How much can Johan Santana really help your roto team from here on out?

With the trading deadline now just a memory, the movement amongst teams will be relegated to waiver trades in which the pieces must pass through all 30 teams in order to be traded.  That isn’t to say that there won’t be any instrumental moves, but rather that their likelihood has dropped significantly.  While some leagues adhere to the July 31 trading deadline as their own, many leagues push it out into August and most often somewhere around the September 1 mark.  With a little less than two months left in the season, it is obviously harder to move the needle in many categories, especially if the deficit is significant.  That said, nothing is set in stone until the final day of the season. 

Today, I will look at pitchers in September.  As you make your final run, do the top pitchers historically hurt or help the cause?  I took the top 50 in earned run average leaving out Daisuke Matsuzaka and taking No. 51, Greg Maddux, since Matsuzaka is a rookie.  From there, I took the September numbers from the last three seasons (where applicable) in order to observe what kind of impact this year’s best might have on September pennant races in fantasy leagues across the nation.   I broke the groups down by innings pitched, since some of the younger guys’ sample sizes are too small to put any in stock in one way or the other.  Meanwhile, the veterans that have pitched several September innings in each of the three seasons analyzed (2004-2006) will be those that will be worth targeting (or not targeting depending on the numbers) in leagues that still allow trading and those that we should expect the most similar production from given their deep track record. 

The first group has pitched 100+ innings in the past three Septembers and they are sorted by ERA:

There are absolutely no surprises amongst those first four as they are true, bona fide aces that you expect nothing but the best from.  Johan Santana has been amazing after the All-Star Break for several years now and he even turns it up another notch in September, usually as his Minnesota Twins are vying for a playoff berth.  The win count for Roy Oswalt might take a dip this year only because he is definitely on one of the league’s weaker offensive terms and could struggle to get the adequate run support.  Prior to this season, he was usually in a pennant race with the Houston Astros.  Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia should be studly again as both of their teams will be in a battle for the playoffs and relying heavily on their arms to secure that berth. 

Doug Davis is a huge surprise at the No. 5 spot, but to be honest it was a pretty big surprise to find him in the top 50 for earned run average this season when I first started compiling the data.  He seems to correct his biggest problem in Septembers past as his WHIP goes down to 1.19.  His WHIP for the past three years in all months outside of September is 1.41 and it currently sits at a grotesque 1.58 through August 7 this year. 

It runs pretty much status quo in terms of expectancy from there with Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano and John Lackey.  Each of them should be involved in a pennant chase and even one of their teams falls out of contention, each would be a more than desirable piece for a contending fantasy team.  Then we reach another surprise.  What Paul Byrd doesn’t isn’t flashy or particularly awe-inspiring, but he gets the job done, especially in September.  As a Cleveland Indian, he should be right in the thick of a pennant chase, so numbers like his previous Septembers should net some victories as well.

The rest of the group causes the red flag to be raised.  Sure, the sub-4.00 earned run averages of Derek Lowe, Mark Buehrle and Greg Maddux are hardly awful, but how much can they really help late in the season when it takes truly exceptional production to move up in the standings?  Meanwhile, Aaron Harang and Tim Hudson, former teammates in Oakland, have put up numbers that can actually cost a team the title if done in the wrong set of circumstances.