Senior Editor Mark Haverty's work has regularly appears in such places as FOX Sports and Sporting News, where Mark is one of TSN's lead minor league analysts. Mark has also been featured in multiple print publications and as a featured guest on multiple radio shows.
Jody Madron has been worn down by the long season – okay, by newborn twin girls, not the season, have done him in – so it is up to me to pick up the slack this week on the Game within the Game. Like Jody, I like his Ten Things I Just Don’t Know, so I will stick with that this week as we look at a topical subject today thanks to the yesterday’s big bomb by Barry Bonds (and for my take on the media reaction there, head over to Bullet Points here…), and that is home runs.
Ten Things I Just Don’t Know
I don’t know if it is too early to coronate him as an elite fantasy superstar, but Prince Fielder is most definitely looking like a high first round selection in fantasy leagues next year. How high do I like him? Really, really high – higher than Ryan Howard, for one. Sure, Howard does have an extra year of experience under his belt, but he also has way too many strikeouts – he is making Adam Dunn look patient this year – and while he was a solid prospect, he was never the prospect that Fielder was. Fielder has two more homers, a batting average 17 points higher, 13 more runs, 42 fewer walks, and less health concerns. While Prince might have less experience, with every homer he looks like the better, and safer, pick next year.
I don’t know if you are still paying attention to the Reds – even the people in Cincinnati are not at this point – but the previously mentioned Dunn is having a nice season for them. With 30 home runs already, Dunn is all but a lock to hit at least 40 home runs for the fourth consecutive season. Dunn’s average has also rebounded, although it is hard to say much about a .262 batting average other than that it is a lot better than the .234 he hit last year and the .247 he hit in 2005. Dunn should also be able to break the 100 RBI mark for the third time in four seasons after coming eight shy last year. Now if only the Reds would trade him to a team where he could really do some damage…
I don’t know if it is his knee problem or something else entirely, but the power just has not been there for David Ortiz this year. Heading into Wednesday night’s game in Anaheim, Ortiz has just 19 home runs on the season after hitting 54 last year. Since coming to Boston, Ortiz has not slugged fewer than 31 homers in a season, and he has been over 40 as an everyday player, but he looks like he might finish with less than 30 this year. Fantasy owners that counted on Ortiz to be their power anchor this year have certainly been disappointed.
I don’t know if I fully believe that Carlos Pena is “for real,” but I become more of a believer every day. Pena is tied for seventh in the majors in home runs with 26 despite having picked up just 47 at-bats in April while he tried to establish himself as an everyday player. Pena is 29 now, so he is far removed from prospect status, but it is not as if he was not once considered a stud prospect. Some players just take longer to develop and Pena, who finally found a team that would not give up on him, albeit because they really had no one else, might finally be there.
I don’t know how many more wins he might have been responsible for had he been called up sooner, but Ryan Braun and his homers are a big reason the Brewers are still on top. Despite having fewer at-bats than any of the top 21 home runs hitters in the game not named Bonds, Braun is tied for 18th in the majors with 21 homers. He is doing it with more than just the long ball, as he also has a .349 batting average, 10 stolen bases, 55 RBI, and 67 runs. At the beginning of the year, the discussion was, “who is the best National League third baseman – David Wright or Miguel Cabrera?” We might need to revise that question.
I don’t know how many home runs he lost to injury, but the one sad part of the Bonds story for me has been that it should have been Ken Griffey, not Bonds, that broke Aaron’s record. At the plate, in the field, and on the basepaths, there was no one better in the game than Ken Griffey was in the 1990s. His move “home” to Cincinnati in 2000 should have meant even more greatness for him, but the wheels would come off then. His 2000 season saw him belt out 40 homers, but the stolen bases dried up. Then, so did the power, as he would hit just 22 home runs in 2001 as he missed some time to injuries. That would be his first season in six years without at least 40 homers. 2002 would see him hit just eight. 2003 was not much better, as he belted out all of 13. Returning to some semblance of health in 2004, Griffey would knock out 20 that year. It took Griffey three years to hit just one more homer than he hit in his down year of 2000. 2005 was close, with 35, but disappointment returned last year as he was even more dinged up and hit just 27. Now, with 26 home runs this year, he sits just 11 shy of 600 career home runs, a mark everyone on the planet had him pegged to break years ago. How tainted will peoples’ memories of Griffey be by his Reds years? How many people will forget that he was one of the greatest ever in his prime?
I don’t know about you, but I want my home run hitters staying away from the Home Run Derby next year. It was death to Bobby Abreu, and it sent David Wright into a prolonged slump. This year, it sent Vladimir Guerrero into a 30-game homerless streak. Clearly, there has to be some fire behind all the smoke here. If my guy wins the home run derby on the Monday of the break, I’m selling him on the Tuesday.
I don’t know if this qualifies as a changing of the guard yet or not, but Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are the only two hitters in the top ten in the majors in homers this year that finished there last year. Names from last year guaranteed not to be there this year: David Ortiz, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, and Travis Hafner are all locks not to repeat, and Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Andruw Jones would all have some serious work to do.
I don’t know about you, but I’m still waiting for J.J. Hardy’s power to return. Yes, I know it has been over a month since he cranked one out, but he was way too good of a prospect, and too good of a hitter in general, for his early power explosion to have been a fluke. Call me delusional, but I think he will be a serious power threat at short next year too, and that he has a 30-homer season in him someday.
Lastly, I don’t know what the big deal is with Bonds breaking Henry Aaron’s record really is anyway, as it won’t last. Barring injury, there is no way that Alex Rodriguez lets Bonds’ final tally last long as the record. Bonds’ hold on the home run crown might last just slightly longer than Mark McGwire’s 70 mark, but that’s about it. A-Rod’s hitting 800, and that is a home run total everyone will get behind.
