An expert on baseball's Junior Circuit, Don's has worked as a columnist both in print and online for multiple outlets over the past seven years. This is Don's first season at Sports Grumblings.
Junior League Grumblings for the Week of June 19th...
Mediocre for a while now, Covelli was Cocolicious last night in Atlanta.
Rather than take a tour of each individual team around the AL, I will just highlight a few interesting players and some other issues that deserve comments. It makes for a better read, in my opinion.
Note that I write this column on Monday afternoon and then put the finishing touches on it during Monday night. There has been several times where what I have written about on Monday afternoon must be updated on Monday night because events have changed. For example, last week when the D-Rays were going to recall two players, I had suggested that they bring up Jason Hammel and put him in middle relief for a while. Lo and behold, later that day my suggestion was realized. I mention this because I wrote about Coco Crisp this afternoon…and then he gets four hits tonight with two homers… which means I will have altered my comments to reflect this.
Jay Gibbons (BAL, OF/DH) – I like writing about Gibbons since I think his plight is interesting. He has struggled through this season so far in a variety of ways and is probably very happy that the Orioles have a new manager. The self-professed streaky hitter, Gibbons has been in a funk the entire year, but was not afforded a long opportunity to break out of his slump. The problem is roster make-up, actually. The Orioles have hitters who have been regulars through much of their career and tend to complain (sometimes loudly!) when they are out of the lineup for an extended period of time (or, in the case of Melvin Mora, one game). Compounding the problem is that all of these players competing for playing time are average, at best – there isn’t a star in the bunch of Kevin Millar, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, Jay Gibbons, Jay Payton and Corey Patterson. Oh…and none of these guys are what you would call an up-and-coming player. Maybe you can make the argument about Corey Patterson (since he is only 27), but he’s been worse than Gibbons so far this season and you might be inclined to believe his best days have already past him.
So…what do I think will happen here in Baltimore (whoever the new manager turns out to be)? Well, the Orioles are last in the AL in home runs, so I’d have to think that getting (potential) power into their lineup is crucial. Thus, I think Gibbons will play against every right-handed pitcher. The other two lineup positions contested will be between Corey Patterson, Jay Payton and Kevin Millar. I suspect that Corey Patterson will play everyday in the short term, leaving Millar and Payton to fight it out for playing time. The best use of those at bats would be to have Payton get the bulk of the time, with Millar coming off the bench on most nights to pinch hit. I like this scenario since, if Millar is pinch-hitting, it is likely the game is on the line. Millar can draw a walk, if need be, so I like him in that role (with Freddie Bynum around to run for Millar if he gets on base). Note that this against right-handers only; when facing a left-hander, Millar will start.
Coco Crisp (BOS, CF) – The Red Sox are on an internal search for a lead-off hitter. Currently, that has been given to JD Drew after Julio Lugo was demoted towards the bottom of the order. What about Coco Crisp? He has batted lead-off six times this season after appearing there the bulk of the time in 2006. The reality is that all Crisp needs to do is get hot for a few days and he’ll find himself back in the lead-off role. . Crisp has a hit in eight of his last nine games, but really needs a few multi-hit games to help him out. A few 3 – 5 outings would do his rotisserie value a world of good (or, a four-hit game with two homers, like on Monday). If you can get him very cheap (maybe not anymore…), and likely you can, you might want to explore this. The Red Sox will continue playing him because he provides defense at an important position (CF).
Miguel Cairo (NYY, 1B) – It really does seem that Miguel Cairo, once he gets regular at bats, will steal bases more often. Since getting a regular gig in play of Doug Mientkiewicz (and Josh Phelps, apparently), Cairo has five stolen bases in six attempts. And the Yankees seem in no hurry to replace Cairo, especially since they are winners of 11 games in their past 12 outings. Why mess with success. So, if you are desperate for some speed, Cairo is a good pick-up in the short-term. He’ll get at bats and qualifies at a wide variety of positions, depending on your league’s eligibility rules.
