He might have many failings, but Adam Dunn is a monster when it comes to OPS.
|
The trade deadline is fast approaching for Major League Baseball and with it comes the deadline for many fantasy leagues as well. As with the big leagues, many teams are deciding what to do to gear up for an August and September push or whether they want to sell off their non-keepers for some pieces for next year. Two months is a significant portion of the season, but with four months in the books, it does take some big production to move the needle as you make your push for the championship. So is there a particular group of players that would be better to target than others? As always, we cannot predict the future, but looking at some data from the past three years we can get some semblance of players that turn it up a notch after the All-Star Break.
This data took the top 280 players in at-bats for the year span of 2004-2006 then sorted them by their OPS. From there, the top 100 from each of the three seasons was lifted and isolated. Finally, only the players ranking in the top 100 from at least two of the three seasons were kept in the data set. This left 170 data points. There are 72 players found within the remaining data, 24 of which posted a top 100 OPS in each of the three seasons viewed. Before getting into the data itself, let’s look at the 72 players that made the list:
| # |
PLAYER |
| 1 |
Adam Dunn |
| 2 |
Adam LaRoche |
| 3 |
Adrian Beltre |
| 4 |
Albert Pujols |
| 5 |
Alex Rodriguez |
| 6 |
Andruw Jones |
| 7 |
Aramis Ramirez |
| 8 |
Aubrey Huff |
| 9 |
Barry Bonds |
| 10 |
Bill Hall |
| 11 |
Bobby Abreu |
| 12 |
Carlos Beltran |
| 13 |
Carlos Delgado |
| 14 |
Carlos Guillen |
| 15 |
Carlos Lee |
| 16 |
Carlos Pena |
| 17 |
Chase Utley |
| 18 |
Chipper Jones |
| 19 |
Coco Crisp |
| 20 |
Craig Monroe |
| 21 |
David DeJesus |
| 22 |
David Dellucci |
| 23 |
David Ortiz |
| 24 |
David Wright |
| 25 |
Derek Jeter |
| 26 |
Derrek Lee |
| 27 |
Emil Brown |
| 28 |
Eric Chavez |
| 29 |
Gary Sheffield |
| 30 |
Geoff Jenkins |
| 31 |
Grady Sizemore |
| 32 |
Hideki Matsui |
| 33 |
J.D. Drew |
| 34 |
Jason Bay |
| 35 |
Jason Giambi |
| 36 |
Jason LaRue |
| 37 |
Jason Varitek |
| 38 |
Jeff Conine |
| 39 |
Jeff Kent |
| 40 |
Jermaine Dye |
| 41 |
Jim Edmonds |
| 42 |
Jim Thome |
| 43 |
Jimmy Rollins |
| 44 |
Jorge Posada |
| 45 |
Juan Rivera |
| 46 |
Justin Morneau |
| 47 |
Kevin Millar |
| 48 |
Lance Berkman |
| 49 |
Manny Ramirez |
| 50 |
Mark Teixeira |
| 51 |
Matt Holliday |
| 52 |
Matt Murton |
| 53 |
Michael Barrett |
| 54 |
Michael Cuddyer |
| 55 |
Miguel Cabrera |
| 56 |
Miguel Tejada |
| 57 |
Mike Piazza |
| 58 |
Mike Sweeney |
| 59 |
Moises Alou |
| 60 |
Morgan Ensberg |
| 61 |
Pat Burrell |
| 62 |
Paul Konerko |
| 63 |
Rafael Furcal |
| 64 |
Rich Aurilia |
| 65 |
Richie Sexson |
| 66 |
Ryan Howard |
| 67 |
Shawn Green |
| 68 |
Todd Helton |
| 69 |
Travis Hafner |
| 70 |
Troy Glaus |
| 71 |
Victor Martinez |
| 72 |
Vladimir Guerrero |
Plenty of the usual suspects on this list, but just because they are superstars doesn’t mean they will be unavailable. If a sinking team holds one of these high-dollar stars, chances are they would be willing to unload him for some cheap youth or draft picks in 2008.
It’s About Time
If some of the names on this list do follow their trend of a second-half surge, it will be great news for their owners as 2007 simply has not gone according to plan for them. Some of those names include:
Andruw Jones – A recent 0-for-10 took away the steam he had gained in the batting average, but he is getting on-base at a .383 clip since the break and his seven July homers (including four since the break) is his highest monthly total so far this season.
Aubrey Huff – He has actually dipped in production since the break, but he could likely be had for a song in any AL league so he might be worth a shot to see if he can keep up the trend.
Craig Monroe – Has hit for some power this season, but otherwise he has been awful. A .222 average will sink a batting average in a heartbeat, as will the .269 on-base percentage. It would take a week to ten days of hot play to merit a pickup.