In this week’s installment, I’ll talk a little bit about buy low / sell high moves as well as a brief, but not all inclusive, tour of the league.

I am very big proponent of the buy low / sell high strategy. In fact, in leagues which do have a decent amount of trading, it is almost the only way you can win your league. Consider the following scenario. You and I have, basically, the same kind of team…a few guys outperforming their projections and a few others lagging behind their projections (for a variety of reasons). While you “hold” onto to your very good team (it may have finished in the money in the first half), I have sold off my “sell high” guys and have acquired some “buy low” guys. Thus, I have replaced guys who are (in theory) going to perform worse than they have so far for guys who are “due” to bounce back. I have maximized my team’s potential on two fronts since not only do I have my own players who are due to improve, but I’ve acquired other guys due to improve as well. And you? Your “bounce back” guys will likely be balanced by your “strong performers” and you should finish behind me.

Now all of this, of course, have the very important assumptions that you are actually “selling high” on a player (getting, seemingly, more than he is worth) and that you are acquiring the right players. If not, then your buy low / sell high strategy will not help and, in fact, could hurt.

Identifying the right sell high guy, in my opinion, has a lot to do with perception. A perfect example (for me) was Mike Lowell. The Boston third baseman had a 0.330 average with 10 HR, 41 RBI and 28 runs in the season’s first two months. Since then, he’s had a 0.261 average with 4 HR, 25 RBI and 12 runs. Now, you really didn’t need to be Nostradamus to know that Mike Lowell was a good sell high candidate. But the best reason for this, in my opinion, was the fact that Lowell has had a long career to indicate to you where his ability lies. He wasn’t going to hit 30 HR, bat 0.330 and drive in 123 runs.

Another solid example, in my opinion, was Ian Kinsler. As I mentioned earlier in the season, Kinsler was a great sell high candidate because his early season production made it appear he was poised to become the top second baseman in the AL. Kinsler had nine homers in April, but only one in May. He hit 0.298 in April, but only 0.174 in May. Perhaps if Kinsler had a 30 HR, 100 RBI season under his belt, this early season barrage might have led you to think he was on pace to shatter those values. At any rate, if you peddled Kinsler around the league and found a trading partner to give you a more proven performer, you are probably in a good position in your league right now.

What is a good example of a player who has done well but was not a sell high candidate in my opinion? Brian Roberts comes to mind. Through the seasons first two months, Roberts was batting 0.318 with 19 stolen bases and 36 runs (including a blistering 0.385 in May). That is a pace for 57 steals and 108 runs. However, Roberts hit 0.314 two years ago and scored 107 runs three years ago. Sure, the 57 steals would represent a career high, but you drafted Roberts for his steals and he’s only 29. Also, Roberts has exhibited a career high in patience this year, seeing 4.23 pitchers per plate appearance (he doesn’t have a season over four) and is also at a career high walks per plate appearance. Like I said…not a guy who (in my opinion) qualifies as a legit sell high candidate.

On the flip side, what are characteristics of good buy low candidates? For me, they have to be players who are not near an age where you would consider a slump to be the “beginning of the end”. Also, there needs not to be a player available (on the bench or in the minors) who could readily replace that player. A good buy low candidate has to have some sort of track record as a starting player. Remember, we aren’t talking about “speculating low” like a few of those guys I listed last week (Jason Kubel, Ross Gload, etc.). Here, in a buy low move, you are likely going to have to pay (hopefully at a reduced rate) for this player’s services.

So who are a few players who I feel fit the description as a good (and not-so-good) buy low candidates?

Good

Troy Glaus – The Toronto third baseman is only 30 years old and has but 12 homers. He can bunch them together, so I’d certainly target him if you need a power push. He is a tough guy who can play through injuries (obviously), so give him the benefit of the doubt. (Note: remember…I write these on Monday afternoon…Glaus hit two home runs Monday night)

Vernon Wells – Yes, Wells has already hit four home runs in July, but there is more there. Wells, with only 13 home runs on the season, has career highs in both plate patience and FB/GB ratio. So…he is seeing more pitches and hitting them in the air more often. For a 28 year old, I suspect we see a big power second half for Wells. At any rate, it is a good gamble.

Bad

Manny Ramirez – While having issues near the All-Star game might be “Manny being Manny”, his plate patience and GB/FB ratio this year certainly are not “Manny being Manny”. The 35-year old slugger is seeing fewer pitches at the plate this season and has a GB/FB ratio above 1 for only the 4th time in his long career. With 12 homers on the year, he is a decided long shot to reach 30 HR this season. Also, his batting average is the lowest it’s been since 1994. So…expect more of the same, I’m afraid. Manny will draw his walks and, likely, work on getting his average up…at the expense of even more power. Dare I say he doesn’t reach 20 HRs this year? It could happen. (Note: Um…he hit number 13 on Monday night)

League notes…

• Guess who I am? I am a former first round pick who is slight in build and am coming off rotator cuff surgery in the off-season. I lost my rotation spot earlier in the year only to be given a lefty set-up role. In something that is pretty amazing, my ERA has been in the 7’s since May 4th…which encompasses 27 appearances! I have been very consistently bad this season, even during my set-up role. Of the last nine runners I have inherited, I have allowed eight to score. I am not sure how I have not been released yet.



• With Melvin Mora on the DL, Aubrey Huff moved over to play third base which opened up the DL slot for Jon Knott. The normal arrangement should be Knott against lefties and Jay Gibbons against right-handers. Knott is nothing special, so Gibbons (if he gets hot) could find himself with full-time at bats at some point.


• Last season Maicer Izturis was needed and effective after the All-Star Break, with an OBP of 0.371. He also scored 43 runs and had eight steals. This season, with both Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar out of action, Izturis should be in the lineup everyday. If you have room for him, I’d get Izturis.


• I am not real sure why the Rangers haven’t recalled Jason Botts. Well, I take that back. I know why they haven’t recalled him; they are the Rangers. This is the same team that sat their hottest hitter (Brad Wilkerson) recently, even against right-handed pitching. At any rate, Botts is raking in Triple-A (an OPS over 1.000) and should get ample at bats once someone is traded from the Rangers (Mark Teixeira, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton) to open up a spot. Of course, they could always recall Nelson Cruz or Victor Diaz…or Nate Gold!

Have a comment or question for Don? Email him at donvisco@sportsgrumblings.com.