0.24  Barry Zito

Zito moves across the bay to San Francisco amidst a run of decreasing effectiveness the past few years, the result of a regressing K/9IP mark as well as an increasing BB/9IP mark. Here are Zito’s SWIP marks the past 6-years: 0.58, 0.45, 0.25, 0.38, 0.36, 0.24. Considering that he last four marks are either average or below average, Zito is clearly one of those pitchers who win despite what SWIP says about him.

Here are the worst SWIP pitchers who qualified for the ERA title. Remember from PART I, pitchers who are below 0.20 are in serious danger of losing their spot as a useful fantasy pitcher.

 0.18    Jeff Suppan, Kenny Rogers

Suppan has almost zero chance of matching his second half performance of 2006 for the Brewers this year (6-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Suppan simply doesn’t miss enough bats with an average of 109 Ks the past three years. I find it interesting that Suppan and Rogers ended up with the same SWIP mark in 2006 since they are such similar pitchers. If you grab either of these guys, all you can hope for are wins and hope they don’t kill your ratios. I would pass.

0.14    Joel Pineiro

Well, if you are this bad as a starter why not become a closer right? Time will tell if the Red Sox are genius here or if they just simply failed to see the signs that the rest of us did.

0.11  Chien-Ming Wang, Jason Marquis

Marquis, well, there is no surprise that he stunk last year considering his 6.02 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Wang is probably a shock to most who are focused solely on his 19 wins. Wang struck out 76 batters in 2006, that is less than the 95 strikeouts closer Joe Nathan had…in 149.2 fewer IP! It would be a shock if Wang repeats last season’s numbers (19 wins, 3.63 ERA), though being that he is a sinkerballer, he does have a chance to confound SWIP slightly. Still, I simply can’t recommend him.

And the worst pitcher, according to SWIP, to qualify for the ERA title in 2006 was…Steve Trachsel, he of the new 1-year, $3 million dollar contract with the Orioles. Trachsel had 79 Ks, 78 BB and 164.2 IP in 2006 for a SWIP of 0.01. Here’s a pretty safe bet; Steve will not win 15 games in 2007 for Baltimore.

 Here are some other notable starting pitchers who didn’t throw 162 innings in 2006 but you should keep an eye on in 2007.

PITCHER	SO	BB	IP	SWIP
Ben Sheets	116	11	106	0.99
Francisco Liriano	144	32	121	0.93
Scott Kazmir	163	52	144.2	0.77
Pedro Martínez	137	39	132.2	0.74
Cole Hamels	145	48	132.1	0.73
Roger Clemens	102	29	113.1	0.64
Jimmy Gobble	80	29	84	0.61
Boof Bonser	84	24	100.1	0.60
Joaquín Benoit	85	38	79.2	0.59
Jered Weaver	105	33	123	0.59
A.J. Burnett	118	39	135.2	0.58
Scott Baker	62	16	83.1	0.55
James Shields	104	38	124.2	0.53
Rich Hill	90	39	99.1	0.51
Anthony Reyes	72	34	85.1	0.45
Byung-Hyun Kim	129	61	155	0.44
Juan Cruz	88	47	94.2	0.43
B. McCarthy	69	33	84.2	0.43
John Maine	71	33	90	0.42
Kyle Lohse	97	44	126.2	0.42

Ben Sheets has a chance to contend for the NL Cy Young award if he can just stay healthy. Sheet’s 10.55 K/BB ratio was the second best mark since 1900 for any pitcher who tossed at least 100 innings in a season (read that again for added effect).

Liriano, too bad you blew that elbow out kid.

Kazmir hopefully won’t blow his shoulder out. If he can stay healthy, he could be “the” breakout starter of the AL in 2007. Kazmir’s SWIP improved drastically last year with better control (0.40 in 2005 to 0.77 last year).

Pedro Martinez might have had a career-high ERA (4.48), but he still pitched pretty well. Pedro is a great late round pick to stash on the IR until he returns from shoulder surgery mid-season.

Keep an eye on Cole Hamels, the NL’s version of Scott Kazmir. Hamels is legit and it’s only a matter of him staying healthy to prove it, though he has failed to remain injury free more often then not in his short professional career.

The Twins are also in pretty good shape too with youngsters Boof Bonser (0.60) and Scott Baker (0.55) looking to make their marks at the backend of the Twins rotation.

Other notables who didn’t make the under 162 IP list include:

0.41  Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco

Johnson slowed in the second half, but he still was a top pitcher who was grabbed off waivers in most leagues (12 wins, 3.10 ERA). Nolasco could end up closing considering the uncertain situation in the Marlins bullpen this year, which gives him added value.

0.37  Chuck James

James went 11-4 last year for the Braves and looks to have a bright future. However, a lack of dominating stuff could lead to some uneven performances throughout the year.

0.36  Daniel Cabrera

Cabrera is a confounding mixture of simply devastating stuff and an utter lack of control. Last season Cabrera had a K/9IP ratio of 9.55 (157 K in 148 IP), but despite not even throwing enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162 IP), he still led the AL with 104 BB. Well worth a late round flier because his posses an arm that has been touched by the gods.

0.18 Noah Lowry

What the hell happened here? After 172 Ks in 2005, Lowry fell to only 84 in 2006 with a 4.74 K/9IP ratio (down from 7.56). His control was virtually unchanged, but unless he misses a few more bats in 2007 his results aren’t likely to improve.

0.16 Mark Mulder

Mulder will likely miss a large portion of the first half after offseason shoulder surgery. I’m willing to give him a mulligan after his injury plagues season, but I’m not spending more than a couple of bucks on him.

0.01  Chad Billingsley

The darling of the Dodgers young pitchers, Billingsley went 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA as a rookie, but with 59 Ks and 58 BB he certainly has a long way to go before he should be considered as worthy of anything more than a very late round grab.

 
*** For the full list of SWIP leaders from 2006, please visit: WildPitch.com

In PART III, I will tackle the relievers.