Closing Notes 

You ever have that feeling that no matter what you choice you make you simply can’t win?  That is exactly the same feeling manager Phil Garner of the Houston Astros has this season.  He began the season with high hopes for the return to form of closer Brad Lidge, and that certainly didn’t pan out as planned.  Then, he bows to pressure and names Dan Wheeler his closer.  A look at the numbers for Wheeler since that May 29 shows that isn’t turning out as planned either.  Since the 29^th, Wheeler has seen his ERA skyrocket from 3.04 to 6.03, and if doubling your misery is not enough, he has given up three or more earned runs in four out of ten appearances.  So, for Astros fans, two out of five times he comes in the games, he will give up at least three earned runs.  A look at Brad Lidge’s numbers only compounds the agony.  Lidge over the same period has seen his ERA drop from 2.92 to 2.34 while striking out 14 batters in 11 innings pitched.  So, are you ready to thrust Lidge back in the limelight?  You have to wonder how long Garner will wait before making the switch back.  Yet, let us not forget that the same Brad Lidge was 0-for-3 in save opportunities and pitching like Dan Wheeler before all of this.  Damned if you do and damned if you don’t.   

A high ERA doesn’t always mean you need to make a change at closer though.  Case in point: if you went by ERA, the Indians would have replaced Joe Borowski with Rafael Betancourt long before this point in the season.  Betancourt has been on fire this season, and has electric stuff.  The Venezuelan product is averaging a strikeout per inning while maintaining a stifling 1.17 ERA.  Borowski, on the other hand, allows a grotesque 6.33 earned runs per nine innings giving him the highest ERA in the majors for a closer.  So, why are Indians fans and management not crying for his ouster?  A closer look at the numbers reveals that things are perfect the way they are.  Borowski has converted 20 of 22 opportunities this season and has the proven track record.  Betancourt blew the only save opportunity he was given and is not a proven commodity at closer.  For better or worse, closers have a mentality that is clearly evident in their approach and Betancourt has had plenty of time in his career to show he has it.  He is a career 9-for-24 in save opportunities even with a career 3.02 ERA, and, in the end, the only thing that matters is that you save the game, which is something Borowski does even if he doesn’t make it pretty. 

Some teams are simply snake bitten when it comes to closers.  Take the Cincinnati Reds – please, take them.  The Reds fans are sick of mediocrity.  I’m sure back in the 70’s, no Reds fan could have ever dreamed of a year when the Milwaukee Brewers would outclass their franchise.  That simply would have been unheard of.  Yet, how the mighty have fallen over the years.  One thing has been a constant since their last great run and that is the lack of a dominant closer.  At a point in MLB when it seems like every team has some kind of electric arm at the back of their bullpen, the Reds have to settle for David Weathers every season and whatever new flavor of the month catches their attention.  They finally seem to have caught on to the fact that they might as well settle in with Weathers for the long run, which has only taken them three or four years to figure out.  Weathers is another example of a closer who doesn’t make it pretty but he does get it done.  He doesn’t have the stuff to blow people away and his ERA always hovers in the mid 3s to low 4s, but he also just seems to get the job done.  If the Reds won a little more, he would also get a little more notoriety.  That is the one big difference between him and Todd Jones of the Detroit Tigers this year.  Jones owns an abysmal 5.06 ERA and can’t strike out anybody to save his life, but the Tigers win a lot more than the Reds.  He has more saves than Weathers (17 to 13), but he also has more blown saves than Weathers (4 to 2).  Sometimes, it is simply the luck of the draw.

Meanwhile, another team that used to have trouble finding consistent closers finds itself with a nice tandem.  The Red Sox were worried about the strain that closing would have on Jonathan Papelbon’s arm based on his fatigued shoulder before the end of last season.  Then, one unheralded transaction brought them Hideki Okajima and their prayers were answered.  Okajima is the “bomb” when it comes to middle relievers.  Unlike other middle guys who don’t fare well when given their chance to close, Okajima seems to rise to another level and thrive as both a middle reliever and closer.  For anyone who thought his big save against the Yankees might be a fluke, think again.  He is 4-for-5 in save opportunities with a sterling 1.04 ERA.  He has the perfect bulldog mentality as both a middle reliever and closer, which is a huge plus for the Red Sox.  Hitters from both sides of the plate hit under .160 against the lefty, and his .81 WHIP is almost unheard of.  Add in the fact that he strikes out almost a batter per inning without a 90+ fastball, and every other team in the league is left kicking themselves for not spending a couple million for two years on him and not taking a shot on a lefty with a good Japanese track record.  You can bet people will stop focusing so heavily on the starters and closers in Japan and begin looking at every pitcher with solid pedigree. 

Rising/Falling

Mark did a nice job of adjusting the rankings last week.  We will “Let them ride” to use a casino term for another week. 

The Rankings