Assuming that you have now read the explanation of SWIP, here is the simple equation that we will use to calculate what follows.

SWIP = (K – BB) / IP

Remember, the 2006 ML average for SWIP was 0.37. 

Also remember that SWIP might be a better indicator of future performance for Relief Pitchers (RPs) since the majority of relievers rely on hard stuff and the strikeout. Certainly there are relievers that don’t, but in general, most relievers rely at least somewhat on the K. Therefore, SWIP might be able to point to a few relievers who possibly had an artificially high ERA in 2006 because of one or two bad performances. Or perhaps, a pitcher was just unlucky in 2006 and a similar performance in 2007 would likely result in much better overall numbers. With that, let’s take a look at relief pitchers to see how the did when measured by SWIP.

Also, to read about how the Starting Pitchers stack up, CLICK HERE.

*In the discussion below, I have reviewed every ML pitcher who earned at least 1 save during the 2006 season (to see the entire leaderboard, scroll to the end of this article where every pitcher who earned a save is listed).

RELIEF PITCHERS

2006 SWIP LEADERS – RELIEVERS

Houston also had two pitchers on the top 24 list, though most people might be slightly surprised at who they are. For all his failings last year, and a 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP are nothing short of really bad, Brad Lidge still managed to save 32 games and strike out 104 batters on the season. He also managed to finish the year with a 0.91 SWIP, the same mark as Jonathan Papelbon, so the stuff is certainly still there. After the top handful of closers are gone, there is no reason you should shy away from Lidge this year. Also thriving in Houston was the unheralded reliever Trever Miller. With a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 50.2 IP, he certainly was solid last year. However, he allowed only 13 BB on the season which allowed him to post a SWIP of 0.84, or better than the A’s Huston Street who posted a 0.76 mark. Miller certainly is no better than 3^rd or 4^th in the Astros bullpen as far as saves go, but he could offer solid value as a late round pick in NL Only leagues.

Speaking of Street, two other A’s pitchers are right behind him on the list. Justin Duchscherer took over the closers duties when Street went down with an injury early in the year, but Duchscherer ended up missing time himself with tendonitis in his elbow. He is second in line for saves with the A’s, and has posted a solid SWIP over the past three years (0.57), and a better mark the last two (0.76). Right behind Justin was Kiko Calero (0.74), a pitcher who, because of a lack of save chances, is likely best suited to be drafted in AL Only leagues. Still, there have been few pitchers as steady as Calero the past four years as he owns a 3.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.90 K/9IP ratio and a 0.73 SWIP in that time.

Located below are a few of the notable omissions from the top 24 list. Remember the Major League average for SWIP in 2006 was 0.37.

0.66  Joel Zumaya

Zumaya brings 100 MPH heat, so as long as he can stay away from that Guitar Hero video game, maybe he can keep his forearm healthy. Regardless, it seems like its only a matter of time before he gets a chance to close since Tigers closer Todd Jones had 37 saves last year with just 28 Ks to post a scary low 0.27 SWIP last season.

0.64  Chad Cordero

Cordero is the undisputed closer in Washington. Though he failed to live up to his 47 save season of 2005, he had only 29 last year, his 0.64 SWIP last year was actually better than his 2005 mark (0.59). Just goes to show you, that you can’t judge a reliever solely by his save total.

0.61    Mike Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink

Mike Gonzalez is no longer the closer in Pittsburgh but a setup man in Atlanta. Since the Braves also acquired Rafael Soriano (0.73 SWIP) this offseason, the question becomes who will step in when Bob Wickman fails (0.54 SWIP)? Linebrink has been the subject of trade rumors all winter, and he could likely do a solid job as someone’s closer if given the chance considering his 0.64 SWIP mark over the past three years.

0.60    Akinori Otsuka

Otsuka will be relegated to setup duties with Eric Gange in town to close, but if you draft Gagne and don’t handcuff him with Otsuka, you might find yourself listening to one of those sappy country songs wondering where it all went wrong.

