In PART I of this three-part SERIES, I spent time explaining just what the new metric SWIP is. Rather than restating everything that was listed in the previous discussion, I would just suggest that you take a moment to click over to that story so that we can all move forward on the same page (SWIP- Part I).

Assuming that you have now read the explanation of SWIP, here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate what follows.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Remember, the 2006 ML average for SWIP was 0.37. 

With that, let’s get to what you really want to see, and that is how the starting pitchers performed in 2006.

PITCHER	SO	BB	IP	WHIP	SWIP
Johan Santana	245	47	233.2	1.00	0.85
Curt Schilling	183	28	204	1.22	0.76
Jake Peavy	215	62	202.1	1.23	0.76
Mike Mussina	172	35	197.1	1.11	0.69
Aaron Harang	216	56	234.1	1.27	0.68
John Smoltz	211	55	232	1.19	0.67
C.C. Sabathia	172	44	192.2	1.17	0.66
J. Bonderman	202	64	214	1.30	0.64
Brett Myers	189	63	198	1.30	0.64
Chris Carpenter	184	43	221.2	1.07	0.64
O. Hernández	164	61	162.1	1.33	0.63
Javier Vázquez	184	56	202.2	1.29	0.63
Dave Bush	166	38	210	1.14	0.61
Félix Hernández	176	60	191	1.34	0.61
Dan Haren	176	45	223	1.21	0.59
Roy Oswalt	166	38	220.2	1.17	0.58
Chris Capuano	174	47	221.1	1.25	0.57
Randy Johnson	172	60	205	1.24	0.55
Brandon Webb	178	50	235	1.13	0.54
John Lackey	190	72	217.2	1.26	0.54
Chris Young	164	69	179.1	1.13	0.53
Erik Bedard	171	69	196.1	1.35	0.52
Kelvim Escobar	147	50	189.1	1.28	0.51
Ian Snell	169	74	186	1.46	0.51

As you can see from a comparison of WHIP and SWIP in the last couple of columns, there is quite a bit of variance between the two lists, though some similarities do exist.

Johan Santana leads both lists, but since he is the best starting pitcher currently hurling the ball, there is zero surprise in that. Tied for 8^th in SWIP were Jeremy Bonderman and Brett Myers, two pitchers that had somewhat high WHIPs in 2006 (1.30). Based on their age, power arms and growing proficiency, I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both of them take the next step this year. SWIP would agree that hidden in last year's performance for those two was a high degree of dominance that might not have been viewable in their standard statistical lines (Bonderman 4.08 ERA, Myers only 12 wins).

The case of El Duque is one worth discussing. While his SWIP mark of 0.63 was just a tick behind the best fantasy pitcher in the NL Chris Carpenter (0.64), Hernandez is unlikely to be a solid target in 2007. Hernandez threw his most innings since 2000 while his 164 Ks were a career-high, not something likely to be repeated considering the fact that he is listed at, wink-wink, 38-years old. However, the other Hernandez on the list, Felix, is certainly a top target this year. He will only be 20 on opening day and despite his "struggles" last year he still had 176 Ks.

Javier Vazquez always seems to be on the cusp of something, and SWIP says that he has dominant stuff (0.63). For the last seven years he has had at least 150 Ks, but he has won more than 14 games only once. Still, he can be dominant, and there is always the chance of a big season coming from his right arm.

Dave Bush had 12 wins and a 4.41 ERA, but with a 1.14 WHIP (4^th in the NL), and a 0.61 SWIP (13th), a similar season of dominance could easily lead to a breakthrough (he had a stellar 4.27 K/BB ratio last year).

Ian Snell pitches for the Pirates which automatically lowers his value, but he won 14 games last year and had a 9.28 K/9IP ratio in the season's second half.

Some notable omissions from the leaderboard include:

0.50 Andy Pettitte, Bronson Arroyo, Scott Olsen, Brad Penny

All four of these guys were just a tick off the leaderboard, but there are different outlooks for each in 2007. Pettitte returns to the AL which can't help, and he has continued to be bothered by elbow issues. Arroyo was a savior for the Reds who he set career best marks across the board. He likely will have a tough time repeating last years performance as the NL gets used to him. In addition, he pitches in a hitters paradise in Cincinnati. Olsen is a lefty that bears watching and he would make an excellent late-round pickup in mixed leagues. With 166 Ks last season, he had the same total as Roy Oswalt in 40 less IP. And Brad Penny? Pass there, the guy is just a tease who always finds some reason to fail to live up to expectations.

0.48 Matt Cain, Kevin Millwood

Cain fits perfectly the mold of a young, hard thrower that you should be targeting on draft day. Cain had one more K than NL Cy Young Winner Brandon Webb last year in 44.1 fewer IP. The difference between the two was their control; Cain had 87 BB, Webb only 50. Millwood is usually a solid option once the top guys are gone, and continued to fill that role last year (16 wins, 1.31 WHIP).

0.47 Jason Schmidt

Moving to LA likely will have little effect on Schmidt's numbers. The last two years Schmidt has won only 23 games, and because of a decrease in his K/9IP from 10.04 in 2004 to 7.96 last season, Schmidt's SWIP mark also declined the past two years from his 0.77 total in 2004 (0.47, 0.47).

0.45 Roy Halladay

If he could just stay healthy. Halladay continued to post a strong SWIP despite a lowering of his K/9IP rate last year from 6.86 in 2005 to 5.40. The reason is that he simply doesn't walk any batters (only 1.39 per 9 IP last year), and that is a big part of the SWIP battle.

0.44 Carlos Zambrano

Zambrano is a highly intriguing pitcher. Zambrano is a workhorse who has eclipsed 200 IP in the past four seasons. He has also seen his K total increase each year during that run (168, 188, 202, 210). However, Zambrano has walked at least 80 batters in each of the past four seasons, and his 115 free passes last year led the majors. If he could cut down on the walks, his SWIP would skyrocket, and most likely his overall success would too.

0.41 Josh Beckett

Beckett's owns strikeout rate of 8.46 per 9 IP for his career, but that number fell below 8 for the first time last year when he posted just a 6.95 mark. His BB rate of 3.25 per 9 IP was just below his career mark (3.29), so his SWIP will rise if he can once again recapture his K form. Look for a rebound here if for no other reason than he will likely cut his HRs allowed (a career-high 36 last season). Beckett had never allowed even 20 HRs in any previous year.

0.39 Gil Meche

The big signee with the Royals has a long way to go as evidence by his 0.39 SWIP which was just barely above the ML average from 2006 (0.37). Here are Meche's SWIP totals for his 6-year career: (-0.12), 0.23, 0.36, 0.41, 0.39. That ain't worth $11 million a season.

0.34 Dontrelle Willis, Justin Verlander

Willis was very close to his career K/9IP rate of 6.73 with a 6.45 mark in 2006. Problem is, his walk rate went way up since he walked 28 more batters than in 2005 despite throwing 13 less innings. Verlander had solid overall numbers (17-9, 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), but his second half was poor (7-5, 4.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). Even though he had those poor numbers after the all-star game, Verlander's SWIP actually improved slightly in the second half (0.37).