5. Jason Schmidt – Los Angeles Dodgers (34 years old)

Schmidt was slowly trending down in every major category for the last four years: His K/9 has steadily dropped while his walks, hits, and homeruns allowed have all gone up.  Playing half of his games in Chavez Ravine should help stop the regression a bit, assuming his defense doesn’t let him down. Schmidt is still an excellent pitcher, but just be aware of the way he’s been trending and don’t overpay on name value.

Jason Schmidt 2007 Projections

GP	GS	W	L	Sv	CG	Sho	IP	RA	ER	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
32	32	14	9	0	0	1	205	100	92	94	187	1.37	4.04

6. John Smoltz – Atlanta Braves (40 years old)

Smoltz has been filthy since his return to the starting rotation in 2005. Last season he struck out more than 200 batters for the first time since 1997, and there are enough other 40 year olds getting it done in the league to think he can do it again in 2007.  His K/BB ratio was 3.83 last season, and it’s that type of control that enables Smoltz and other studs like Schilling, Martinez, Clemens, and Mussina to keep getting it done as they get older.  There’s no reason to shy away from Smoltz in 2007.

John Smoltz 2007 Projections

GP	GS	W	L	Sv	CG	Sho	IP	RA	ER	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
34	33	18	8	0	0	1	217	89	83	54	164	1.20	3.43

7. Ben Sheets – Milwaukee Brewers (28 years old)

Ben Sheets is a heartbreaker. If he could manage to stay healthy, there’s a very good chance we’d be talking about him as the best pitcher in either league…and yes that includes Santana. Over at The Hardball Times, Jeff Sackmann did an article called “Ben Sheets is Awesome” which should be mandatory reading for anyone who enjoys pitching. Essentially - and this is all you need to know about Sheets looking forward to 2007 – Ben Sheets is the only pitcher in the history of the game (50 innings minimum) to average more than a strikeout per inning and less than one walk per nine innings.  He AVERAGED 9 Ks and less than 1 BB per game in 2006. Gamble on this one.

Ben Sheets 2007 Projections

GP	GS	W	L	Sv	CG	Sho	IP	RA	ER	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
29	29	10	11	0	0	0	168	69	63	28	168	1.08	3.36

8. Chris Young – San Diego Padres (26 years old)

Young had, on the surface, a very solid year in 2006 going 11-5 with a 3.46 ERA and 164 strikeouts for the Padres.  But there is good reason to expect a regression in 2007…a few in fact.  Young is an extreme flyball pitcher, and while that doesn’t hurt so much at home in San Diego, he still has to play half of his games on the road.  He was also extremely lucky in 2006, sporting a miniscule .232 BABIP (Batting Average on ball put into play - .290 is about average). He’s still a good pitcher to own, but expect that ERA to climb back up closer to 4.00.

Chris Young 2007 Projections

GP	GS	W	L	Sv	CG	Sho	IP	RA	ER	BB	K	WHIP	ERA
32	32	14	9	0	0	0	177	74	69	61	164	1.15	3.49