STARTING PITCHING
Roy Halladay, RHP
A.J. Burnett, RHP
Gustavo Chacin, LHP
Shaun Marcum, RHP
Tomo Ohka, RP / John Thompson, RHP
The Jays are led on the hill
by one of the top 5 hurlers in the AL
in Roy Halladay who went 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2006. After two
straight seasons of under 150 IP, Halladay managed to hurl 220 innings last
year though he suffered from some forearm issues that he hopes to alleviate
with an offseason-conditioning program. Regardless of injury, Halladay has been
one of the best pitchers going the last six years with a 3.17 ERA and 1.13
WHIP. A.J. Burnett suffered his own injury issues (elbow) after signing a huge
$55 million contract to come to Toronto.
Though his K/9IP was slightly down in 2006 (7.83), his control improved to the
point where he produced a career best 3.03 K/BB ratio. Gustavo Chacin looks to
rebound from a season of injury an ineffectiveness. After a strong rookie
season (13 wins, 3.72 ERA), Chacin regressed to 9 wins and a 5.05 ERA in just
87.1 IP. Even worse, his K/BB was a terrible 1.24, and that just won't get it
done. Shaun Marcum's 2006 numbers were poor (5.06 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 78.1 IP),
though he did post a 7.47 K/9IP ratio. Marcum, a 3rd round pick in 2003, owns a
28-11 career minor league record with a 1.07 WHIP. The 5th spot in the rotation
will likely go to either Tomo Ohka (4-5, 4.82 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) or John Thompson
(2-7, 4.82 ERA, 1.56 WHIP), two pitchers who have had success in the past but
were injured last year.
2007 TEAM PROSPECTIVE
The Blue Jays own a strong
offense that was third in the AL
in average (.284), 4th in HR (199) and 4th in OBP (.348). The team added Frank
Thomas to the mix, and that combined with a full season of health from Alex
Rios means the offense could actually improve on last year's numbers. It will
also be interesting to see how Reed Johnson responds to being a full-time starter
from opening day after his career best season of 2006.
On the hill, the Jays have a tremendous closer (B.J. Ryan), though the bridge
to him is rather thin. The team also posses two of the top 10 arms in the AL at the top of its
rotation (Halladay, Burnett), but after that, it's essentially a crapshoot. If
Chacin is healthy and remembers how to locate his pitches, if Marcum can summon
up the dominance he showed in the minors, and if either Ohka or Thompson can
stay healthy enough to throw strikes, they could be OK. But that's certainly a
whole lotta "if's" isn't it?
BULLPEN
Projected Bullpen
Closer: B.J. Ryan, LHP
Setup 1: Brandon League,
RHP
Setup 2: Scott Downs,
LHP 
B.J. Ryan was spectacular in
his first season as the Jays closer as he looks to justify the 5-year, $47
million contract he signed with Toronto.
Besides producing his second straight season of 35+ saves (he had 38 last
year), Ryan posted a career best 1.37 ERA and 0.86 WHIP making him one of the
top 5 closers in baseball heading into 2007. Brandon League throws heat, in
fact he has scaled it back some in order to have better control (3.22 K/BB
ratio last year). He also posted a 1.01 WHIP in 42.2 IP as a middle reliever
last year and will likely serve as Ryan's setup man. Lefty Scott Downs had a
second straight year of average ratios (4.09 ERA, 1.34 ERA), but he limited
lefties to a .177 average during his relief appearances, the best mark in the
AL, and held all hitter to a .111 average with RISP while pitching out of the
pen, the second best mark in the league.
SLEEPER
Lyle Overbay, 1B. While Overbay certainly isn't a top option at
1B, if your strategy revolves around drafting players at positions with
scarcity, Overbay makes an excellent fallback option in the middle rounds at
first base. In his first year in Toronto, Overbay set career-highs in average
(.312), HRs (22) and RBIs (92), and offers at least a decent chance of
producing a .300-20-100 season long after the other top 1B are off the board.
BUST
Frank Thomas, DH. People
will be seduced by the power of the dark side with Thomas after his 39 HR, 114
RBI season for the A's in 2006. Don't forget a few salient facts. First, Thomas
might have dressed for 137 games last year, but he participated in just 108
games the previous two years. Second, Thomas hasn't hit .275 in a season since
2000. Third, he only qualifies as a DH, and who wants to waste an early pick on
a player with no position? And fourth, he will be 39-years-old, far too old to
think a repeat of 2006 is certain.
TOP PROSPECT
Adam Lind, OF/DH.
Lind is a good bet to break
camp with the big league club, though he could start the year at AAA as well.
Lind owns a .319 career minor league average, and if you add up his AA and AAA
numbers from last season, you get one hell of a line (.300-24-89-63 in just 125
games). Lind is, to be polite, a so-so fielder, so the question of where to fit
his bat in the lineup could easily arise considering the fact that Thomas will
be the team's DH (if healthy).
FIRST OFF THE BENCH
Matt Stairs, OF,
DH. Matt Stairs is basically Frank Thomas light. Certainly, Stairs has
seen better days, but he still continues to produce decent numbers in limited
chances. In fact, since 1996, Stairs has hit at least 10 HRs each year, making
him one of just 14 big leaguers to accomplish that, so for an end game pick in
an AL only league, he certainly isn't a horrid option.
