
Let's
take a brief moment to mention a few of the hurlers from the previous table on page 1.
Roy
Oswalt
leads the QS start list with 25, not a surprise considering his
excellent overall season that included an NL leading 2.98 ERA. What might
surprise some is the fact that he was tied for the league lead by Chris
Capuano who won only 11 games in 2006, a year after totaling 18 victories.
However, Capuano had nearly identical ERAs in both seasons (3.99 and 4.03), saw
his WHIP go down (1.38 to 1.25) and greatly improved his command (91 to 47
walks) resulting in a drastically improved K/BB ratio of 3.70 (up from 1.93 in
2005). He should be on all sleeper lists this year. John Smoltz finished
with 24 QS, tied for third overall with the best pitcher in baseball, Johan
Santana who led the AL in QS. Other pitchers of note include:
Tom
Glavine
(22 QS) – You shouldn't count on Glavine winning another 15 games this
year, but his ERA has been under 3.85 for three straight years and he had 131
Ks last year, his highest total since 2000.
Vincente
Padilla
(20 QS) – After back-to-back 14 win seasons in 2002-03, Padilla recorded
only 16 wins in 2004-05. Last year, he won a career best 15 games for the
Rangers.
Nate
Robertson
(20 QS) – This guy kinda slips through the
cracks with all the arms the
Tigers have, but his ERA and WHIP have both improved in each of the past three
seasons.
Jason
Jennings
(20 QS) – Jennings moves to Houston after his best big league season
though he was actually a better pitcher in Colorado last year (5-5, 3.56 ERA,
1.43 WHIP) than he was on the road (4-8, 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP).
Dontrelle
Willis
(20 QS) – Even in a season where he won 10 less games than 2005, Willis
still pitched well enough to give his team a chance to win more times than not
(20 QS in 34 starts).
So
there are the Quality Start leaders. However, there is more to this
story than just what you can see on the surface, and that is what I will
discuss in PART II.
PART
II – QUALITY START PERCENTAGE
After
spending the previous section detailing the ins and outs of the Quality
Start (QS), I will spend PART II describing to you that while knowing QS numbers are valuable, it's the
context in which these outings were earned that really speaks to the value of
the number listed.
QUALITY
START PERCENTAGE
If
you look at Kelvim Escobar, at the bottom of the QS list above
with 20 such outings, you
will notice that he started only 30 games in 2006 for the Angels. Near the top
of the list is John Smoltzwho had
25 QS, but notice that he started 35
games for the Braves. Doesn't it stand to reason that Smoltz would have more QS than Escobar since he had five more
starts? And that is where Quality Start
Percentage (QS%) comes in.
To
determine QS% we take the pitchers QS total and divide it by his total games
started (GS).
QS / GS = QS%
Therefore
we can determine Escobar's QS% by the
following simple equation:
20
QS / 30 GS = 0.667.
This
means that 67% of Escobar's starts were considered a QS based on the established rules of QS%.
How
does QS% change our "raw" QS leaderboard totals? Well, here is our
revised QS table which lists the
hurlers by their QS% (minimum 15 Quality
Starts).
|
PITCHER
|
GS
|
QS
|
QS%
|
|
Roy Oswalt
|
32
|
25
|
0.78
|
|
Chris Capuano
|
34
|
25
|
0.74
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
32
|
23
|
0.72
|
|
Johan Santana
|
34
|
24
|
0.71
|
|
Brett Myers
|
31
|
22
|
0.71
|
|
Brandon Webb
|
33
|
23
|
0.70
|
|
John Lackey
|
33
|
23
|
0.70
|
|
John Smoltz
|
35
|
24
|
0.69
|
|
Tom Glavine
|
32
|
22
|
0.69
|
|
Carlos Zambrano
|
33
|
22
|
0.67
|
|
Kelvim Escobar
|
30
|
20
|
0.67
|
|
Bronson Arroyo
|
35
|
23
|
0.66
|
|
Jake Peavy
|
32
|
21
|
0.66
|
|
Kevin Millwood
|
34
|
22
|
0.65
|
|
C.C. Sabathia
|
28
|
18
|
0.64
|
|
Nate Robertson
|
32
|
20
|
0.63
|
|
Jason Schmidt
|
32
|
20
|
0.63
|
|
Jason Jennings
|
32
|
20
|
0.63
|
|
Vicente Padilla
|
33
|
20
|
0.61
|
|
Erik Bedard
|
33
|
20
|
0.61
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
31
|
19
|
0.61
|
|
Justin Verlander
|
30
|
18
|
0.60
|
|
Kris Benson
|
30
|
18
|
0.60
|
|
Derek Lowe
|
34
|
20
|
0.59
|
|
Barry Zito
|
34
|
20
|
0.59
|
|
Dontrelle Willis
|
34
|
20
|
0.59
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
32
|
19
|
0.59
|
|
Chris Carpenter
|
32
|
19
|
0.59
|
|
Clay Hensley
|
29
|
17
|
0.59
|
Roy
Oswalt, the overall leader in QS, still leads in QS% with 78% of
starts being of the "quality" variety. Remember the lefty who we gushed about
above, Chris Capuano? According to QS%, Capuano was the second best
pitcher in baseball last year. Mike Mussina and Johan Santana
finish in the top-5 on both lists, while the aforementioned Smoltz falls
from third in QS to 8th in QS%. Other pitchers worth
mentioning include: