How much impact will Mark Teixeira have on the fantasy standings? John looks at some previous deadline day deals to find out.

Along with the passing of the major league baseball non-waiver trade deadline, July 31st also marks the trading deadline for many fantasy leagues across the country. This week in Statistics 101, I will be looking at some of the great major league baseball acquisitions to give you an idea what kind of return you might expect from a player you pick up at the deadline. Remember, while players traded to new teams today have a new environment to motivate them, players acquired in your fantasy league are still capable of getting hot over the last two months and driving you to a pennant, even if they didn’t change addresses in real life.

In many fantasy leagues, the category with the most room to gain ground is saves. After all, most teams only have 1-3 players contributing to the category, so another player is worth 33 to 100 percent of that total. Last year, the Atlanta Braves acquired Bob Wickman from the Cleveland Indians for minor league catcher Max Ramirez 10 days before the trade deadline. You might remember Ramirez from recent headlines – he was just traded to Texas for Kenny Lofton earlier this week. Wickman appeared in 28 games for Atlanta in 2006, racking up 18 saves and posting an ERA of just 1.04 in 26 innings. Those 18 saves probably represented a few points in the standings, even if the ERA didn’t do that much to help your team.

Using Wickman’s sparkling ERA as an example, a team with 1,000 innings and a team ERA of 4.25 would have their ERA lowered by about 8 points (to 4.17) if they added 26 innings of 1.04 ERA. Nine points of ERA is nothing to sneeze at, but likely represents only a point or two in the standings – especially when the struggling teams start trotting out higher-ratio starters and spreading things out. To really impact your team’s ERA, you need to add a spectacular starting pitcher like Zane Smith.

Smith was actually acquired a few days after the deadline (August 8th, 1990) when the Pirates traded Scott Ruskin and Willie Greene to Montreal for Smith back when Pittsburgh baseball was relevant. (Oh, I forgot to mention – the Pirates also added a player to be named later to the Smith deal. Eight days later they sent along a minor league outfielder named Moises Alou to complete the trade). Smith started 10 games for the Pirates, posting a record of 6-2 and twirling two shutouts. He also posted an ERA of just 1.30 over 76 innings. For our hypothetical 1,000 innings, 4.25 ERA team, Smith would have lowered the team ERA to 4.03 – likely a difference of 3-4 points in a fantasy league. Of course, it’s not always easy to find a pitcher who can post an ERA of 1.30 down the stretch, but if you can get one, the impact is significant.

On the offensive side, the lone ratio category (batting average) is even more difficult to influence, and is unlikely to be altered much by one player. The San Francisco Giants acquired Randy Winn from the Mariners on July 30, 2005 in exchange for Jesse Foppert and Yorvit Torrealba – perhaps not the Mariners’ finest trade. Winn proceeded to go on a tear for the Giants, hitting .359/.391/.680 in 58 games. That performance netted win 83 hits in 231 at-bats; for a typical fantasy team hitting .275 in 5,500 at-bats, Winn’s heroics would raise their average just three points (.278) – maybe accounting for 1-2 points in the standings unless batting average is a very tight category.

While it is possible that that 3-point swing could account for a couple of points in the standings, a bigger gain would be made by replacing a poor hitter with a tremendous half-season like Winn. Replacing a .240 hitter with Winn would bump a team all the way up to .280, probably gaining another point or two in the standings in addition to the 1-2 gained just by adding Winn. Clearly, the gains here are not as easily attained as the gains from adding a closer, but the potential to add some crucial points is still available.

Winn also hit an impressive 14 home runs during his time with the Giants in 2005, but perhaps the best post-trade performance by a hitter was authored by Mark McGwire. McGwire was traded by the Oakland A’s to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 31st, 1997 (10 years ago today, as I write this column… suffice it to say, a lot has happened since that day). The A’s got a package of TJ Mathews, Blake Stein and Eric Ludwick for McGwire, who was hitting .281-34-81 in 105 games for Oakland. McGwire went on to post the highest post-trade home run total in history for a player traded at the deadline, and also the highest home run total ever for a player traded mid-season. In just 51 games, McGwire bashed 24 home runs for the Cardinals, finishing the season at .274-58-123. While McGwire would go on to break Roger Maris’ record of 61 home runs with 70 bombs in 1998, he would have hit 73 that year if he had only matched the pace he established after being traded to the Cardinals in 1997.

So, if you are looking to acquire a hitter or a pitcher at the deadline and need them to make a huge impact, do not despair – it is possible. You just need to find a player who has a historic half-season waiting for you to uncover as the Cardinals did in 1997.

Questions and comments may be sent to johnfranco@sportsgrumblings.com