All Joba, all the time.

New York Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain has pitched so well over the first ten innings of his major league career that many writers are searching for superlatives to describe his performance. You might have heard that he can be shoehorned into the category of “first pitcher since 1900 to give up no runs in his first eight appearances and at least one strikeout in each inning he worked during that time.” That category is certainly a mouthful, but it also seems more than a bit convoluted. Is there a way to put Chamberlain’s performance into a more understandable light? Before I attempt to do just that, I will issue two caveats: first, Chamberlain’s stuff really is that extraordinary, and second, it is a really, really small sample size.

In order to attempt to define Joba’s performance, I established the following criteria: a pitcher’s first “real season” (over 25 innings) resulting in a WHIP under 1.00, an IP/G under 3.00, and less than 60 innings worked. In other words, a dominant pitcher working in relief in his first season (excluding very brief cups of coffee). It turns out the list is pretty short. If you assume that the Yankees intend to move Chamberlain into the rotation next season, then there are two comparable pitchers to consider: Chris Sampson (Astros, 2006) and George Spencer (Giants, 1950).

Sampson started three games for Houston last year and relieved in nine other games. He worked a total of 34 innings, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He has worked almost exclusively as a starter this year, starting 19 games, working 117.3 innings with a 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Still, he makes for a poor comparison because he was 28 years old last season, and Joba is only 21 this year. Plus his K/9 last season was just 3.97.

Spencer did start one game in 1950, but he relieved in nine others, working 25.3 innings for the season. He allowed just 12 hits, posting a WHIP of 0.75 and an ERA of 2.49. Still, Spencer had youth on his side (23 in 1950), but he isn’t a great comparison either; he only started a handful of games the following two seasons (four games each) and he only fanned five batters in his first 25.3 innings.

If we relax the WHIP requirements, we find another interesting comparison: Clay Hensley. Hensley was 25 in 2005 when he worked 47.7 innings in 24 games (1 start), posting an ERA of 1.70 and WHIP of 1.05. He spent most of 2006 in the Padres’ rotation and posted a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Hensley had a K/9 of 5.3 in 2005, and his stuff is not as electric as Chamberlain’s, so he isn’t a great comparison either.

Yankee fans might not like to see the next comparison, and while this pitcher had better stuff than some of the others, his control was not as good as Joba’s. I am referring to Victor Zambrano, who worked 36 games in relief (no starts) in 2001, posting a WHIP of 1.05 and ERA of 3.16 for the Devil Rays. He started 11 games the next year and then 80 more over the next 3 years, but his control never reappeared. Still, his BB/9 in 2001 was just 3.16 in 2001, so this might be a cautionary tale after all.

The Dodgers brought up Ismael Valdez as a 20-year old in 1994 and asked him to work 21 games (1 start). He responded very well, posting a 1.09 WHIP and 3.18 ERA in 28.3 innings (in a strike-shortened year). Valdez was a very good starter for the next three years, posting ERAs of 3.05, 3.32 and 2.65 the following seasons. His strikeout rates were not bad as a starter, and he did fan a batter per inning in his first season, so Valdez might be the best comparison of all. I have to think the Yankees would be happy with a run of seasons like Valdez gave the Dodgers.

What will the future hold for Joba Chamberlain? Is he Ismael Valdez? Victor Zambrano? Clay Hensley? Given his age, his poise, his command, and his electric stuff, it’s likely that he will continue to blaze his own trail and defy comparisons. Or, maybe it’s more important to look at the circumstances than the results. Once upon a time, another team won 94 games with a very young, very talented starting pitcher working out of the bullpen. That pitcher worked 92 innings as a 19 year old, but started only six games while relieving in 19 others. He posted a 3.72 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but he turned out alright in the end. His name? Jim Palmer.

Maybe you think the Yankees should leave Joba in the bullpen? Here’s a list of 10 comparable pitchers meeting the criteria above (first +25 inning season, less than 60 IP, WHIP under 1.00, IP/G under 3.00):

1. Rob Murphy, 1986 Reds
2. Jose Valverde, 2003 Diamondbacks
3. Julio Solano, 1984 Astros
4. Cla Meredith, 2006 Padres
5. Pat Neshek, 2006 Twins
6. Jim Corsi, 1989 A’s
7. Jeremy Fikac, 2001 Padres
8. Steve Mingori, 1971 Indians
9. Doug Henry, 1991 Brewers
10. Pedro Martinez, 1993 Padres (no, not that Pedro)

Questions and comments may be sent to John at johnfranco@sportsgrumblings.com.