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SABR Grumblings: Game Scores
SABR Grumblings: Game Scores
By Ray Flowers | Published  02/25/2007 | SABR Grumblings - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
GSC top-ten pitching performances of '06 (cont)

Other youngsters who excelled by this measure include:


Anibal Sanchez (63.2, 8th place). Be careful here because despite excellent numbers last year (10-3, 2.83 ERA), Sanchez has experienced some shoulder soreness in the offseason.

Teammatate Josh Johnson (61.4, 13th) also put up tremendous numbers in his first season (12-7, 3.10 ERA), though he too has experienced pain (elbow). He might not be ready to start the season on time, so monitor his situation even more closely than Sanchez'.

Chuck James (59.9), struggled a bit in the second half last year despite a 8-4 record (4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) but was still solid overall (11-4, 3.78 ERA). Think Tom Glavine and you likely won't be too far off in 2007.


John Maine had a solid first season for the Mets (3.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Actually, he was better than solid according to AGSS (59.2). Maybe the Mets knew what they were doing when they set him as one of their five starters this year.

Some notable omissions from the AGSS list include:

Matt Cain and Dan Haren (tied for 27th with a 58.2 AGSS)

These two Bay Area hurlers will look to fill the #2 spot in their respective rotations and both come with sizable upside in 2007.

Jeremy Bonderman (35th with a 57.7 mark)

Bonderman has taken incremental steps each year in his growth. Is this the year he becomes a stud?

Barry Zito (40th with a 57.3 mark)

Zito will attempt to show Cain the way in San Francisco, though at least last year, Zito might have been able to learn a thing or two from Cain.

Justin Verlander (43rd with a 56.9 mark)
Verlander needs to forget about his poor second half (4.54 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) and keep throwing darts at hitters.


Erik Bedard (47th with a 56.3 mark)

Bedard had his first season of double-digit wins (15) and an ERA below 4.00 (3.76).

Felix Hernandez (54th with a mark 55.3)

The bloom is off the rose after a slight misstep last season (4.52 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), but don't be the one in your league who overlooks this horse.

Some pitchers who might have done a little better than you thought would include:

Jason Jennings and Clay Hensley (57.8, tied for 32nd)

Two pitchers who may not rate highly in fantasy circles because of less than impressive numbers in WHIP (Jennings 1.37, Hensley 1.34) and Ks (142/122). Nonetheless, they certainly gave their teams plenty of chances to win last year.

Cole Hamels (57.4, good for 37th)

Watch out for Hamels, almost all the indicators are pointing well up with this guy. If he can just stay healthy, he could be a top-15 starter in the NL this year. Really, he's that good.

Pedro Martinez (57.2, good for 41st)

That 4.48 ERA was pretty deceiving. Pedro still had 137 K in 132.2 IP.


Bret Tomko (56.4, good for 46th place).

Now how many of you would have pegged Brett Tomko as a better performer according to AGSS than Ervin Santana (56.2), Chien-Ming Wang (55.9), Josh Beckett (54.2) or Andy Pettitte (54.1)? Really? You're gonna sit here and try to tell me that you knew that? Is that your nose growing Pinocchio?

So there it is. A brief look into the world of Games Scores. While AGS and AGSS may not be something you use to argue the strength or weakness of a pitcher with your buddies, it can assuredly help you in determining the relative consistency of a pitcher that you might consider for inclusion on your fantasy team this year. Peak performances are great, they are what we are all striving for, though consistently strong outings are more valuable in the long run than having to try and play the guessing game when it comes to determining whether or not to start one of your pitchers.

AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON – EQUATION

STEP I

You begin with the GS total of a pitcher.Pedro Martinez started 31 games in 2005. Here are his pitching numbers: 217 IP (651 Outs), 208 K, 159 Hits, 68 ER, 69 Runs (therefore 1 UER), 47 BB

STEP II

The next step in the process is to take the GS total and multiple that number by 50 (since the original GSC starts out with a baseline of 50).

GS (31) x 50 = 1550 which equals our GSC Points for the Season.

STEP III

For the IP after the 4th inning you would figure out the total like this:

2 [IP - (GS x 4)]

Pedro pitched 217 innings.

2 [217 – (31 X 4)]

2 [217-124]

2[93] = 186

186 points for IP after the 4th inning for the equation.

STEP IV

Simply figure the pitchers AGSS for the entire season.

Pedro:

= 1550 + Outs + 2(IP after the 4th)+K– 2(Hits) – 4(ER)– 2(UER)– BB

= (1550 + 651 + 2[186] + 208)– 4(68) – 2(1) – 47– 2(159)

=2201 + 394 – 272 – 2 – 47 – 318

= 2595 – 639

= 1956

STEP V

You then take the final number from Step IV and divide that by the Games Started total in order to arrive out our final score…our AVERAGE GAME SCORE SEASON (AGSS).

Pedro: 1956 / GS 31

AGSS = 63.1

What AGSS says is that for each start Pedro made in 2005, his Average Game Score was 63.1.

***One last note. The numbers used for IP after the 4th inning are "guesstimates."I worked under the assumption that every game the pitcher was on the mound he threw at least 4 innings (so I just multiplied his GS total by 4 in order to find out how many IP he had that exceeding the 4th inning). Obviously, this is not the case in all instances, so if you would like to make this number more accurate, simply go through each pitchers game log to find out which games he did not pitch at least 4 innings and make the necessary adjustments to his IP "bonus" point total.




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