How's the King rate?
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The next group has pitched between 45 and 69 innings and represents the final group where the data set is large enough to put legitimate faith in it one way or the other. Once again, the pitchers are sorted by ERA:
|
RK |
Player |
ERA |
W |
L |
SV |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
K:BB |
|
1 |
Andy Pettitte |
2.17 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
66.1 |
54 |
16 |
13 |
46 |
1.01 |
3.5 |
|
2 |
Scott Kazmir |
3.18 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
10 |
9 |
51 |
38 |
18 |
33 |
63 |
1.39 |
1.9 |
|
3 |
C. Wang |
3.94 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
64 |
74 |
28 |
13 |
30 |
1.36 |
2.3 |
|
4 |
F. Hernandez |
3.96 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
63.2 |
57 |
28 |
18 |
59 |
1.19 |
3.3 |
|
5 |
Aaron Cook |
4.71 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
65 |
74 |
34 |
18 |
28 |
1.42 |
1.6 |
|
6 |
Ian Snell |
4.82 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
10 |
9 |
56 |
58 |
30 |
28 |
53 |
1.54 |
1.9 |
|
7 |
Joe Blanton |
4.91 |
5 |
4 |
0 |
13 |
10 |
69.2 |
80 |
38 |
19 |
38 |
1.43 |
2.0 |
|
8 |
Brad Penny |
5.86 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
50.2 |
67 |
33 |
19 |
48 |
1.71 |
2.5 |
|
9 |
John Maine |
6.10 |
3 |
4 |
0 |
11 |
11 |
51.2 |
45 |
35 |
32 |
40 |
1.50 |
1.3 |
|
10 |
M. Batista |
6.25 |
1 |
9 |
11 |
28 |
9 |
67.2 |
75 |
47 |
37 |
42 |
1.67 |
1.1 |
Andy Pettitte is known for his fall pitching, so it is not surprising to see him top this list. I wouldn’t expect anything less again this season, especially with the way the New York Yankees have been playing. The run support is almost a guarantee so he should win a handful of games; meanwhile his other numbers are flawless across the board. Scott Kazmir could be poised for another big September and might even be giving his owners a preview of what is forthcoming as he has put together a 1.38 ERA in his last five starts dating back to July 13.
Chien-Ming Wang and Felix Hernandez are the wildcards here as they could perform much better than their previous September numbers or stay status quo leaving their owners likely running in place in terms of the standings. Hernandez’s sparkling WHIP and strikeout numbers could translate into a better earned run average this September, but he has been inconsistent all season long, so who really knows what to expect?
The numbers don’t bode well for the rest of the group and I would probably be concerned if my team was relying on one or more of them for a title chase in September. I doubt many teams are relying on Miguel Batista for much of anything outside of a second-tier starter, but the other guys have been good enough in the past or throughout the season to merit being key cogs in their fantasy team’s rotation. Proceed with caution on each of them.
The final group has pitched fewer than 45 innings meaning their data set is too small to really put stock into it one way or the other. The reason for the lack of innings ranges from injury to the simple fact that they were not part of their major league ballclub during the seasons analyzed. The rest of the bunch sorted by ERA:
|
RK |
Player |
ERA |
W |
L |
SV |
G |
GS |
IP |
H |
ER |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
K:BB |
|
1 |
Rich Hill |
2.64 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
8 |
6 |
44.1 |
28 |
13 |
14 |
50 |
0.95 |
3.6 |
|
2 |
Cole Hamels |
2.78 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
32.1 |
25 |
10 |
13 |
39 |
1.18 |
3.0 |
|
3 |
Roy Halladay |
3.00 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
6 |
6 |
27 |
27 |
9 |
8 |
19 |
1.30 |
2.4 |
|
4 |
S. Marcum |
3.30 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
9 |
5 |
30 |
33 |
11 |
10 |
24 |
1.43 |
2.4 |
|
5 |
Chuck James |
3.35 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
7 |
6 |
40.1 |
29 |
15 |
17 |
35 |
1.15 |
2.1 |
|
6 |
F. Carmona |
4.50 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
4 |
4 |
20 |
21 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
1.60 |
1.2 |
|
7 |
J. Verlander |
4.82 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
28 |
34 |
15 |
12 |
18 |
1.64 |
1.5 |
|
8 |
Sergio Mitre |
4.82 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
0 |
9.1 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
1.21 |
2.0 |
|
9 |
Chad Gaudin |
5.73 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
0 |
22 |
31 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
2.00 |
0.8 |
|
10 |
Gorzelanny |
6.14 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
6 |
4 |
22 |
22 |
15 |
10 |
8 |
1.45 |
0.8 |
|
11 |
J. Guthrie |
6.52 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
9.2 |
11 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
1.74 |
1.0 |
The top three are held in pretty high regard and many owners will covet their services in September regardless of the fact that they don’t have a whole lot of data and I can’t blame them. Of the rest, only Justin Verlander would be classified as a top-tier starter at this point so taking a chance on the others to perform as well as they have so far this season in September shouldn’t carry too much risk because they shouldn’t be much more than the fourth starter on their respective teams.
Questions and comments may be sent to Paul at paulsporer@sportsgrumblings.com
A baseball and football columnist online since 1999, Paul's work has been seen in a variety of major sites, including Sporting News and FOX Sports. Paul's been known to dabble into other sports as well, having also covered hockey and even participated in multiple fantasy golf leagues. Yes, Paul really has no life outside of sports, but we like it that way.