Now here are some AL Grumblings throughout the league…
My brother-in-law asked me about the situation in Oakland…what with the lots of players for a limited number of slots. It is kind of like the Baltimore situation, but with better players! It is a good situation for Bob Geren. He’ll be able to provide Milton Bradley with a lot of rest once he comes off the DL. Bradley is quite effective when healthy, so keeping him off the DL by not, say, playing him three straight games would be a good strategy or resting him on a day game after a night game. Now, for fantasy purposes, this isn’t very good. You’d rather have a stud player who plays every day than have one of the guys you are counting on resting on the bench. Chances are that someone will get hurt (someone always does) and this logjam will resolve itself.
When looking for guys who should rebound from atrocious hit rates on balls in play, I think it is important to look find players who have decent K-rates. Of the 70 pitchers in the AL with more than 40 IP this season, Kevin Millwood ranks 67th with a batting average on balls-in-play of 0.360. However, his 7.3 Ks / 9 IP is attractive. With a regression to the mean on hit rates plus a helpful K-rate, Millwood is a great target in a buy low move for pitching. Note that Felix Hernandez (he of the 9.7 Ks / 9 IP) is 69th in the AL with a batting average on balls-in-play of 0.365. On the flip side, Steve Trachsel is fourth in the AL with a 0.225 average on balls-in-play (and only 2.5 Ks/ 9 IP). Trachsel is on the short list of pitchers who are eligible to blow up (in a bad way) big time during the rest of the season.
So, Jon Gomes has returned with a vengeance from Triple-A. Will it last? It could. He played really well during the early part of last year, but apparent shoulder problems (it limited him to DH) took a huge toll. He is back now and hitting homers. Watch his walks also. He could easily be a very valuable player for the rest of the season for the resurgent Devil Rays.
Scott Baker continues to get hit hard but Matt Garza is, apparently, still not ready at Triple-A. Garza has walked at least one batter in each of his 14 starts this year and is coming off a 10 hit performance in his last outing (with nine strikeouts though). Ron Gardenhire passed the buck on Baker’s immediate future, noting that the GM hasn’t informed him that they are doing something different. If Glen Perkins wasn’t injured, he’d probably already be in the rotation.
I just wonder how long the Royals will stick with Ryan Shealy. The Kansas City first baseman had only his eighth extra base hit of the year on Tuesday. Billy Butler is learning (albeit slowly) to play first base at Triple-A, so the writing is on the wall for Shealy. He seems destined to find himself as a guy who jumps back and forth between Major League reserve and Triple-A power hitter. Let’s face it – this is his shot and he has to improve dramatically.
I have been worried about Adrian Beltre for a while now and really hoped they would just put him on the DL when he injured his thumb. As I thought would happen, Beltre re-injured his thumb swinging the bat last week. My bet is that they put him on the DL retroactive to June 12th and then recall him on the 27th.
Without a real first baseman on the roster, the Rangers will go with Brad Wilkerson against all pitching for the time being. For Wilkerson owners, this is the break you have been waiting for. If he gets hot, Wilkerson can establish himself as a regular again, even when Mark Teixeira returns.
Jason Hammel pitched well in relief of the injured Edwin Jackson on Monday. This was the break the Devil Rays were waiting for. They don’t want to pass Jackson through waivers, but DL’ing Jackson (followed by, say, the full rehab) would give them a starting rotation of Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel and J. P. Howell. Combine that with a seventh, eighth, and ninth inning of Jay Witasick, Gary Glover and Al Reyes, and you have the makings of a team that could be at 0.500 by the All-Star Break. The problem with the Devil Rays were that they had too many games where they were out of it early (thank you Jae Seo and friends) and, when they did have a lead, they often couldn’t bridge it to Al Reyes. Even with all the bad press the Texas Rangers have had with their pitching (and rightly so), the Devil Rays have allowed the most runs in the Majors.