For a change, this week we will take a look at some baseball gainers and decliners going into the All-Star break. Some aspect of this feature will continue on in the Exchange for all future editions, so keep your eyes peeled for lists of players most of you will wish you had been smart enough to pick up on draft day. Rest assured gentle readers, this list is written from personal pain and not gloating…most of the time.

On the Rise

David DeJesus, Outfield, Kansas City Royals
.288 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 31RBI, 63 Runs Scored!

For the record, this guy is actually on my main roto team. In terms of fantasy ball, this guy has a lot to offer in the form of average, power production and even a few stolen bases – but his dominant stat is clearly the massive number of runs he scores. Pretty amazing for a Royal and the nice thing about DeJesus is that he is probably available for a reasonable price or trade in many leagues. Underestimated and overlooked are two words that describe DeJesus well, and that adds up to a good producer for a low price. If you have the means, definitely acquire your very own DeJesus…he is exquisite.

Hunter Pence, Outfield, Houston Astros
.345 Batting Average, 11 Home Runs, 40 RBI, 36 Runs Scored

Hands down Pence was the prospect I most wanted to score at the league draft, and I missed out on him to a person who is essentially my draft clone – we like WAY too many of the same players. Houston manages to produce some fine talent, especially pitchers, but Pence looks to become a real leader for the team both on the field and in the clubhouse. While his price in most leagues right now is obviously high, Pence will be worth it if he can be held for future seasons. This is the perfect kind of player for a rebuilding team to trade for, or for a contender to play on a daily basis. Strong buy recommendation.

Jeremy Guthrie, Starting Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles
4-2, 2.63 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 69 Strikeouts

Since Mike Mussina left town, the Orioles have been looking to put together a decent pitching staff…and they are unfortunately still looking. However, this season more than any there is some hope for the legions of Orioles fans. Guthrie, Erik Bedard, and perhaps Daniel Cabrera (if he ever settles into quality consistency) make for an interesting start to a quality rotation. While the Orioles have so many holes to fill that it is hard to see them getting the ship on course anytime soon, these young pitchers, and Guthrie in particular (because we all know Bedard is a money talent) could become real values for upcoming seasons. 2007 will not do anything but season Guthrie, but if he keeps up the good pitching for the second half, then he could be a nice value for 2008 that should be gotten for cheap. Buy low and hold.

Casey Kotchman, First Base, Los Angeles Angels
.298 Batting Average, 9 Home Runs, 38 RBI, 32 Runs Scored

Casey Kotchman is dead! Long live Casey Kotchman! Remember when Kotchman and Dallas McPherson were the great young hopes of the Angels’ organization? The team, baseball experts, and fantasy managers everywhere counted on these two young guns to slot into the Anaheim lineup and become impact players overnight. Well, both players came up, went down, came up again and then down some more – their performance never really delivered on the promise, so other players got their jobs. The nice thing is that Kotchman is only 24 and has been given plenty of time to mature. So far in 2007, he has been exactly the kind of hitter that the Angels needed, and has been providing some protection to Vladimir Guerrero in the lineup that he has desperately needed. As a result of his fine play, the Angels as a team have gotten a lot better and as a result they are thriving atop the West these days. While the secret is out on Casey, he can likely still be had for a reasonable cost in most leagues – especially those NOT in California. Strong buy and hold recommendation, this kid is finally for real.

On the Decline

Randy Johnson, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks
4-3, 3.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 72 Strikeouts

When he is able to pitch there is still a lot to love, but the nagging back injuries and that lanky frame are surely turning this season into a nightmare (at best). The plain fact is that no scheduled start for Johnson is safe or a sure thing, and as a result RJ owners have no choice but to put him in their starting lineup with serious trepidation and a good backup plan in case of spontaneous back pain. You want to count on this guy, and the plain truth is that you cannot. Here is hoping he has a more stable second half, but at this point sell him fast for the best you can get because there is surely an optimist in your league willing to trade for Johnson.

Josh Johnson, Starting Pitcher, Florida Marlins
0-3, 7.47 ERA, 2.43 WHIP, 14 Strikeouts

Running with the theme of dumping on players named “Johnson,” Josh is another (younger) Johnson that also faces injury demons. Still, since he is only 23 years old there is a lot of hope for Johnson to heal up and settle back into the rhythm that led to 133 strikeouts in 2006. For now, he is a huge risk and not worth an active roster slot on any fantasy team. Of course, if your league has a minor league system then Johnson would be fine to hold onto…for next year (maybe). Watch, wait and see for now, but this guy is a candidate for a sell order if the right opportunity comes along.

Julio Lugo, Shortstop, Boston Red Sox
(Statistics too pitiful to print in this space unless you like steals)

What else can be said but that Theo Epstein has had – at best – mixed success with his free agent pickups. Lugo was brought in to be the table setter for one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball, and he has ended up being one of the worst statistical hitters in the game. The Red Sox expected more from the man and the position, and they have given Lugo all the rope necessary to hang himself with during the first half. While some still believe that Julio is primed to make up for his deficiencies in the second half, there are already rumors flying that have the Red Sox and White Sox in discussions about a trade that would include Lugo as well as other things, not the least of which is a pile of Red Sox cash to pay off yet another bloated (and poorly conceived) free agent contract. Forget about missing Edgar Renteria…how about Orlando Cabrera? Sell Lugo now and for whatever you can get because any team he goes to (in actual real-life baseball) is not likely to see any more out of the disappointing shortstop this season than he has already shown.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Outfield, Boston Red Sox

One of the highlights of this past week was watching crazy-fast Jacoby Ellsbury play above his head with the Red Sox. The rookie got a chance to play a few games with the big boys this week, and his hustle and energy were invigorating for the viewers and his teammates alike. So…why the heck did they send the kid down? In truth, this is only a minor setback for the player who is considered one of the finest prospects in the Red Sox system. After having seen his play so far, it is hard to imagine him actually being much worse than Coco Crisp…and for a whole lot less money to boot. Sure, Jacoby has stuff to work on, and the trip back to Pawtucket may well have been the indication that something serious is afoot behind the scenes (like a Red Sox trade), but it is hard to believe Boston would actually deal such an electric young talent. The nice thing in all this is that if the Red Sox retain him, and a deal for Coco Crisp materializes down the road, Red Sox fans may be in for a real treat in 2008 with Ellsbury playing outfield for the Sox on a more permanent basis. That would be pretty cool, but until all the mystery regarding trade talk goes away at the deadline, Ellsbury is a hard guy to have a strong opinion about. Should he stay with the Red Sox, Ellsbury becomes a hold recommendation, but current owners should watch the trade winds carefully and be ready to sell-sell-sell if the opportunity arises.

Excelsior!

Have a question or comment for Chris? Email him at chrismeyer@sportsgrumblings.com.