Other
youngsters who excelled by this measure include:
Anibal Sanchez (63.2, 8th place). Be careful here because
despite excellent numbers last year (10-3, 2.83 ERA), Sanchez has experienced
some shoulder soreness in the offseason.
Teammatate Josh Johnson (61.4, 13th) also put up tremendous numbers in
his first season (12-7, 3.10 ERA), though he too has experienced pain (elbow).
He might not be ready to start the season on time, so monitor his situation
even more closely than Sanchez'.
Chuck
James
(59.9), struggled a bit in the second half last year despite a 8-4 record (4.11
ERA, 1.29 WHIP) but was still solid overall (11-4, 3.78 ERA). Think Tom
Glavine and you likely won't be too far off in 2007.
John Maine had a solid first season for the Mets (3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP).
Actually, he was better than solid according to AGSS (59.2). Maybe the
Mets knew what they were doing when they set him as one of their five starters
this year.
Some
notable omissions from the AGSS list include:
Matt Cain and Dan Haren (tied for 27th with a 58.2 AGSS)
These two Bay Area hurlers will look to fill the #2
spot in their respective rotations and both come with sizable upside in 2007.
Jeremy
Bonderman (35th with a 57.7 mark)
Bonderman has taken incremental steps each year in
his growth. Is this the year he becomes a stud?
Barry Zito (40th with a 57.3 mark)
Zito
will attempt to show Cain the way in San
Francisco, though at least last year, Zito might have
been able to learn a thing or two from Cain.
Justin
Verlander (43rd
with a 56.9 mark)
Verlander needs to forget about his poor second half (4.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) and
keep throwing darts at hitters.
Erik Bedard (47th with a 56.3 mark)
Bedard
had his first season of double-digit wins (15) and an ERA below 4.00 (3.76).
Felix
Hernandez
(54th with a mark 55.3)
The
bloom is off the rose after a slight misstep last season (4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP),
but don't be the one in your league who overlooks this horse.
Some
pitchers who might have done a little better than you thought would
include:
Jason
Jennings and
Clay Hensley (57.8, tied for 32nd)
Two
pitchers who may not rate highly in fantasy circles because of less than
impressive numbers in WHIP (Jennings
1.37, Hensley 1.34) and Ks (142/122). Nonetheless, they certainly gave their
teams plenty of chances to win last year.
Cole
Hamels
(57.4, good for 37th)
Watch
out for Hamels, almost all the indicators are pointing well up with this guy.
If he can just stay healthy, he could be a top-15 starter in the NL this year.
Really, he's that good.
Pedro
Martinez
(57.2, good for 41st)
That
4.48 ERA was pretty deceiving. Pedro still had 137 K in 132.2 IP.
Bret Tomko (56.4, good for 46th place).
Now
how many of you would have pegged Brett Tomko as a better performer according
to AGSS than Ervin Santana (56.2), Chien-Ming Wang (55.9),
Josh Beckett (54.2) or Andy Pettitte (54.1)? Really? You're gonna
sit here and try to tell me that you knew that? Is that your nose growing
Pinocchio?
So there it is. A brief look into the world of Games Scores. While AGS
and AGSS may not be something you use
to argue the strength or weakness of a pitcher with your buddies, it can
assuredly help you in determining the relative consistency of a pitcher that
you might consider for inclusion on your fantasy team this year. Peak
performances are great, they are what we are all striving for, though
consistently strong outings are more valuable in the long run than having to
try and play the guessing game when it comes to determining whether or not to
start one of your pitchers.
AVERAGE GAME
SCORE SEASON – EQUATION
STEP I
You
begin with the GS total of a pitcher.Pedro Martinez started 31 games in
2005. Here are his pitching numbers: 217 IP (651 Outs), 208 K, 159 Hits, 68 ER,
69 Runs (therefore 1 UER), 47 BB
STEP II
The
next step in the process is to take the GS total and multiple that number by 50
(since the original GSC starts out with a baseline of 50).
GS
(31) x 50 = 1550 which equals our GSC
Points for the Season.
STEP III
For
the IP after the 4th inning you would figure out the total like
this:
2
[IP - (GS x 4)]
Pedro
pitched 217 innings.
2
[217 – (31 X 4)]
2
[217-124]
2[93]
= 186
186 points for
IP after the 4th inning for the equation.
STEP IV
Simply
figure the pitchers AGSS for the
entire season.
Pedro:
=
1550 + Outs + 2(IP after the 4th)+K– 2(Hits) – 4(ER)– 2(UER)– BB
=
(1550 + 651 + 2[186] + 208)– 4(68) – 2(1) – 47– 2(159)
=2201 + 394 – 272 – 2 – 47 – 318
=
2595 – 639
=
1956
STEP V
You
then take the final number from Step IV and divide that by the Games Started total in order to arrive
out our final score…our AVERAGE GAME
SCORE SEASON (AGSS).
Pedro:
1956 / GS 31
AGSS
= 63.1
What
AGSS says is that for each start
Pedro made in 2005, his Average Game Score was 63.1.
***One last
note.
The numbers used for IP after the 4th inning are
"guesstimates."I worked under the
assumption that every game the pitcher was on the mound he threw at least 4
innings (so I just multiplied his GS total by 4 in order to find out how many
IP he had that exceeding the 4th inning). Obviously, this is not the
case in all instances, so if you would like to make this number more accurate,
simply go through each pitchers game log to find out which games he did not
pitch at least 4 innings and make the necessary adjustments to his IP "bonus"
point total.