Chris Young has been brilliant so far this year, but how is he historically down the stretch?
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Group two features those that have pitched between 70 and 99 innings, again sorted by ERA:
|
RK |
Player |
ERA |
W |
L |
SV |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
K:BB |
|
1 |
Ben Sheets |
2.21 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
85.2 |
68 |
21 |
11 |
95 |
0.93 |
8.6 |
|
2 |
K. Escobar |
2.68 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
20 |
11 |
87.1 |
67 |
26 |
23 |
73 |
1.03 |
3.2 |
|
3 |
Matt Cain |
2.85 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
82 |
53 |
26 |
30 |
63 |
1.01 |
2.1 |
|
4 |
Josh Beckett |
3.38 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
15 |
98.2 |
83 |
37 |
36 |
90 |
1.21 |
2.5 |
|
5 |
Chris Young |
3.51 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
14 |
14 |
74.1 |
55 |
29 |
25 |
62 |
1.08 |
2.5 |
|
6 |
Dan Haren |
3.61 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
18 |
14 |
92.1 |
94 |
37 |
20 |
71 |
1.24 |
3.6 |
|
7 |
Gil Meche |
3.92 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
15 |
13 |
80.1 |
72 |
35 |
28 |
59 |
1.25 |
2.1 |
|
8 |
Ted Lilly |
4.06 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
16 |
16 |
91 |
83 |
41 |
42 |
72 |
1.37 |
1.7 |
|
9 |
John Smoltz |
4.10 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
21 |
10 |
74.2 |
86 |
34 |
19 |
55 |
1.42 |
2.9 |
|
10 |
Erik Bedard |
4.17 |
4 |
6 |
0 |
14 |
14 |
73.1 |
81 |
34 |
37 |
68 |
1.61 |
1.8 |
|
11 |
Oliver Perez |
4.42 |
4 |
5 |
0 |
14 |
14 |
77.1 |
66 |
38 |
43 |
83 |
1.41 |
1.9 |
|
12 |
J. Vazquez |
4.44 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
15 |
15 |
97.1 |
87 |
48 |
31 |
108 |
1.22 |
3.5 |
|
13 |
J. Washburn |
4.69 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
13 |
13 |
73 |
74 |
38 |
23 |
41 |
1.33 |
1.8 |
|
14 |
Jeff Francis |
4.76 |
7 |
3 |
0 |
15 |
15 |
81.1 |
100 |
43 |
23 |
47 |
1.52 |
2.0 |
|
15 |
Noah Lowry |
5.46 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
16 |
16 |
92.1 |
103 |
56 |
29 |
60 |
1.43 |
2.1 |
The quality has thinned out significantly as we move into this group with only the top three delivering truly excellent production in September. And one of them, Sheets, might not even pitch come this September. The second tier of Josh Beckett, Chris Young, and Dan Haren doesn’t have a big-time track record of September success, but two of the three (Young & Haren) are first in earned run average in their respective leagues, so given their breakout seasons they remain supremely viable targets come September. And in Boston, Beckett should continue to pile up victories and figures to pitch right around the 3.38 earned run average of past Septembers.
As mentioned in the previous group, it’s not that the earned run averages that are slightly over four from Gil Meche, Ted Lilly, John Smoltz, and Erik Bedard are going to crush a team, not by any stretch. Rather that should they remain on that trajectory, they aren’t likely to help move the needle positively in earned run average during the stretch run. Plus, outside of Meche, the group has put out a set of less than desirable WHIP totals. The message isn’t here to cut bait on these guys, especially as Bedard and Lilly enjoy career years, rather don’t let their production to date cloud your judgment when making your pennant run trades in late-August.
Of the remaining pitchers, only Oliver Perez is worth a roll of the dice while the others present legitimate risk for any team hoping to capture their league’s championship during a September battle for first. Javier Vazquez might not be a bad option given his solid WHIP and stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Chicago White Sox have been awful this year, but they are playing as of late, so the risk of run support might be somewhat alleviated should they continue to play the inspired they have of late.
