Ben's back - now what?

I began this season instructing all to be very aware of the probable playing time this year for each player you are considering. This takes on a bigger meaning at this time of year. With teams dropping out of the running and rosters expanding, playing time may deviate greatly from the first five months. This is not good news for fantasy owners in “points” leagues, many of which are heading into the playoffs. Before you make any moves, examine the likelihood of decreases in playing time. The top signs are: injury, players called up, contract status and salary.

Injury: Exhibit A is the Red Sox’ Manny Ramirez. Suffering from a strained oblique that needs rest to recuperate, Manny is likely sitting out a few games. However, as the Yankees rush closer to Boston’s favorites, Manny could be called into action. He could be out between five and fifteen games and standings will mean as much as recovery in determining the length. If you are being offered a sweetheart deal where you get Ramirez, think twice.

Players called up: Watch this weekend’s transaction list with a magnifying glass. Roster can expand and virtually all teams will be calling players up either immediately or as minor league seasons end. Compare any young stud with the player he might be replacing. Read what you can about prospective playing time. Points can only be accrued when the player appears so keep your starters active.   

Contract Status and Salary: Players who will be heading to other locations at the end of the year due to upcoming free agency or retirement may find themselves sitting as prospects get their opportunities. Also, teams fighting for the playoffs may make moves that otherwise would not seem likely. Exhibit B is the signing of David Wells by the Dodgers. Los Angeles is trailing both the Padres and Diamondbacks by three games for the division and wildcard races. They felt the need for an additional starting pitcher down the stretch and who came to mind but David “Boomer” Wells. The 44 year old lefthander was a free agent when signed on August 24th. He replaced Eric Stults in the rotation and may find his magic of old down the stretch. However, should the Dodgers falter and fall out of the playoff picture; Wells is unlikely to continue in the rotation.

Top Players

David Ortiz, Boston – Fantasy owners have been waiting for that ol’ time Papi home run thing. It has been a rough year as knee problems and shoulder soreness have contributed to a sub-par power season for Ortiz. Two home runs in the past three games with a couple of balls that just went foul have demonstrated a return to past power. His .500 slugging percentage is another clue. Of course, the injury to Ramirez may just mean Ortiz will be pitched around.

Ben Sheets, Milwaukee – Speaking of injuries, Sheets has been 11-4 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP this year. Great numbers, but he has pitched in only two games since July 5. That includes the August 29th start right after his activation from the Disabled List. After three seasons of 34 starts between 2002- 2004, Sheets has started only 22 and 17 times in the last two years. Currently he has been to the mound 20 times. With great caution, I would say he is one to acquire, especially if you are trying to make up distance on your top competitor. When Sheets is playing, he dominates. He may never strike out as many as he did in 2004 but his strikeout to walk ratio is always superior and he may well be the spark that reignites the Brewers fight for first in the N.L. Central.

Vernon Wells, Toronto – Another example of the injury bug. General Manager J.P. Ricciardi reported in the Toronto Star that Vernon Wells will need an MRI after the season. Perhaps that might explain why Wells is having his worst season since he became a regular in 2002. His 15 homeruns is eight fewer than his lowest during the six year span. His batting average and slugging percentages are also his lowest. This is a small consolation for those who own his stats but should keep all from counting on Vernon Wells to suddenly play like normal and produce power numbers.

Huston Street, Oakland – Staying with the injury theme, Huston Street has come on strong and should eclipse Alan Embree as co-closer as soon as the team starts winning. In nine of his last eleven appearances, Street has held the opposition scoreless and to one hit or less. Let me tell you a little story. In early July I made a multi-player trade that brought me Bob Wickman for the injured Huston Street. I decided that I needed a definite closer on a quality team to give me the saves points. As a closer, Wickman was unlikely to pitch long enough to give me negative points so that was a plus. Imagine my surprise when the Atlanta Braves designated their closer (my closer) for assignment. Adding injury to insult, Street has come back like gangbusters and I am now getting zero points from that slot. Baseball is a funny game.

Surprise Upturn

Milton Bradley, San Diego – I actually remember him playing in short season Single A ball in Burlington Vermont and if I have to hear one more time “He’s a gamer”, then I will… Well, his ability has never been questioned, just his head. Since joining the Padres, Bradley has hit nine homeruns and his OPS (on base plus slugging percentages) is close to 1.100. San Diego has needed offense and if he can keep from distractions, Bradley can do more for the Padres than Mark Teixeira will do for the Atlanta Braves. That is if he can keep himself from returning to the Disabled List for the fifth time this year. 

Mike Lowell, Boston – Who would have thought that Mike Lowell would be the most dangerous hitter on the Red Sox? For the past two weeks, Lowell has averaged .417 and driven in 14 runs. The 33-year-old, soon to be free agent could not have picked a better season to have big numbers. Twelve hits in a four game series against the White Sox got my attention.

Over Their Head

Paul Shuey, Baltimore Orioles – The worst experiment since Dr. Frankenstein created his monster. Shuey was attempting a comeback after retiring in 2005 with hip problems. However the year has been one of physical and pitching disaster. The 36-year-old Shuey was released by the Orioles this week and is unlikely to catch on with any other team this year. Personally, I hope he lets his career come to an end and he can open an auto dealership somewhere. But one never knows about next year and hope springs eternal in a ballplayer’s mind. Shuey will always be in my mind for allowing the last nine runs in the 30-3 game won by the Red Sox over the Orioles. However, he had given up nearly a run per inning prior to that. The year started with an Achilles tendon injury and ended with being released.

Geoff Jenkins, Milwaukee Brewers – Isn’t it time for this big man to fade into the sunset? Sure he is only 33 but his decreased production the past two years has been noticeable. Jenkins has four homeruns in the month of August but all were in a six day period. He hit but two in each of July and June. The Brewers have been on such a roll that it was not obvious that one of their mainstays was struggling but now that the team has dropped down, Jenkins’ lack of power has been brought to the forefront. His status as a platoon player has also robbed him of needed at bats. It has not been a good time to own the stats of Geoff Jenkins. Last year his slugging percentage dropped almost 80 points. This year, his overall numbers look good for the time played but his consistency does not. That can be acceptable in a Roto league but a head-to-head points league can be seriously hurt by Geoff Jenkins.

Questions and comments may be sent to davidkopacz@sportsgrumblings.com.