically to deal him at some point…but by then it's too late; you've missed your opportunity.

Again, if you're like most rotisserie players, you've been guilty of this at least once in your life…if not more. But it's something that can easily be avoided.

Here then, is a list of four simple questions you should ask yourself about each of your players as the baseball season approaches the halfway point. Simply forcing yourself to think of each player in these terms will help you identify those players who might present you with a unique opportunity to "cash in" and make a successful trade.

Question #1: How Far "Above His Head" Is Your Player Currently Playing?

This is - without question - one of the most important questions you should ask yourself periodically about any player on your team who's playing exceptionally well. The answer, more often than not, will help you determine whether or not the success is just a short-term flash or a sign of greater things to come.

But before getting too caught up in a half-season of on-field brilliance…take a few minutes to figure out whether or not your player's extraordinary numbers could ever have been predicted.
Did he ever put up similar numbers in the minors? How far ahead of his "typical" numbers is he? 20%? 30%? 50%? (If the player is too young for "typical" seasons to have been established, Minor League Equivalencies should be used.)

While there's no rule set in stone as to what percentage "above normal" should be considered a fluke…the mere act of asking yourself the question should help give you some idea as to what kind of second half performance can be expected.

Question #2: How Old Is He?

Again, this is a situation where common sense should come into play. It's rare that a 35 year-old player will suddenly figure it all out and see a sustained surge in production. (It's possible…but the odds are very much against it.)

And by the same token - a younger player also may not be as dependable as you might think after an unexpected rise in performance. A player 25 or younger may simply be enjoying a prolonged hot streak…but major league pitchers typically make adjustments and younger players have a more difficult time responding to those adjustments than more seasoned veterans.

While each individual situation is different, a good rule of thumb is that a significant upturn in performance from any player younger than 25 or older than 32 should be taken with a grain of salt.

If age doesn't seem to be relevant in any particular situation, you should instead look at the player's level of experience. Has your hitter logged a significant number of major league at bats (800 or more?) that would lead you to believe he's now faced nearly every possible adjustment that pitchers can make?

For pitchers - has the hurler logged enough innings to demonstrate an ability to get major league hitters out? Or, if this is a 30 year-old career minor leaguer…are there enough pitches left in his arm after all those years of bus rides?

Obviously you should look at age/experience in combination with the other questions outlined here…but this factor alone could play the largest role in determining whether or not you should hold onto a particular player.

Question #3: Does He Have a Proven History of Second Half Success?

Some players simply have a well-earned reputation for performing well in the early part of the season year after year. And a portion of that group also has a reputation for declining by 20% or more in the second half…seemingly every year.

Every rotisserie owner worth his salt should have easy access to a player's career stats - including breakdowns that include first half vs. second half. Take a few minutes to look back at the players on your team who might be guilty of second half drop-offs that can kill your rotisserie squad.

Keep in mind with this comparison that you're not looking at your player's first half numbers in relation to his career stats or his "typical season" stats. Instead, you're looking to see if this player has a history of second half drop-offs that should be of concern.

On a related note…when looking for players to acquire in potential deals, it's always wise to look for players who have a solid track record of second half success. There are dozens of articles on the Internet at this very minute about who should have a good second half…but do your homework and look for players who have consistently had solid second halves throughout their careers.

Question #4: What Can You Get For Him?

Ah yes…time for the highly subjective, "What can I get for him?" question to be considered. And - unlike the other three questions listed in this column - you can't simply find the answer to this one on a web site somewhere.

Instead, you need to fire off some e-mails - and make some phone calls - to find out what a few of your players might be worth to your fellow owners. Obviously, this will take some time…and you shouldn't blatantly try and waste the time of your colleagues in order to gain some information about your players.

But in most competitive leagues - particularly in the months of June and July - trades are discussed regularly. Hypothetical situations are proposed…and many of them never make it to the transaction page.

What you need to do is identify a handful of players who have put together solid numbers in the first half of this season who might be attractive to other teams. Throw out some of these names - in conjunction with one or two of your bona-fide star players - to see what kind of offers you get in return.

By simply substituting one player for another, you should be able to determine just how highly your potential trading partner values each of your players. And this information can be invaluable to you as you make decisions about who to keep and who to deal.

Remember that the overall goal - at least in most cases - is to win your league this season. So the value you might receive in return for a first half superstar needs to be taken into consideration when making your decision. If you can make a deal that you know will help you get closer to the title this year - while at the same time removing the doubts about your player's second half potential - then you most likely need to bite the bullet and make the deal. (Just remember…you can talk as much trash about your successful trade as you did about your first half bargain!)

Conclusion

As I stated at the beginning of this piece…rotisserie baseball is a great game. Not only does it allow us to enjoy the game of baseball more than we ever had without it…it also allows us the unique opportunity to tell the world just how smart we are.

A big part of being smart - and winning championships - involves knowing when to "cash in" on a good draft day decision and get maximum value in return for a player. And while there are no hard-and-fast rules that I would recommend following for knowing when to make a trade…you can give yourself better odds for making a good deal by considering the four simple questions I've outlined in this column.

Taking emotions - the "human element" - out of the equation is often very difficult. But by doing so, you force yourself to make better decisions than most of the owners you'll be competing with. By giving yourself just the slightest edge - be it with draft strategy, roster management or at the trading deadline - you'll most likely find yourself winning more championships (and talking more trash) year after year.

Have a question or comment for Jody? Send it to jodymadron@sportsgrumblings.com