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QUALITY STARTS in fantasy terms
QUALITY STARTS in fantasy terms
By Ray Flowers | Published  02/27/2007 | SABR Grumblings - (2007)
Ray Flowers
SG Senior Writer Ray Flowers'  work on baseball has been featured the past two years at SportsIllustrated with his weekly fantasy mailbag column (Ray also writes a weekly column for SI on hockey). The originator of SWIP and ABA (Average Bases Allowed), Ray often proposes counterintuitive ideas that are formed from in-depth statistical analysis that have helped lead to, amongst other things, a championship in the CBS Sportsline Experts Mixed League and a second place finish in the FSTA AL Only Experts League in 2006.
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View all articles by Ray Flowers
Quality starts by definition (cont)


C.C. Sabathia (64%) – Sabathia gets hurt every year, you can count on it, but he has still been between 188 and 197.2 IP the past four years. In 2006, C.C. posted the best ERA (3.22) and WHIP (1.17) of his career despite only winning 12 games for the Tribe. Sabathia also posted his highest K/9IP (8.03) since his rookie season and the best K/BB ratio (3.91) of his career making him a great target on draft day.

Curt Schilling (61%) – With only 31 starts last season, Schilling wasn't able to post a high enough QS total to make the first list, but he had a higher QS% than more than a handful of the pitchers who put up a higher overall total.

Justin Verlander (60%) – Over his last 10 starts in 2006, Verlander posted only 4 Quality Starts meaning he had 14 in his first 20 starts (70%). Which Verlander will show up in 2007?

Clay Hensley (59%) – Hensley had a very nice 2006 season, and he makes a great endgame target in mixed leagues. Hensley keeps the ball on the ground pretty well, and he saw an almost 2 run drop in his second half ERA (2.66 down from 4.57 in the first half).

Andy Pettitte (57%) – Pettitte is the only guy who produced at least 20 QS who doesn't also appear on the QS% list. The reason is simple. Andy had "only" 20 QS on the season and since he led the league with 35 starts, not enough of his outings were strong enough, percentage wise, meaning that his QS total was largely the result of opportunity, not performance.

So there it is, my two-part discussion of Quality Starts. A life-changing bit of information? Well, certainly not. But it can easily be another one of the tools in your toolbox as you move toward building your team for the 2007 season and that has to be worth something right? Don't forget to take a look at how many chances a pitcher had to accumulate Quality Starts because you don't want to be swayed only by opportunity without placing it in context.



Ray Flowers, a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) and the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), can be reached with comments and questions at: rayf@sportsgrumblings.com.



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