0.59     Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera

Odd to see the two best closers of all-time finish with the same mark. Hoffman continues to have success despite a fastball that barely reaches 88 MPH anymore. Still, he has had three straight seasons of 40+ saves, and his SWIP is still strong despite the declining speed on his fastball (2004-06: 0.71). Rivera’s SWIP declined last year because of a huge reduction in his K-rate (Rivera has a career 7.99 K/9IP ratio, last year it was just 6.60). Don’t fret, he will still pile up saves (10 straight years of at least 28 saves) and post stellar ratios (an ERA below 2.00 four years running), even if he isn’t as dominating as he once was.

0.55    Scott Proctor

Proctor might have been the Yankees MVP on the pitchers mound last year. Besides sucking up 102.1 innings, Proctor also posted 89 Ks. While his numbers the previous two seasons in New York were fairly scary (5.81 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), Proctors’ SWIP mark actually improved in the season’s second half of 2006 despite the heavy workload (0.65).

0.54    Bob Wickman

I spoke of Wickman above when discussing Gonzalez and Soriano. The bottom line is that Wickman is old, has a history of arm problems, and is about 60 pounds overweight. He might make it through the year, but with those issues squarely against him, I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

0.44    Joe Borowski

Borowski came out of nowhere last year to put up a hard fought 36 saves. However, Borowski failed an offseason physical because of his shoulder which is seemingly held together by duct tape. Borowski hasn’t had a solid SWIP since 2003 (0.69), and I just don’t seem him doing so this year. To cover themselves, the Indians brought in Keith Foulke to battle with Borowski for saves, but that plan will now be scrapped since Foulke has retired. 

0.41  Ryan Dempster

Dempster has been given the kiss of death for a closer; a vote of confidence from his manager. Dempster failed miserably to build upon a strong second half in 2005 by posting a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2006. Funny thing, his career marks are 4.83 and 1.55, so should anyone have been surprised? Teammate Bobby Howry was much more effective last year (3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) and he also had a better SWIP (0.70).

0.36  Salomon Torres

Torres inherits the closers on in Pittsburgh with the trade of Mike Gonzalez to Atlanta. Torres converted 12 of his last 13 chances last year, but even with a 1.22 ERA in the second half of the season his WHIP was still 1.43 after the break. Also, don’t forget that Torres’ 0.36 SWIP was below the major league average of 0.37 in 2006. Setup man Matt Capps is a possible sleeper for saves after posting 9 wins, a 3.79 ERA and a 0.55 SWIP as a rookie.

0.26    Armando Benitez

Benitez reported to camp and said he wants to put last season behind him. He claimed that he is finally healthy and that he will once again be a top closer. Last season he certainly wasn’t (3.52 ERA, 1.57 WHIP). Benitez does own a career 0.70 SWIP. The Giants have no real alternatives though the could turn to youngster Brian Wilson if Benitez fails or they don’t work out a trade, though Wilson has thrown only 30 innings in his career with a 0.07 SWIP.

0.24  Jason Isgringhausen

Word out of St. Louis is that Jason is progressing well from hip surgery and that he should make his spring training debut around March 15^th. It remains to be seen whether or not his health will enable him to close at the start of the year. If he doesn’t, the most likely alternative will be Adam Wainwright, though at this point he Wainwright is penciled into the starting rotation. Wainwright posted a 0.67 SWIP during the regular season and an otherworldly 1.34 SWIP in 9.2 post-season innings.

The worst reliever in baseball who threw at least 30 innings? How about Chad Gaudin who tossed 64 innings for the A’s with a SWIP of (-0.09) with 36 K and 42 BB.

So in the end don’t be afraid to use SWIP as a way to look into the past to determine how effective a pitcher has been in controlling his own destiny. SWIP isn’t going to revolutionize the way that any of us do business, but it can be used unsuccessfully by the astute fantasy player to augment the information currently at ones disposal to offer a more complete picture of the men who make their living 60 feet 6 inches from homeplate.