How is Alex Rios doing compared to Don's preseason billing?

On February 15^th of 2007, I emailed Mark Haverty, currently the Senior Editor at Sports Grumblings, to share with him my upside and downside guys for the coming year in the AL. For all intents and purposes the season is what it is and, thus, now would be a good time to review my selections. For this week, I’ll look at my upside guys and next week we’ll peruse the downside guys. The goal of this exercise is to see if the collective “we” can learn something from this experience. Note that what I wrote last February will be in italics and my comments will not.

Upside Alerts

Alex Rios – He was a superstar in April and May last year before getting sick. He’s ready for a 600 at bat season and this might be the cheapest he’ll go for in the next five years.

There were a lot of things to like about Rios entering 2007. He wasn’t a rookie, he had a few years of experience, he had depressed stats the previous year because of injury and he was entering his prime. Really…everything pointed to a break out year for 2007. The reality is that we could be looking at 30+ home runs for 2008 or 2009. Note that Rios has slumped of late (0 HR and 7 RBI during the past month), but I certainly would not discount him at all

Mike MacDougal – Bobby Jenks had an ERA over 5.00 in the second half last year. If Jenks falters early, MacDougal is not only a better pitcher now than earlier in his career, but also can allow Ozzie to play the “proven closer” card (MacDougal has 50 career saves)

I was so high on MacDougal that I drafted him for $3…which I felt was a bargain considering the problems Bobby Jenks was having this spring. Alas, MacDougal has had a poor season as his old nemesis (re: control) returned with a vengeance. I thought he was over it…but I was wrong. Perhaps the sore shoulder he had this season had something to do with it. Whatever the case, if MacDougal ever has a good run (next year…2009…etc.), invest.

Ian Kinsler – Missed 42 games and had two-thirds of his at bats from the seventh, eighth, or ninth slot. If he plays in 150+ games and creeps up the batting order, he could have a break-out year.

Kinsler came out of the gate like a shot, only to slump badly...and then get injured. He bats first or second now and has not been caught stealing in 16 attempts. He is a legit 20/20 guy going forward and should (if he is healthy) surpass the 100 run mark next year. Once again, his injury this year will suppress his final stats, so he could be a bargain in 2008.

Jeremy Reed – He is still young enough to have a big year and we would not be that shocked. I’d rather take a chance with Reed finding his potential than someone on the wrong side of 30. Take a flier at the end of the draft or on your reserve.

This projection was assuming of course Reed would make the team out of Spring Training, but he did not (hitting .238 in 63 at bats during March without a homer). He has not seen Seattle yet this year, but should be a September call-up. In Tacoma, he is hitting 0.293 with 12 homers. Basically, Reed will become a fourth or 5th outfielder for a decent team during the next part of his career. What he really needs is to, somehow, get an opportunity for at bats and then run with it. It may happen in 2008, it may happen in 2009… it may never happen. There are very good odds, though, that if it does happen, it will not be in Seattle. Perhaps in Minnesota, Pittsburgh, etc… some place with a lower profile. At any rate, I thought it was a good gamble at the time…certainly better than investing in a Rondell White.

Jason LaRue – He had a batting average on balls in play of 0.220 last year, which is shockingly low. This should correct itself. Also, he draws walks, has some pop, and is only being “pushed” by John Buck. Spend your dollar and grab him as your second catcher, especially so in OBP leagues.

LaRue currently has a batting average on balls in play of 0.200, which is appalling. I guess if you were really bad, you would have a very poor batting average on balls in play…so maybe he is just really bad. Perhaps the operative word in my analysis was “should.” I would take that chance again, though. At least he was very cheap and I was able to cut bait quickly.